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Andrew's Winds of War: 2004-01-12

| 10 Comments | 2 TrackBacks
Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com. TOP TOPICS * Up to half of the candidates for Iran's parliamentary elections have been barred from next month's elections, prompting a number of serving ministers to stage a sit-in in protest. President Mohammad Khatami says he will hold talks with the Guardian Council in hopes of reversing the decision. If Khatami fails, it could lead to his resignation; this showdown will have significant effects on the future direction of Iran's politics. (Hat tip: Instapundit). Other Topics Today Include: OIF II kicks off; Iraqis riot for jobs; America claims it has proof of Russian perfidy; and the Dutch may have found a few of Saddam's WMDs.
IRAQ BRIEFING * U.S. forces confirmed that the Black Hawk helicopter that went down near Fallujah this week was probably downed by ground fire. This attack may be indicative of the presence of foreign fighters supporting the Iraq resistance, although certainly Iraq possessed plenty of munitions prior to the invasion that they could use against Coalition forces. * Operation Iraqi Freedom II is beginning, removing the 123,000 American troops currently in Iraq and replacing them 110,000 soldiers and marines. The transition will provide numerous opportunities for attacks on U.S. forces. What happens over that period will be a significant indicator of the state of enemy forces in Iraq, as if they possibly can, they'll want to take advantage of this opportunity. Hat tip: The Agonist. * Iraqi impatience over the pace of the reconstruction boiled over this weekend, throwing stones at British troops and suffering six dead and eleven wounded. (Hat tip: The Agonist). * There are still those who claim Russia as an American ally. The United States claims it has evidence that Russia provided high-tech military equipment (use laexaminer/laexaminer) to Iraq in violation of UN sanctions. If true, this should provide a valuable bargaining chip in convincing Russia to forgive Iraq's debts. (Hat tip: Instapundit). * The WMD question remains up in the air after Dutch inspectors found mortar rounds that may contain mustard gas, a blister agent. The weapons likely date back to the Iran-Iraq war, although they would still represent a violation of the UN requirements. (Hat tip: Instapundit). * Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker." * The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated Dec. 25, 2003] * Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive! IRAN REPORTS * If Iran and the United States are to get along, the U.S. must accept Iran's right to nuclear technology, says Iran's President, Mohammad Khatami. This doesn't bode well for U.S.-Iranian relations in the near term. (Hat tip: Little Green Footballs). THE WIDER WAR * Michael Totten breaks it down an explains just why the war is so important: not because we might lose, but because of what might happen if our current tactics fail. * North Korea continues its bait and switch with its nuclear programs; having shown evidence of its ability to build nuclear weapons to a U.S. delegation visiting North Korea last week. The North Koreans assured them that they are willing to freeze their program again in exchange for U.S. concessions (surprise). Thus far, however, the Bush administration is holding fast to its demands that North Korea submit to inspections to verify the dismantling of their program. * The United States gave Uzbekistan a failing grade for its human rights practices, a first for a former Soviet republic. The move is only symbolic, but it may serve notice to nations nominally allied with the United States that support for the war will not translate to a blind eye on human rights violations. Or it could show that the U.S. is only talking a good game on human rights; either way, expect it to become an issue in the war. * Israel is discussing potential peace talks with Syria if Syria stops providing support to Hezbollah. But it will probably take some pointed hints from the United States before Syria is willing to take that step. * It appears the United Kingdom may have stopped a suicide bomber, although there are no details available regarding the target. (Hat tip: Instapundit). * We try to close on a lighter note if possible. In tribute to Joe's earlier post, Scott Ott explains how Rush Limbaugh secured the Eagles' victory Sunday. Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.

2 TrackBacks

Tracked: January 12, 2004 4:32 AM
War Update from Andrew Olmsted dot com
Excerpt: My apologies for not posting much lately, but I've spent the last three days downranges helping to train forces heading to OIF II. All my blogging today, such as it was, went to putting together today's Winds of War, so...
Tracked: February 23, 2004 4:37 PM
Winds of War: Feb 23/04 from Israpundit
Excerpt: Our Winds of War roundup of the global War on Terror is up at Winds of Change.NET. Check it out....

10 Comments

The Danes found the mortar shells, not the Dutch.

The chemical munitions were in violation only to the extent that the Iraqis appear to have lost track of them and to formally destroy them. They aren't in remotely usable condition, and I think it's more likely that they were buried after the Iran-Iraq war to get rid of them easily, than to cache them for future use. Although vicious, they could hardly qualify as weapons of mass destruction.

All the same, I think you and I might be of one mind as part of a shared desire to find and keep track of such nasty things regardless of when it was buried.

As for it being a weapon of mass destruction or not, I know I sure has heck wouldn't want one going off in a civilian area.

must be nice to be an iraqi and be able to riot without having your family murdered.

Since test results aren't even back definitively IDing these as blister agent, I think it's a bit too soon to speculate on their not being in serviceable condition. I have no idea how long that stuff keeps, although I'm sure this thread will soon contain info from those who do.

My position all along has been that if Hussein was being squirrelly about even a single truckload of CW munitions, it was worth a war for regime change. A single CW artillery shell turned into an IED in a shopping mall might kill hundreds, if not thousands, and would do so horribly -- not to mention causing much broader panic.

I guess then we need outside intervention to help us find the *lost CW weapons in Washington DC.*

There is a post in our collective weblog(* Free thoughts on Iran*),regarding the barring of Iranian parliament members from election, and the author has discussed his views of the situation. I think you may find it interesting.

"I think it's more likely that they were buried after the Iran-Iraq war to get rid of them easily, than to cache them for future use." I love this responce for the simple reason that it is the spring board for this point. If these weapons were buried without the intent to hide them but only to "get rid of them easily" and it has taken 8 plus months on the ground to find them. Just imagine the difficultly in finding one's that were hidden with a good plan and much attention to detail in the hiding. They had 12 years to come up with plans to make hidding and finding the weapons impossible.

Say what, What? Disposing of something in a convenient way doesn't mean it's necessarily easy to retrieve?! Non-Iraq example: some nasty people pour used motor oil down the storm sewers because it's quick and easy instead of taking it to an approved depot. That doesn't mean it's easy to fish the oil out of San Francisco Bay?!

A great discussion on Iraq by liberal hawks appears in Slate today and all week.

Of course it's nice to locate and destroy these dangerous chemicals, but their condition suggests there role as weapons was over long ago.

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