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Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-05-21

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Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPIC

  • For the second time in less than a year, Georgia approached the brink of civil war only to step back. The results and players were nearly the same, but this time, it was the leader of Ajaria, a semi-independent region on the Black Sea, who fled.

Other Topics Include: More on Ajaria; Russo-Uzbek Love-in; US Trains Uzbek NCOs; Russian Border Guards to Leave Tajikistan; Afghanistan's Disarmament Plan Hits Snags; Turkmen Education System in Freefall; The Makings of a To'y; and, Disabled Athletes in Afghanistan

TURKESTAN

  • The US has been retraining Uzbek troops for some time now, focusing on creating a corps of confident, well-trained NCOs that will be able to implement orders and leave big-picture issues to senior officers. The result? A military force with much more NATO interoperability.
  • It is important to remember the smaller stories, such as the one above, when thinking of the implications of increasing warmth in Russia-Uzbekistan relations. The depth of Uzbek ties to the United States and the inertia those ties create suggest that there will be no significant shifts in international relations in Central Asia.
  • In other ICG-related news, the organization's Central Asia Project Director says that US policy towards Uzbekistan result from "erroneous assumptions" by American policy-makers.
  • Forum 18 says that Uzbekistan uses Sufism as propaganda in the United States (they make a convincing argument if you connect the dots) while still subjecting Uzbekistan's Sufis to official suspicion and control.
  • The head of Kyrgyzstan's anti-corruption unit was assassinated on May 6th, most likely by the types of criminals he had been investigating in recent months.
  • Kazak opposition parties hope to capitalize from the ruling of the "Kazakhgate" scandal to be handed down in US federal courts on June 2. An American businessman, James Giffen, is said to have paid massive bribes to unnamed officials in the Kazak government to secure oil contracts for Western oil companies.
  • China is making major investments in a new oil pipeline to bring Kazak oil to China's Western border. Eventually, the new pipelines will allow Kazakstan to export about 140 million barrels per year to China.

CAUCASUS

  • Make no bones about it, the peaceful resolution of the Ajaria conflict is a stunning success for democracy in the former Soviet Union, and a demonstration of the power of Russo-American partnership.
  • With Abashidze's fall from power, Georgia moves one step closer to controlling all of its territory. Still not under Tbilisi's control are Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which are independent but not recognized as sovereign states. Abkhazia appears to be the next target, and President Saakashvili will reveal Tbilisi's plans for Abkhazia on May 26.
  • Chechens who live in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge are worried about Russo-Georgian rapprochement. The ability of Chechen rebels to operate unmolested in Pankisi have been a sore point in relations between Russia and Georgia.

AFGHANISTAN

  • A faction of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e Islami has declared that it wants peace and a role in Hamid Karzai's government.
  • Afghanistan's disarmament plan is not going well. Some footsoldiers are turning in weapons, but warlords see little benefit in participating. Ismail Khan, the "Emir of Herat," is a case in point.
  • In fallout from the Abu Ghraib abuse scandal, the US has ordered a probe of prisoner abuse in Afghanistan. Arash points out that there are few prisoners in Afghanistan and that, in his opinion, if torturing Khalid Sheikh Mohammad can save the life of one Afghan donkey, it's a fair trade.
  • Bulgaria will add troops to its Afghanistan deployment amid NATO calls for more troops.
  • In the continuing battles along the Afghan-Pakistan border, Pakistan has announced that it is seeking a female terrorist leader training Pakistani women as suicide bombers as revenge for her husband's death (he was an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan member) at the hands of the Pakistani military.
  • By year's end, the Afghan Army will number between 16,000 and 23,000, making it the largest force in the country and increasing its chances of effectively standing up to militias.

FINALLY

  • From Dee, a Peace Corps Volunteer currently serving in Uzbekistan, we have: The Makings of a To'y (wedding), Parts One, Two, and Three.

The next installment of the Central Asia Summary will be in one month. In the meantime, regular updates on Central Asia and the Caucasus can be found at The Argus.

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