Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Our in-depth Iraq Report is also up today.
Round 2 of our auditions is currently in progress. Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Joshua Foust of The Conjecturer - wish him well as he moves from Washington, DC to Boulder, CO.
TOP TOPICS
- Chalabi the Younger is in trouble. Salem Chalabi, nephew of the infamous Ahmad Chalabi, is now facing charges in connection with the murder of an Iraqi Senior Finance official. Chalabi, the man in charge of building the case against Saddam Hussein, is accused of threatening the man just before his death, and plans on returning to Iraq from London to fight the charges.
- Porter Goss has been nominated as the new Director of Central Intelligence. Based on his voting record in Congress (on both foreign policy and homeland security), it's reasonable to have some doubts about Goss, but the fact that he is reviled by the anti-war folks makes me wonder if my fear is justified. Expect more from both sides of the aisle (c.f. Ledeen and Digby) in the coming days.
- What's really happening in Najaf? Douglas Hanson has written an excellent analysis of the true state of affairs in that troubled Iraqi city, and what the future may hold for Mr. Al-Sadr. With luck, his Iraq-issued arrest warrant will be served, marking a major victory for the establishment of the rule of law.
Other Topics Today Include: Justified nukes?; EU monitoring US elections; Turkey & Iran; October surprise; l'affaire Plame; new Al-Qaeda leadership; Stasis in Sudan; Sharon's freeze; the Axis of Democracy; Piracy and terrorism in the Straits of Malacca; and recalling Chavez.
IRAN REPORTS
- The IAEA has linked Iran's nuclear program to Pakistan's. The way this is being played, Iran can claim full compliance with the monitoring agency, thus masking their enriched uranium program even further from prying European eyes. And, it means the US faces an increasingly uphill battle to bring Iran before the Security Council to face sanctions.
- Having finally noticed that Bush cleverly surrounded their country with US troops, many officials within Iran are calling for more engagement with neighboring countries. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, for example, traveled to Tehran recently, in an attempt to open up relations and allow trade.
- Don't hold your breath for a new, open Iran, however: the recent silliness over the new, half-billion dollar International Airport, partially operated by a Turkish/Austrian company, is a prime example of how Iran will never be able to interact with the rest of the world as long as the Ayatollahs run the place.
- On Wednesday, Trent Telenko posted his thoughts on Iran's October Surprise (which includes many more thoughts on the recent events within Iran's nuclear program). If you haven't read it, you should, because the implications of a nuclear Iran armed with ballistic missiles is nightmarish, and worth considering when deciding between two rather contrasting foreign policies this fall.
DOMESTIC SECURITY BRIEFINGS
- A bad omen, methinks? The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has been invited to monitor the US Presidential elections this November. Coupled with the recent, vague, announcement of Al-Qaeda threats against the election itself, this is shaping up to be quite a memorable election.
- L'affaire Plame is fizzling out as DC journalists face jail time for their silence over the identity of the leaker. The irony of reporters begging Congress to investigate what they already know is apparently lost on many, as Democrats still seem intent on somehow using the scandal to hurt Bush.
THE WIDER WAR
- Via The New York Times: a new generation of leaders is springing up within Al-Qaeda, filling the vacuum left by all the recent captures and executions. They are a strange mixture of long-standing, low-level operatives and relatively new recruits, all of whom seem to use the existing, centralized data nets with harder encryption. Now that we know about these methods, it will be interesting to see how well we can keep breaking into them, or how quickly these new "leaders" will adopt more a distrubuted, less detectable method of communication.
- The UN is still toothless, in case anyone forgot. Sudan is now saying it will "satisfy" the UN over the Darfur region, by promising to stop the genocide. What, are they afraid of "serious sanctions?" The horror! Oh, wait.
- Israeli PM Ariel Sharon is fighting the Housing Ministry's plan to build yet more houses in various West Bank settlements. Though played off as an attempt to comply with the American "road map" peace plan, it's likely Sharon is continuing his previous efforts to partially withdraw as a conciliatory move toward the Palestinians.
- The Strait of Malacca, one of the busiest shipping lanes on the planet, is a prime target for terrorists. Bedeviled with pirates for decades, the Singaporean, Malaysian, and Indonesian governments have begun coordinated patrols of the Strait. The thought of coordinated terror attacks against tankers and container ships, even on a small scale, could cause ruin for all three countries if shipping lanes switch to less endangered waters.
- Siddarth Mohandas, guest blogging at Drezner's blog, has written an interesting take on the growing collaboration between Turkey, Israel, and India. It's called the "Axis of Democracy," and could represent a powerful, unofficial alliance with which to ally. Of course, all three countries are on friendly terms with the US, but regional collaborations are almost always fruitful.
- Hugo Chavez's recall vote in Venezuela, scheduled for the 15th of this month, is proceeding apace. The Chavez government, however, is nervous, and is planning on blocking any news broadcasts of early election results.
- Also, Venezuelan bonds have risen to six-month highs, a reflection of the general warm/fuzzy feelings the recall has generated internationally.
- We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Because every major corporation is obviously Jew-owned, those zany Muslims have decided to create their own cottage industry of "Islamic" drinks and snacks. Jeff at Beautiful Atrocities explores The Explosive Taste of Mecca Cola. Heh.
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.
Joshua: I have no doubts about Porter Goss-- he totally won my heart when he stepped out of the closed door session of the 911 commission, and said the "T" word (Toricelli). :-)
Goss' assignment is to neutralize political threats to the Bush Administration emanating from the CIA (the Wilson/Plame affair is the leading example). The CIA's professional competence and ability to support the national interest is far less important than the CIA's political neutrality concerning whatever administration is in power.
I posted the following almost a year ago on Daniel Drezner's blog:
"... It is one thing for a President to have to deal with unresponsive national security bureacracies whose interests lie anywhere but their intended mission, and quite another for a President in wartime to face aid by those bureacracies and/or some of their factions to his domestic political opposition because of dislike for his national security policies.
It is almost traditional for a President to keep a discredited, politically vulnerable, leader of a national security bureacracy in place to ensure that leader's bureacracy does not pose a domestic political threat to the President. Clinton did that with Chief of Naval Operations Kelso after Tailhook. This President Bush has done so with FBI Director Freeh and CIA Director Tenet.
But Tenet has not adequately protected Bush against political sniping from within the CIA. That Bush is now tightening up his own appointees' leashes does not bode well for Tenet or the CIA.
This could be fun.
Posted by Tom Holsinger at October 8, 2003 04:17 PM"
http://danieldrezner.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi?entry_id=799
Tom H.: "Goss' assignment is to neutralize political threats to the Bush Administration emanating from the CIA (the Wilson/Plame affair is the leading example). The CIA's professional competence and ability to support the national interest is far less important than the CIA's political neutrality concerning whatever administration is in power."
I disagree. If you watched the CSPAN coverage of the 911 commission hearings, both Goss and Bob Kerrey referred to Toricelli upon leaving the clessified session. The closed door session had obviously been focusing on HUMINT. IMHO, Goss is the HUMINT guy that's going to fix our problems there-- that is his prime directive. Everything else is a secondary concern.
Israeli PM Ariel Sharon is fighting the Housing Ministry's plan to build yet more houses in various West Bank settlements. Though played off as an attempt to comply with the American "road map" peace plan, it's likely Sharon is continuing his previous efforts to partially withdraw as a conciliatory move toward the Palestinians.
Beg to differ. Specifically, most of the homes (600, IIRC) will be built in Ma'aleh Adumim, which even Barak and Clinton didn't plan to give to the Arabs. As far as the Israelis are concerned, building in Ma'aleh Adumim is like building in Tel Aviv.
The Bush administration, though, doesn't want any more Jews getting settled in there, which suggests he expects it to be given to the P.L.O. Sharon, of course, doesn't dare upset President Bush.
JOHN P. SUTER
P. O. Box 670144
Chugiak, AK 99567-0144
(907) 688-3103
suter@gci.net
September 12, 2004
Greetings
Airlines employees and their contractors have a law (www.faa.gov/avr/afs/whistleblower/) that protects them when they speak out on aviation safety/security issues. I would note that local government (city, county, state and municipality) airport maintenance employees who work at America’s 450 FAA towered airports do not have this protection. If they are caught speaking out on such issues they can be retaliated against for doing so. What can be done so that local government airport maintenance workers can have the same protection as airline employees, is to contact the congress to put in an amendment that would include them in this law. In doing so, this would protect them from retaliation. Without this protection local government airport maintenance employees will be afraid to report any unsecured doors, gates or other potential safety violations.
Some of the congressional representatives that you could contact that are in position to put in this amendment are transportation chairman Congressman
Don Young 202-225-5765, Fax 202-225-0425. House or Representatives
2111 Rayburn House Office Bldg., Washington, DC 20515-0201
Senator on the aviation committee Ted Stevens. 202-224-3004, Fax 202-224-2354. United States Senate 522 Hart Building, Washington, DC 20510-0201
Senator Lisa Murkowski who personally told me she could do it and will look into it could use some encouragement 202-224-6665, Fax 202-224-5301. United States Senate 322 Hart Building, Washington, DC 20510-0202
Thank you for your prompt and courteous attention.
Sincerely
John Suter