Donald Sensing posted about this article "Aging Europe Finds Its Pension Is Running Out" when it first came out Saturday in the NY Times, but since I commented on the same thing previously, I think it's worth further discussion.
Here are some selected clips for you to consider...
One study by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, predicts that the median age in the United States in 2050 will be 35.4, only a very slight increase from what it is now. In Europe, by contrast, it is expected to rise to 52.3 from 37.7.and
In Germany, among women born in 1950, 14.9 percent of west Germans and 8 percent of east Germans are childless. By comparison, of women born in West Germany in 1965, 31.2 percent are childless along with 26.4 percent of women born in East Germany. Even more striking are the differences by social strata. Fully 39 percent of the most educated German women are childless, the government's statistics show, compared with under 25 percent for women with less education.and
But more important in Germany, as in the rest of Europe, is the rapid growth in the numbers of the elderly. In 1950, 30 percent of the German population was under 20 and only about 2 percent was over 80. By 2050, under-20's are expected to be only 16 percent, while the over-80's are estimated to reach about 12 percent.
The consequences of this shift are already striking, Mr. Raffelhüschen said. "At the moment, we really have two working people and one retired person," he said. "In 2035 or so, every worker will support one retired person."The sum of it is the Europeans are out of the game of world power save in the most negative sense. They will not be a meaningful player on the world stage unless they go the way of Yugoslavia or individual nations like France join the Islamists against America. The problem is all the signs and portents I see point that way of ex-Yugoslavia. There is no way that the EURO will survive. It's collapse will cause economic repercussions that will lead to nations of Continental Europe being over run with Le Penn style candidates and parties as the only credible nationalist alternative to the Pro-E.U. elites. The only good thing is that the passions of youth won't be driving this.
"The only good thing is that the passions of youth won't be driving this."
Excepting the "guest workers" they bring in to do the scutwork they're too old/snooty for.
If it keeps up, Europe is definately screwed, but this kind of thing could reverse quickly and dramatically.
For instance, seems like I read recently that France is undergoing something of a baby-boomlet, and among indigenous french people at that -- not among immigrants or their progeny (though their birthrates are already high). I don't know how reliable the news was or how significant the boom.
It does appear as though Europe has a deathwish, even though it supposedly "understands the art of living",
what i would love to see is a groupblog based website dedicated to freedom and democracy in europe. something along the lines of a hybrid between command post and tech central station. it could be manned by bloggers like merde and dissident and so many others who have a passion for europe coupled with disgust towards european stagnation, delusion, and anti-americanism.
wonder if we can find a few people to make it happen...
Whaq,
What I recall of reading that recently was that it was of French born women of Algerian heritage responsible for the boomlet.
I guess another consideration that hasn't received much attention is where the respective immigrants are coming from.
For example, according to US INS figures from 2002, five countries account for 40% of all legal immigrants to the US (Mexico, India, China, the Philippines, and Vietnam). No doubt, the vast bulk of illegal immigrants are from similar countries, especially Latin America. By comparison, most of Europe's immigrants (excluding those immigrants from Eastern Europe) are from the Middle East, North Africa, India and China.
It may not be entirely PC to raise a question that compares immigrants (comparitive quality is a loaded term) but history would tend to support my guess that the US will have a far easier time assimilating its immigrants than most European nations will.
Additionally, a significant bulk of immigrants to the US are Catholic whereas many to Europe are Muslim. This observation is not to demonise Muslims but to point out that there will be differences in relative assimilation due to those factors as well.
Future economic/demographic projections for more than 10 years forward
are worthless and should be ignored,
because so many variables that are involved are unpredictable.
One should look instead for stable trends.
I see just one such: the percentage of
private pension savings vs future total
pension spendings.
The US is light years ahead in this respect
compared to Europe. This is the real European time-bomb ticking;
and the way the European tax system has evolved, there is no conceivable practical solution to the problem before the revolution sweeps away the whole socialist house of cards.
Balagan: take a look at http://www.samizdata.net/blog/