The winds of change are not always obvious. Analysts at the RAND Corporation lay out 10 international-security developments that aren't getting the attention they deserve in this month's issue of The Atlantic magazine:
- The West Bank Wall
- A Shrinking Russia
- The Hindu-Muslim Divide
- AIDS and African Armies
- The Tehran-New Delhi Axis
- Anti-Satellite Attack
- Defense-Industry Goliaths
- The Aircraft Carrier Shortage
- The Indus Water Fight
- Urban Warfare... to which I'll add
- China's Race Into the Oil Market; and
- Europe's looming pension crisis
I would add to this list 'The Unravelling of Latin America.'
Pay close attention to the emerging Habana-Caracas-Brasilia axis being actively developped by presidents Castro, Chavez, and Lula da Silva.
Do not ignore the Hizbullah-FARC-narcoterrorist collaboration that has resulted in the development of a terrorist training camp in Mato Grosso state of Brazil. Neither ignore the quiet re-starting of Brazil's mothballed nuclear program.
Now there's a comforting thought -- lax US immigration meets Hizbullah-trained latino terrorists with access to nuclear materials, or just a bunch of Cuban C-4.
Add to this FARC's clear involvement in Ecuador and with the attempted resurrection of Sendero Luminoso in Peru; Brazilian interference in Bolivia after an election so close it was settled by the Congress.
There are a LOT of quite negative developments in the region, and it doesnot appear that we are yet anywhere near up 'to speed on the magnitude of the problem.
>Brazilian interference in Bolivia after an election so close it was settled by the Congress.
Proof?
>Do not ignore the Hizbullah-FARC-narcoterrorist collaboration that has resulted in the development of a terrorist training camp in Mato Grosso state of Brazil.
Proof?
>Neither ignore the quiet re-starting of Brazil's mothballed nuclear program.
Hasn't happened. The Minister of Science made mention of it and it was quickly kiboshed with a major retraction. A few kooks talk about it on occasion, but it hasn't happened.
>Pay close attention to the emerging Habana-Caracas-Brasilia axis being actively developped by presidents Castro, Chavez, and Lula da Silva.
Wrong again. Lula has moved towards the center, he met with Bush for the third time last week and he has succeeded in pissing off the most fervent, doctrinaire members of the PT. Why take my word for it when you can check it out here. Castro is busy alienating his largest group of trading partners (the EU) on whom he now depends and Chávez has two problems: 1.) an economy that contracted 29% in the past year and 2.) facing aa plebiscite that if he blocks it, will cause him to lose the support of the OAS (who brokered the deal) and may very well toss him out of office. Neither of them have the resources to do much of anything, despite whatever revenue may flow to Venezuela through the oil purchase negotiated by Jack Kemp recently.
Early in Lula's presidency Chávez, made a statement that Chávez, Lula and Castro should form an "Axis of Good." That's as far as it went. Lula has won over the financial markets since then and received a lot of support from the center, including having a centrist party in Brazil join his coalition and a far left one leave his coalition. I don't always agree with Lula, but there is one indisputable fact about him that clearly distinguishes him from Castro and Chávez: he has always sought to achieve his goals through democratic means. Why would he abandon this now? The only thing that the US should be concerned about with Lula are his efforts to unite Mercosur and the Andean trade groups to deal with the US head on in the negotiations for the Free Trade Association of the Americas. They want to challenge the US on the protectionist policies, especially regarding steel and agriculture.
Yes there are problems in South America, especially with the Andean countries: Peru, Colombia and Venezuela all have serious problems, but the Southern Cone countries are making strides. Argentina has elected a president who so far has given the impression that he is dedicated to transparency. The jury is still out on Paraguay's new president who certainly has a tough job ahead of him. There is unrest in Bolivia, but that is hardly new and Chile continues to be a model for much of the region.
The gravest problems in Central America are in Guatemala, where corruption and support from narcotraficantes combined wth the attempted reemergence of the most human rights abusive leader in the 1980's appears to be setting things back.
The US/UK joint 2004 manifesto:
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
Pithy John S, you are a regular Charles Atlas.
Thanks