OxDem's global Democracy Briefings are the latest addition to the Winds of Change.NET regional briefings series. This inaugural briefing by Patrick Belton of OxBlog and OxDem reviews developments in Iran after the February 20th 'elections'. Patrick also serves as president of the Nathan Hale foreign policy society and think tank for young professionals, which has a website at www.foreignpolicysociety.org.
TOP TOPICS
- Analysts report that Ayatollah Khamenei has emerged from his nation's elections with more power but less authority. That the basis on which Khamenei's power rests is growing narrower, even as last week's elections removed the parliament and presidency as sources of opposition, is indicated by the disqualification of the candidacy of firebrand Behzad Nabavi, along with those of several heroes of the Iran-Iraq war - all of whom are now all considered beyond the pale of the Ayatollah's narrowed constituency. Notably, even Hizbullah founding member Ali Akbar Mohtashami refused to stand for election, declaring the electoral process undemocratic and corrupt.
- In protest to the disqualification of the 2,400 reformist candidates, abstention from voting was widespread. Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi abstained from voting in protest. Columnist Michael Ledeen reports an average turnout of twelve percent, with Tehran's slightly lower, and Isfahan's and Qom's (the latter the headquarters of the Shi'a religious establishment) closer to five percent. Writes Ledeen, "The only major city with a substantially higher turnout was Kerman, due to a local factor: A widely hated hardliner was running, and many people judged it more important to demonstrate their contempt for him personally by voting for others."
- After the election results, democracy advocates are considering mounting a massive campaign of passive civil disobedience. Many argue that Khatami's gradualist reform agenda had failed to produce change, and they would not have supported him in elections even without the Guardian Council's disqualification of reformist candidates.
- Speculation after the elections has rested on who Khameini will appoint to succeed President Khatami as president when his term ends later this year. The more pragmatic of the conservative factions are putting forward National Security Council secretary Hassan Rohani, while the more hardline faction is favoring Ali Larijani, the head of Iranian media and a leading figure in the suppression of reformist views in the media, known principally for his aired "confessions" of political prisoners and broadcasts into Iraq encouraging opposition to the American presence.
- During the two nights of Ashoura, pro-democracy protesters held demonstrations to use the religious holiday to criticize the lack of democracy in the Iranian government, according to the Iranian students. Prominent young film director Ardeshir Afshinzadeh died from wounds inflicted during torture following his participation in the Ashoura protests.
HOW BAD WAS IT?
- Conservatives loyal to Iran's Islamic leaders took 149 seats in the 290-seat parliament. Reformers and independents held only 65 seats. In February, the Guardian Council -- with its blanket political veto on candidates and laws which it judges to be contrary to the principles of the Islamic revolution -- ruled on barring 4,000 reformist parliamentary candidates, including the president's own brother and 80 members of Parliament. Half were then overturned, by a plea from Ayatollah Khamenei, who was speculated to be seeking legitimacy for the clerical institutions of government. Immediately before the election, two reform-leaning newspapers were shut down for running a letter of protest which questioned the clerical role in the Iranian government.
- The White House released a strongly worded, highly condemnatory response: "I am very disappointed in the recently disputed parliamentary elections in Iran. The disqualification of some 2,400 candidates by the unelected Guardian Council deprived many Iranians of the opportunity to freely choose their representatives. I join many in Iran and around the world in condemning the Iranian regime's efforts to stifle freedom of speech -- including the closing of two leading reformist newspapers -- in the run-up to the election. Such measures undermine the rule of law and are clear attempts to deny the Iranian people's desire to freely choose their leaders."
- At lower levels of the federal government, AEI Iran expert Reuel Marc Gerecht reports "a sense in certain quarters" that Rafsanjani and Khamenei "may play a very rough game domestically--Hezbollah thugs beat dissidents, "rogue" intelligence agents knife and run down liberal intellectuals, the judiciary jails any dangerous political opposition figure too prominent to off, and the Council of Guardians preemptively disqualifies troublemakers from office--but externally they are... responsible, rational actors who are principally motivated by geopolitics and economics (and, in the case of Rafsanjani, lucre). They are, in other words, real men, not distracted by all the leftist intellectual debates that consumed so many on the Khatami side of the political house."
- The Democratic foreign policy establishment is calling for a conciliatory, realist approach to Iran. Writes Sandy Berger in the International Herald Tribune, "Washington should publicly offer to normalize relations with Iran - including a commitment not to change its government by force - and help it integrate into the global economy, provided that Iran gives up, definitively and verifiably, its weapons of mass destruction programs and ties to terrorist organizations."
- Senator Kerry continues to call for normalization of ties with the Iranian regime. Reporters identify Kerry's fundraiser Hassan Nemaze, a longtime proponent of closer ties with Iran, as an influence of many of his campaign's statements.
- The Iranian students condemned Kerry, arguing that his current position would result in an abandonment of all U.S. support for the cause of democracy in Iran.
- Along with the crackdown on print media, one is underway on Iranian bloggers - see BBC (and see also Wired’s story on Iranian bloggers from last May).
- There has been widespread consensus that last week's election results mark the end of the gradualist reform movement associated with Khatami. Leading dissident Hashim Aghageri has declared that Iran's reform movement is finished. Similarly, commentator Reza Bayegan writes "At the beginning of Mohammad Khatami's presidency, even many of those Iranians who were sympathetic to the Islamic Revolution privately felt reform was the regime's last chance. They argued that either Khatami would succeed in transforming the religious state into a democracy, or his presidency would be remembered as the final nail in the coffin of the Islamic republic. Unsurprisingly, a term and a half into his presidential mandate, Khatami is looking increasingly like an undertaker. His public credibility has all but vanished and the political movement that became synonymous with his name lies in tatters."
- The student democracy protesters are of mixed feelings with regard to the Khatami party's downfall, having never accepted their reformist credentials in the first place. Psuedonymous Iranian student Koorosh Afshar writes: "Nearly four years ago, when we, the Iranian students, started the first phase of our new dissident movement, the so-called reformers (i.e., the pro-Khatami types) never staged "sit-ins" to support us. Vigilantes, revolutionary guards, and the Islamic republic's riot police were assailing us from every corner, as the reformers seemed to turn a blind eye to our struggle. Only when their own interests were on the line did the reformers stage sit-ins and resign.… You will have to excuse us Iranians for our lack of sympathy for these so-called reformers: Just ask yourself, as we ask ourselves, where they were while Iranian youths were being beaten, tortured, abducted, maimed, and deprived of their legitimate rights to continue their university studies. "
- Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, testifying before committees of the European Parliament, decried the Iranian government's disqualification of thousands of parliamentary candidates as being contrary to Iran's commitments under the Charter of Human Rights. She called for an EU report on Iran, but rejected financial assistance for reformists, saying "Don't give us financial help because we'll be accused of being spies! We need your spiritual aid but not your financial help."
Thanks for the info. I still think that an approach similar to Afghanistan is the way to go.
FH,
My guess is that it is already under way.
Simon
I wouldn't be surprised if SOFs were there already. If only scouting out the area. The push by the DoD to train Green Berets as intell agents was something of a giveaway of their future and possible current use.
Looking forward to news on elections in Saudi.
And Supreme Court. Watch out, Justice Kennedy is going to crack before the election. Word on the street is he on suicide watch for his vote on "Bush v. Gore."