Thanks to Jane Galt for pointing this one out. This great bit by Doug Turnbull really helps clarify a very confused policy situation. Even Colin Powell's actions made sense after reading this one, and that's saying something.

Game Theory grew out of some famous experiments around a situation called "The Prisoner's Dilemma." It was a simple way of analyzing conflict and cooperation, but Axelrod et. al. produced interesting results that showed both mathematical patterns and (better still) a lot of unexpectedly true-to-form insights into the dynamics of real human conflict. Game Theory has since been used to analyze a wide variety of political and business situations.

Doug does us all a great service by clearly explaining why each party is acting the way it does, and how their "payoff grids" relate. He argues persuasively that that the situation is not confused. Israel, The USA, and the Arabs are each acting in their own self-interest. Put them together, and the present situation is nearly inevitable.

Game Theory and the Middle East (part I)
Game Theory and the Middle East (part II)

Unfortunately, one of the most common results from prisoner's dilemma games is to produce the worst possible joint result for everyone, even though each party may be acting rationally on its own. That's happening here.

The overall dynamic that Doug describes encourages Israel's enemies, and badly undermines its ability to apply deterrence and prevent further escalation. Many people I know are on edge because they can sense this intuitively, though few do it as well as Peggy Noonan. Doug's contribution is to explain the dynamic's mechanisms and how it works.

On the other hand, Doug's game theory dynamic makes a lot of people in Europe and the Arab world happy. Here's why it shouldn't.