Kamil Zogby is not fully recovered yet, so we won't be able to run a full briefing today. Instead, I'm just going to blog 3 articles, representing different poles of prediction and thinking about the Roadmap and its impact on Israel's existence:
* Anne Bayesfsky's detailed piece, "The U.N. and the Assault on Israel's Legitimacy: Implications for the Roadmap". By accepting many of the Roadmap's key assumptions, she argues, Israel has advanced the process of its own delegitimization and eventual destruction. A searing, detailed indictment of the U.N., and a serious critique of a U.S. policy that she believes will deeply endanger Israel's existence if the process of regional reform fails.
* Ze'ev Chafets, meanwhile, has a different take. Sharon is playing along with the Roadmap and handing over his cheque, believing that it will never be cashed because the Palestinians' cheque will bounce and then Israel will be given a free hand. Once it does, the next Intifadeh will begin - and this time it will be Israel's.
* A reader reminds me that David Warren, of all people, has a fairly hopeful take on the situation.
Which is true? Well, each has its own set of assumptions, and it's worth asking yourself what those are as you read them. Are there other views? Sure there are. If you've seen an analysis of the situation that's particularly good, please let us all know via the Comments section.
You've probably already seen David Warren's take...
I believe that the second rendition of the roadmap to hell is the right one.
The ceasefire will expire soon. There will be massive Israeli casualties because the Pals have had 3 months of unbrideled time to develop more weapons, more murderers and more encitement.
Then, Sharon will throw the gloves down and go after the terrorist infrastructure that Arafat's holocaust-denying puppet, Abu Mazen should have dismantled under this joke that is the roadmap.
Say bye bye to Arafat, say bye bye to Yassassin. Israel will eventually complete the construction of the wall and will finally realize that it cannot use Palestinian labor because it is like letting the fox into the henhouse. There may be an all out war and that is the only way to finally solve this problem. The Pals will be pushed back into Jordan which is where they came from in the first place, before the Arabs, leftwing Liberals and UN invented this whole farce of the Palestinian "people".
The first article says the villain is the UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN, UN.
The UN is irrelevant. The only question is Bush, Sharon, Arafat. And how to handle Arab self government.
Nice bit on what is wrong with the UN re: Israel.
Meaningless in the current context.
I'd bet on Chafets.
Anne is right on. King Hussein did not negotiate with the PLO in the events of Black September.