Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report.
Round 2 of our auditions is currently in progress, and today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Larry Ice of Correct-Amundo!.
TOP TOPICS
- Suicide bombers strike U.S., Israeli, and government targets in Uzbekistan. Suspects were quickly arrested, though it is of note that the bombings took place the same week that suspects in bombings earlier this year were to be put on trial.
- Meanwhile, back home, the terror level is being jacked up for specific targets in specific cities. More on this in the Domestic Security Briefings section below, but people are witnessing unannounced drills taking place in our most populous city with increasing frequency as we lead up to the Republican Convention.
- On the intelligence front, the debate over the quality of our intelligence continues despite their apparent successes, and most certainly thanks to their spectacular failings. This last story has pretty large implications for our nation and one has to wonder, just how many tribal feuds are we being drawn into?
Other Topics Today Include: Iran resumes nuclear efforts; Israel's ABM tests; Iran's generation gap; The return of the July Surprise; Recent threat warnings; Palestinian civil war; More on Uzbekistan; Pakistani bombing; Afghanistan Report.
IRAN REPORTS
- Meanwhile, Iran resumes their Nuclear efforts, and freely admits it to the West, while still playing for time. Isn't this the same game that Saddam was playing in 2002?
- Meanwhile, one plausible explanation for the lack of hysteria in Washington over Iran's nuclear program could be the successful test of an Israeli ABM system, making Israel the first country in the world to be defended by an ABM system. It's even more interesting to look at the source of the funding and support for the effort.
- A new inside look at the youth of Iran shows that some are losing hope, tuning out, and turning on, much like an earlier generation in some western countries we could name. Given their values and lack of ardor for the state and official religion, can this generation take charge soon enough?
DOMESTIC SECURITY BRIEFINGS
- As promised, here is more on the specific terror threat, including a specific threat against the Financial Sector. Given the specificity of the threats, isn't it time to do some forensic accounting and see who's pulling money out of our markets, or positioning themselves to profit from an attack? Ultimately our most challenging enemies are the ones with guns and bombs, but the ones with the checkbooks who send them against us. What if all the Islamic Fascism is just a smokescreen for pure, unadulterated greed?
- Here is a statement from Tom Ridge, and an expanded transcript of his statement and Q&A announcing the raising of the threat level in Washington D.C. Good commentary on the latter, as some are still arguing that the alerts are a political ploy.
- Finally, another debate over at the Agonist, regarding the 9/11 Commission's recommendation of appointing a single Intelligence Czar. Good points both pro and con.
THE WIDER WAR
- Uzbekistan is increasingly the focus of both Eastern and Western governments, giving the Uzbek president a lot of leverage. He took the opportunity to blame the blasts on his most threatening foe, ignoring the claims of responsibility of other minor groups.
- Meanwhile, back in the cradle of Middle Eastern anger, PA infighting is beginning to look like the beginnings of a civil war.
- In one incident, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades invaded a meeting and fired shots, threatening PA groups attempting to discuss ways to address the rampant corruption in the territories.
- A car bomb explosion in Pakistan narrowly missed killing the PM-Designate, while killing his driver.
- And finally, this article notes that Taliban attacks in Afghanistan have increased since last year, but glosses over the point that with increases in the number of troops, NGO's, and security forces, from a statistical point of view, incidents of contact are bound to increase.
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It is not technically correct to say Israel is the first country in the world to be defended by an ABM system. The origin of the (now lapsed) ABM treaty itself dates back to an era of ABM development and deployment. In those days the ABM systems were mostly nuclear, but they were still fairly likely to have been pretty effective. Even the ABM treaty gave limited permission to deploy ABM systems, allowing (I believe) one city and one missile silo field to be defended. Indeed, the Soviets maintained their ABM system protecting Moscow for quite some time. And both the US and the USSR kept up ABM protection of their respective missile fields for a while. However, they eventually abandoned these measures since the systems of the time were expensive to maintain, as well as not terribly effective and destructive in their operation. The Sprint based ABM system, for example, would have been unusuable over a populated area and only just barely would have left the hardened silos functioning after it had done its work. Even so, they were deployed for a time.
Now, it would be accurate to say that Israel is the only nation completely covered by an ABM defense system.
Meanwhile, back in the cradle of Middle Eastern anger, PA infighting is beginning to look like the beginnings of a civil war.
It is Dahlan and the Arab League versus Arafat. Dahlan will probably win, then war against Israel will continue.
How long until the UN declares Israels missile defense illegal and demands it be taken down? Rationale: the debris from an intercepted Iranian strike would fall on the West Bank. Israel is morally required to absorb the blast.
Mark Buehner:
I half expect Israel will be accused of starting an arms race in the region, prompting Iran to develop the Shihab-3 and nuclear weapons.
Iran resumes their Nuclear efforts, and freely admits it to the West, while still playing for time. Isn't this the same game that Saddam was playing in 2002?
If this [about Saddam] were true, it would be bigger news than the all the other stories combined. So, of course, it isn't true.