Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.
TOP TOPIC
- In its quest to reassert sovereignty over all of its territory, Georgia has been putting pressure on South Ossetia, a province that seeks to become part of Russia. In recent developments, Georgia alleges that Russia has transported weaponry into Ossetia to dissuade Georgia from aggression. Russia, of course, denies the charges and the OSCE backs them up.
Other Topics Include: More on South Ossetia; Russian and Chinese Great Game Moves; Kazakstan and Uzbekistan Dabbling in the Space Game; Kazakstan's Slick Opposition Party; Continuing Erratic Behavior in Turkmenistan; A US Free Trade Deal in Central Asia; Armenia Fights For Its Rights (to Nuclear Power); Violence Flares in Afghanistan; Vikings Returning to Central Asia; and much more.
GREAT GAME II
- Radio Free Europe looks at the US military presence in Central Asia, which includes the interesting tidbit that we should expect an increase in military ties between the US and Kazakstan.
- Uzbekistan and Russia have agreed to new military cooperation, inching ever closer to one another in the wake of this year's bombings in Tashkent & Bukhara.
- EurasiaNet is proclaiming Russia the winner in the competition for influence in Tajikistan. There has been a rapid and stunning improvement in relations after it was widely reported that Russian troops would leave over the next few years.
- Those Russian troops will be sticking around a while longer in Tajikistan, by the way.
- The United States signed a free trade agreement with each of the five formerly Soviet Central Asian states.
- In other South Ossetia news, Russia is protesting Georgia's use of US-trained troops.
- South Ossetia's leader is demanding reparations for damage caused during the earlier civil war, has cut off ties with Georgia, and claims that Georgian humanitarian aid is being sent to try to encourage Ossetians to overthrow their leaders.
- China's President is now in Uzbekistan for two days of security and trade talks followed by a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Afghanistan will attend as an observer and Mongolia will send a delegation.
TURKESTAN
- New contributor to The Argus, Laurence Jarvik, a Fulbright Scholar in Uzbekistan (and formerly with the Heritage Foundation), argues that Uzbekistan is at a crossroads and how the US responds is crucial.
- A very brave man in Uzbekistan organized an anti-Karimov rally and has had the guts to make his intentions known to authorities. IWPR is on the scene and reports (probably correctly) that this is a sure sign of rising discontent.
- Kazakstan has had it with just being the landlord for Baikonur and made it known that Kazakstan will make use of its cosmodrome. Plans include launching its own communications satellites and jointly developing new rockets with Russia. Not to be left out, Uzbekistan is getting into the space game as well.
- In an unprecendented move, Uzbek officials allowed US and Canadian forensic experts perform an autopsy on a man who died in prison. The family claims that police killed him, and the police say he hanged himself. As it turns out, the police were right. In related news, Uzbek police and human rights activists will jointly monitor prisons.
- In other news of the weird, Hizb ut-Tahrir members intervened to save Kyrgyz and Uzbek police from an angry mob.
- Kazakstan's die-hard opposition Democratic Choice of Kazakstan party was approved to operate. DCK even has a slick, blog-like website... in English.
- A recent investment upgrade and high oil prices are allowing Kazakstan to bargain hard with Western oil companies.
- The curious removal of Turkmenbashi portraits caused widespread speculation about the motives behind the move. It is most likely that it was done for international consumption because President Niyazov (Turkmenbashi) was getting wise to his status as a joke. Sober reflection caused some analysts to opine that we should no longer laugh at Turkmenistan. Not one to stay the course of the sane too long though, it was soon announced that lines from Turkmenbashi's spiritual guide, the Rukhnama, would be inscribed on the walls of a gigantic new mosque.
CAUCASUS
- Andy Young looks at the EU-Armenia dispute over aid and a nuclear reactor.
- Georgia has a new economics minister, and he's a Russian businessman (native of Georgia though...). Not a bad move for a country thinking about closer economic integration with Russia, itself an interesting goal for a country climbing into bed with NATO.
- Azerbaijan's behind-the-scenes power struggles are spinning out of President Ilham Aliyev's control and threatening his power. In what may be a sign that political strife is working its way into the open, an opposition leader was assassinated outside his house.
AFGHANISTAN
- Violence is on the rise in Afghanistan. Some of this month's victims include employees of Doctors Without Borders, one of whom was a blogger.
- In all of the recent fighting, Coalition troops have killed or captured nearly 200 militants.
- Following the footsteps of many impressive individuals, Hamid Karzai will receive this year's Philadelphia Liberty Medal.
- For a laundry list of reasons, Afghanistan's disarmament plan is failing.
- Hamid Karzai has requested more NATO troops, suggesting that they should come from countries other than the United States, which has 20,000 soldiers in Afghanistan now.
- Karzai recently swung through the US, and talked elections and security with a variety of news outlets.
FINALLY
- Vikings are returning to Turkmenistan!
- Amanda of Crescat Sententia, however, is not one of them. She recently left to serve in Peace Corps Kazakstan, doing my old job as a high school English teacher.
The South Ossetia issue is going to get pretty interesting (Ok, I'm a geek). It has long been a "bone in the throat" for Tbilisi, even as far as siding with Russia during its expansion through the region way back when (19th Cent?). To my way of thinking, Georgia and South Ossetia are like Serbia and Croatia in their dealings with each other. That's an oversimplified view, but there will probably be a lot more in the news about this struggle to get SO into Russian hands.
Today's (6/15) Eurasia Daily Monitor (not online as of 10:30 Eastern) says that the OSCE has confirmed the entry of Russian arms into South Ossetia. They also mention that the Russians have been wildly inconsistent in their statements on the moves.
Anyway, Georgia has more or less figured out "the formula" for reunification:
-Appeal to the populations of separatist regions by denouncing corrupt leaders and calling for democracy and human rights.
-Provocative military moves, designed to scare off the Russians and embolden dissidents.
I think they would themselves acknowledge that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be tougher nuts to crack, so it'll be interesting to see how things will develop. The real question is how much Russia cares.
Hey, Nathan, apparently Yuldashev was who was being bombed in Wana.
Not sure if this was covered elsewhere on WoC.
Thanks, I haven't been paying much attention to that lately.
I don't know whether to be thrilled that they're still going after him or mad that they did such a half-assed job in March on Yuldashev.
One thing that I find disturbing is that Yuldashev has been able to stay in that general area so easily. The news report mentions that he's in the Shakai Valley, not too far from Kaloosha, where he was holed up in March.
Yuldashev and the surviving IMU leadership (along with elements of IMET, the Uighur al-Qaeda affiliate) have basically set up shop in Waziristan with the likely complicity of the local MMA authorities and tribes while most of the Arab al-Qaeda fighters have headed into Azad Kashmir and the like and have regrouped with help from the Lashkar-e-Taiba. In addition to Yuldashev, there's also two Chechen leaders, Daniar and Quaran Ata. Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi was their contact with the larger al-Qaeda network and he works for Musaad Aruchi, who is yet another "nephew" of 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Aruchi in turn works for Amjad Farooqi, the head of al-Qaeda in Pakistan, who is probably hanging out with the Lashkar-e-Taiba or Dawood Ibrahim.
My torture take (at http://perfidy.org/comments.php?id=P1929_0_1_0):
Andrew Sullivan is leaning increasingly on the administration, particularly on the issue of torture. Being a right-wing writer, he describes being "inundated" with emails that are pro-torture. That is disturbing in and of itself, but I don't think we should come down too hard on his readers just yet. The question has not been correctly framed for them.
Most justifications for torture read something like this: If, by torturing an Al Qaeda member, we can gain information that will save hundreds or thousands of lives that might be lost in a terrorist attack, do we not have an obligation to do so?
This is not the correct question. The correct question is this:
Should we torture hundreds or thousands of people, not knowing with certainty if they are Al Qaeda, in order to gain information that might prevent hundreds or thousands of deaths in a terrorist attack?
The use of power is rarely confined to a single incident. Once torture is an deemed acceptable in certain circumstances, those circumstances have a way of enlarging and changing. Should torture only be used against known terrorists? Who makes that determination? And what is a "known terrorist" anyway? The government is vigorously pursuing prosecution of persons it deems to have supported terrorism. I have no problem with the legitimate prosecution of real supporters, but a recent case comes to mind.
In that case, a Saudi named Sami Omar Al-Hussayen, 34 years old, studying for his doctorate in Computer Science here in the US on a student visa, was prosecuted for "supporting terrorism", when he created a web site and discussion forum for Islam. On this forum, speech was engaged in and comments for and against terrorism flowed back and forth. My knowledge of this case is limited, but I do know that he was acquitted of the charge of supporting terrorism.
"There was a lack of hard evidence," said John Steger, a retired U.S. Forest Service employee who was the only juror to discuss the case publicly. "There was no clear-cut evidence that said he was a terrorist, so it was all on inference."
Steger called the First Amendment aspects of the case important to the verdict, citing Lodge's instruction that the Constitution protects speech even if it advocates the use of force or violation of the law unless imminent lawlessness occurs.
"What the First Amendment actually meant was more extensive than I thought," Steger said. "I was surprised that people could say whatever they wanted."
Justice Department officials in Washington, D.C., declined comment on the acquittal. But U.S. Attorney Tom Moss in Idaho said it would not deter future attempts to bring people supporting terrorists into court.
"We'll continue to go after people who support terrorist activities," Moss said. "You don't just need people who will strap on bombs and walk into crowds. You need people to support them. For terrorism to flourish, they have to have a communications network. . . . This was a case as prosecutors we're expected to pursue."
The government prosecuted him for supporting terrorism. Setting aside issues of free speech, should that same government also have a ability to torture him to gain more information? Is this man a terrorist or not? The government thought so; it prosecuted him for supporting terrorism.
Under the Bush torture doctrine, this man could have been tortured. This torture would have been performed away from the watchful eye of any court, or any check and balance.
A court found him not guilty. It is sobering to juxtapose the horror of torture, the willingness and desire of an administration to use it, the declarations and decisions of an administration that it is above the law and that it retains executive privilege to do what it deems necessary without review or consequence, and the decision of a jury of peers that a man is not a supporter of terrorism.
It seems that our court system serves a purpose after all. The founding fathers were correct to provide checks and balances between the branches of government.
Bad things happen to good people. You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs. Would you torture one terrorist? The lazy comfort of black and white is held before us, a temptation...
This slippery slope is the one that matters.
Sami Omar Al-Hussayen is still being prosecuted by the government on immigration charges intended to deport him, based on the theory that his student visa entitled him only to study while in the US; as a foreigner, he did not have the right to speak his mind, create a web site, or engage in discussion.
What right to free speech do I have?