Remember the empty SA-7 antiaircraft missile launcher that was found last month near Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh? It prompted a significant Winds of Change briefing, with a lot of help from military analyst Donald Sensing. Now we have an explanation.
ABC News says the terrorist has been captured, is in custody in Sudan and is talking (Sudan... I'll just bet he's talking). He says he was the head of a cell operating in Saudi Arabia, casing U.S. air bases. One night they evaded Saudi security forces and fired one missile, but it failed to lock onto its target. He then became frightened, buried a second missile nearby and ran away.
OK, so he got close to the base and beat Saudi security. Yeah, well, I could probably do that. But buried the second missile and ran away?!? He's the best Al-Qaeda could do for a cell leader in Saudi Arabia, let alone a leader tasked with a dangerous mission like this one? They're in even more trouble than I thought.
The American Redeye missile, and the Soviet SA-7 knockoff, were notorious for having so-so infared targeting. Unless you were aiming at slow moving turboprop aircraft, they generally require a clear "up the tailpipe" look and have a low hit percentage. If you want improved results you need an SA-18, a Stinger - or far better still, the Swedish RBS-70.
Anyone using an SA-7 should have known this, and been trained for it. This guy wasn't, and he lost his nerve (some martyr you are)... and by the way, there were much better targets he could have picked for his missile. He's their local leadership?
I'm not saying all Al-Qaeda are buffoons, mind. Their ability to operate in Singapore, for instance, is an impressive feat. I am saying they'll have a lot of semi-competents at the local level, and the more we disrupt their international safe areas the more semi-competents we'll see.
People say you can't defeat terror networks by military means. Well, this joker proves why that isn't true. Look, we've all worked in organizations. Usually, 5-20% are very competent. Another 40-60% can get by. The rest are only semi-competent or sub-par. Kill enough of the competent ones, and what we're left with is "leadership" like this guy.
That threat, we can deal with.
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