Georgia's Rose Revolution * The immediate cause of the protests leading to Shevardnadze's resignation was the disputed results of the November 2nd parliamentary elections. One of the opposition leaders, Mikhail Saakashvili, pledged to overthrow Shevardnadze on November 7th. Members of Georgia's opposition groups surrounded parliament and kept their pledge to stay until Shevardnadze stepped down. * Shevardnadze hinted that he would enforce order with troops. By November 23, St. George's Day in Georgia, Shevardnadze's tune had changed. As soldiers rallied to defend anti-Shevardnadze protesters, the President knew his time was up and agreed to step down. * Living with Caucasians was on scene and has photos of protesters the evening after parliament had been taken. Mary Neal also has television images of Saakashvili and his followers capturing parliament as Shevardnadze was giving a speech. * With presidential elections set for January 4, Saakashvili looks to be a lock as Georgia's new president. Saakashvili is a graduate of Columbia University Law School and worked for a law firm in the United States before returning to Georgia. His strong anti-corruption credentials and commitment to making Georgia part of the West is giving hope to Georgians. * Russia's foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, seemingly played a decisive role in convincing Shevardnadze to step down. Seemingly... * Georgia's revolution proves the United States can have its cake and eat it too in dealings with undemocratic states by dealing with leaders and fostering the growth of democratic alternatives. Everything that could be done correctly in Georgia was, and a range of programs supporting democratization laid the groundwork for the Rose Revolution. Saakashvili studied in the US under the Muskie exchange program, and other opposition leaders also benefited from US leadership development initiatives. * Love him or hate him, George Soros' Open Society Institute also nurtured civil society development in Georgia. * South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Ajaria are three Georgian regions that have ambitions that don't include allegiance to Tbilisi. The former two won civil wars against the Tbilisi government and are de facto independent states. Ajaria is autonomous and under the rule of the dictatorial Aslan Abashidze. As of December 11th, Abashidze still refuses to recognize Nino Burjanadze as interim President, and the three regions appear to be trying to coordinate actions to prepare for whatever may be in store for them. Efforts to increase the central government's authority and personal hostility between Saakashvili and Abashidze make Ajaria one of the biggest issues confronting Georgia's new leaders. * Georgia is also facing enormous economic problems, and the new leadership is seeking aid. In his campaign for the presidency, Saakashvili has not announced any new economic plans, but donors feel a page has turned and will likely offer generous aid to the new government. * For regular updates and on the scene reports from Georgia, visit Cinderella Bloggerfeller and Living with Caucasians. The Great Game: Politics & Regional Security * Georgia's revolution is a major setback for Russian ambitions. Georgia's recent drift towards Russia as part of the latter's goal of building a "liberal empire" was a cause for U.S. concern. The fall of Shevardnadze and the likelihood of much closer relations with Europe and the United States drew cool reactions from the Russian Duma. Though a transcript was unavailable, you can listen to (WMA) Zbigniew Brzezinski's analysis of Russian moves in Georgia. * Russia, of course, is not making things easier for Georgia. Russia is wary of what the new Georgia will mean for its interests--oil, energy infrastructure, and Chechnya--in the Caucasus. To intensify pressure on Georgia's leaders, Russia has intensified ties through direct talks and special treatment with Georgia's secessionist leaders. * Already upset over the presence of US troops in neighboring Georgia, Russia has warned Azerbaijan against accepting American troops. Russia's ambassador could barely contain his anger as he said that US troops have "nothing to protect int he Caspian." Forgetting that Russia maintains troops in Georgia and Armenia, he also said that the presence of foreign troops is a "partial seizure" of sovereignty. * A graduation ceremony was held in Republic Square in Tbilisi for the 111th Light Infantry Battalion participating in the USMC's Task Force Georgia Train and Equip Program. President Burjanadze was on hand to congratulate the troops and meet the trainers. The other three battalions that have completed training were present as well. * Affirming its commitment to the United States, Georgia has also announced that it will have 500 troops in Iraq by the summer of 2004. These troops will be added to the 70 already present. * Tajikistan has been reliably pro-Russia over the last decade. That seems to have been changing lately though. The US has made a number of overtures to boost cooperation between the two countries. Recent agreements include immunity from ICC prosecution for US troops in Tajikistan and US support for Tajikistan's entry into the World Trade Organization. * Saying that Uzbekistan needs money, not soldiers, Islam Karimov has said "no" to a permanent US troop presence in Uzbekistan. The funny thing is, the US never asked. It seems that Karimov wants something... * Central Asian leaders use the threat of Islamic extremism to justify large security forces and oppressive policies. Hizb ut-Tahrir's rise in popularity presents unique difficulties. On the one hand, the group is committed to nonviolence, but it is also very anti-American (PDF) and may be a fertile recruiting ground for the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and al-Qaeda. * It's fun to have a laugh at the expense of the French every now and then, but the French military is making important contributions in Central Asia. France and Tajikistan will be conducting joint exercises soon. Focus: Afghanistan * Afghanistan's constitutional convention has begun, but there are still many issues to be resolved with the document. * Kabul is under tight security amid fears for the safety of the Loya Jirga in town to debate the country's new constitution. The city provides many opportunities for attackers who wish to harm the 500 delegates. * In one of the first orders of business for the Loya Jirga, an advocate of parliamentary government failed his bid to chair the council. A Karzai ally has won instead, indicating that Karzai will get his wish for a strong presidency. * Pakistani troops, saying they are pursuing Taliban and al-Qaeda forces, have hunkered down in disputed territory along its Afghan border. Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of having crossed the Durand Line, the poorly mapped border drawn by the British in 1893. Though there's no way to be certain of who's right, locals have taken up arms against Pakistani troops and are reluctant to accept aid. * In the realm of stunningly positive news, two warlords based near Mazar-i-Sharif, the Uzbek Abdul Rashid Dostum and the Tajik Atta Mohammed, have turned over tanks and other heavy weapons to the Afghan Army despite recent clashes between the two. Donald Rumsfeld was on hand, and urged both warlords to pick up the pace. Human Rights * Uzbek President Islam Karimov rails against human rights groups operating in Uzbekistan after Human Rights Watch criticized Karimov's failure to meet benchmarks set by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and for the blocking of a conference on the death penalty. Asia Times Online says that Uzbekistan ignores quiet diplomacy, but if anything, Karimov's outburst demonstrates that the vocal, critical approach may in fact be counterproductive. * It's almost a given that any country that has a "Ministry of Fairness" (instead of a Justice Ministry) will have serious human rights problems. Therefore, it's no surprise that Turkmenistan has outlawed public associations. If there was anything that could make life even worse in Turkmenistan, this was probably it. * Uzbekistan's tendency to lock people up for being practicing Muslims has inspired protests in Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. These protests took place at the same time in a number of cities in each country, indicating both that they were likely planned by an organized group (Hizb ut-Tahrir, maybe?) and that Karimov's policies are radicalizing Muslims. * Why are these protests outside of Uzbekistan though? It's probably cross-border raids by Uzbek police to arrest Islamic activists like the one recently foiled in Kyrgyzstan. In this case, all but one of the Uzbek officers was captured by Kyrgyz citizens and border guards. These raids anger the Kyrgyz government, but it fears how Uzbekistan will react if it gets too upset. This has prompted fears that Kyrgyz police will quietly release their Uzbek counterparts. Economics * Who knew? Kazakhstan's economic growth in the past few years has only been second to Equitoreal Guinea, and, unlike E.G., only 20% of Kazakhstan's GNP comes from oil. The difference, and what sets Kazakhstan apart from much of the rest of the CIS is sound fiscal and monetary policy. * Tajikistan's plans for hydroelectric development are in limbo. Like Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan meets most of its power needs by trading water for energy from Uzbekistan, which is known to be unreliable in its shipments and more than willing to shut off the lights to get its way. A significant chunk of any new US aid for Tajikistan will likely go towards developing energy production capacity. * Kyrgyz businessmen are using family as collateral in China. When plans to turn Chinese goods into profits don't pan out, these family members are stranded in China. Neither government acknowledges the problem. Et Ceterastan * I read Solzhenitsyn's Cancer Ward, set primarily in Tashkent, when I was in Uzbekistan. I sometimes forget that the Soviets dumped much more than political prisoners on the deserts and steppes of Central Asia. The tailings from 20 years of uranium refinery, some from East Germany, poison Mayluu-Suu in Kyrgyzstan and threaten the water supply of the Ferghana Valley. Mayluu-Suu officially did not exist until recently, as it was considered vital to the defense of the Soviet Union. I lived in an Uzbek city, Navoi, that also only just made its first cartographic appearance. Here too, the leftovers of the Cold War poison the Kazak villagers who continue to have little idea why they are so ill. * Heidar Aliyev, the first post-independence president of Azerbaijan, died in Cleveland, where he was undergoing treatment for heart and kidney diseases, on December 12th. He leaves, at best, a mixed legacy. * News from Turkmenistan is extremely rare. Just over one year ago, there may or may not have been an assasination attempt targeting President Niyazov, shattering the image of Turkmenistan as a stable monolith. Niyazov, who calls himself Turmenbashi ("father of all Turkmen"), has squandered his country's enormous oil and gas wealth on statues, mosques, and a sea of black hair dye all dedicated to his cult of personality. Compare photos from Ashgabat with those from Pyongyang. Both are eerily empty of people and creepily full of "dear leader" paintings. * Eurasianet, recognizing the lack of attention paid to Turkmenistan, has a long list of commentaries to mark the anniversary of the last year's attempted coup. * Pepe Escobar of Asia Times Online, continues to prove that he can't write an apolitical travelogue. Nevertheless, Silk Road Roving is interesting to read. I particularly enjoy the entries on noble Bukhara and Samarkand, perhaps the greatest city I've ever visited.