Oh, man, what a mess. Colombia is in dire straits, up against the poster children for narco-terrorism. Peace efforts have collapsed in the face of FARC's predictable bad faith, prominent politicians have been kidnapped or assassinated, and the IRA-trained FARC are now beginning a major offensive against their paramilitary opponents. In response, there are reports that the government has just over 50 operational helicopters - a lethal shortcoming in a guerilla war.

U.S. aid is on the radar screen, but likely to be slow in coming since the Colombian government and its paramilitary "allies" aren't exactly human rights choirboys. The paras are probably involved in the drug trade themselves, and sit on the US State Department's list of terrorist organizations along with FARC.

Still, I say bite the bullet and arm the damn government. Yes, A.O.S. - all options suck. Still, doing nothing or arriving too late will be worse. Let's see, Marxist guerillas with major international drug connections and links to the IRA, not to mention influence in a number of surrounding countries beyond Colombia.

As a security issue, FARC makes the Cali drug cartel look like a day at the beach.

It gets worse. As FARC grows stronger (and as the Venezuelan economy continues to weaken under "yo-yo Presidente" Chavez), the threat to Venezuela and other countries also grows. They've been using Venezuelan territory as a base with Chavez' support, a fact that could well lead to cross-border hostilities soon. Regardless, the Venezuelans have created a serious long term problem. Even if Chavez disappeared tomorrow, trying to crack down on FARC from the Venezuelan side might tempt them to retaliate by hitting Venezuela's attractive oil facilities - especially Puerto Miranda and the compression plants in the Lake Maracaibo basin.

Need I mention that Venezuela is a major U.S. oil supplier?

Delayed aid is likely to escalate the Columbian conflict to full-blown civil war by the time it arrives. Which will make it that much harder to defeat FARC. Or curb its growing international influence.

Escalation has already begun. Reports note that the death toll in an isolated village where rebels and paramilitaries were battling rose Sunday to 108, with troops only now beginning to move into the region. The dead included many people taking refuge inside a church, which was hit by a mortar-bomb fired by FARC.

(Yes, Virginia, there is a UN investigation coming. Yes, Virginia, that investigation seems set to condemn the government for FARC's actions. No, Virginia, I'm not surprised either.)

For a detailed take on the Bojaya situation and some good general background on the Colombian situation, read the San Francisco Chronicle article (May 8, 2002). The Miami Herald also had some good coverage of the fighting. Note especially this passage:

The army believes 800-1,200 members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and 500-600 of their far-right foes are fighting around Bojaya and neighboring Vigia del Fuerte -- impoverished towns lying on the Atrato river. The Atrato is a hotly disputed, main artery for cocaine and arms smuggling across the porous jungle border with Panama.

There are other indications that this push is part of a larger offensive designed to recapture access to rivers and seacoasts in the North. The utility of such territory for narco-terrorists is obvious.

Amateurs focus on tactics. Experts focus on logistics. Strategically, FARC's offensive is a major push with large logistical implications. For our long-term security, that offensive needs to fail.

[Endnote: There's a lot more afoot in Venezuela that merits your attention. STRATFOR.com has consistently been my best source for that country, including detailed post-mortems on the aborted coup against Chavez and recent rumblings of another coup simmering below the surface. Their global focus is a real asset, and if world-wide geopolitics is a serious interest you might consider subscribing.]