Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.
JK: And a big happy first blogiversary to Nathan Hamm!
TOP TOPIC
- Three simultaneous suicide bombings took place in Tashkent at the end of July, targeting the US and Israeli embassies as well as the Uzbek General Prosecutor's office. The bombings took place as the trial of 15 accused of involvement in the March bombings got underway.
- Sporadic fighting in South Ossetia has continued throughout much of the summer. Georgian and Ossetian troops clashed almost nightly throughout much of July and early August. To try to keep the situation under control, a ceasefire was negotiated last week. It was promptly violated.
Other Topics Include: Terrorist Defendants & Groups in Uzbekistan; State Department Cuts Aid to Uzbekistan; but, Department of Defense Boosts Aid to Uzbekistan; The Dear Leader Commands It; The Role of Clans in Central Asian Politics; More on South Ossetia; Georgia Vows to Protect Its Waters; Voter Registration Ends in Afghanistan; and, Meskhetian Turks Finally Find A Home.
TURKESTAN
- The defendants in the March case pled guilty and provided interesting details on the relationship of their previously unknown group (which appears to be called "Islamic Jihad Group of Uzbekistan" or Jamoat). They claim to be linked to both Al Qaeda and Hizb ut-Tahrir, that the orders for the attacks were made by Mullah Omar, and that they received training in Kazakstan. The smart money is on there being an element of truth to this otherwise sensational testimony.
- The Hizb ut-Tahrir allegation is especially interesting as the conventional wisdom is that they have nothing to do with terror. In the aftermath of embassy bombings, most media outlets breathlessly reported that President Karimov had accused them of complicity in the latest attacks. Instead, as is reported by the very sharp Burt Herman of the AP (unlike many journalists, he's based in Tashkent), the Uzbek government is highlighting the radicalizing role of Hizb ut-Tahrir as pushing people on towards involvement in terrorist organizations.
- The State Department decertified Uzbekistan over its human-rights record, leading a cut of $18 million in direct, non-military aid. Not to editorialize too much, but much of the media coverage and analysis of the decision and its meaning was utterly facile. Radio Free Europe has typically superb and well-informed commentary (continued here) on the decision and its meaning for the US-Uzbek relationship.
- Despite the cut (or because of?), the Department of Defense announced an additional $21 million in aid to Uzbekistan under an earlier agreement to control and decomission biological weapons left over from the Soviet Union. Part of the aid will be used to purchase new boats for Uzbekistan's (double-landlocked) navy.
- After the announcement that US aid to Uzbekistan would decrease, there was well-founded speculation that the Russo-Uzbek relationship would continue to blossom. I expect it to grow, but into something resembling Kazakstan's balancing act between the great powers.
- Turkmenistan's President, Saparmurat Niyazov, a.k.a. Turkmenbashi, has issued a few new decrees of late that further cement his claim to being Central Asia's Kim Jong-Il. During a recent TV appearance, Turkmenbashi revealed he is all-seeing while reading from his new spiritual works. He also banned public use of nas, a local (much worse) variant of chewing tobacco. Television makeup is no absolutely forbidden. Perhaps most amusing of all is his determination to build an ice palace in the hot, arid mountains outside of Ashgabat. In the spirit of Ceaucescu, he is also demolishing sections of the capital to refashion it to his liking.
- An oft-overlooked and quite misunderstood aspect of Central Asian politics is the role of clans. Alisher Mirzabaev offers a couple looks at the system--one on how clans relate to the War on Terror and another on the role of clans in state-building.
- Voice of America's Uzbek language service has ended after 33 years. Brian Ulrich rightly wonders what is going on in the heads of those who made the decision. Listenership was apparently at the heart of the decision despite the fact that listeners in turn became transmitters of the news.
- Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization held anti-insurgency exercises in Kyrgyzstan.
- IWPR worries that Uzbekistan's mahallas (essentially neighborhood committees) are being used to watch out for religious extremists. Alisher Mirzabaev sees them as essential to state-building in Uzbekistan.
CAUCASUS
- Tensions between Georgia and its two Russian-backed separatist regions continued to rise over the last month. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili threatened to fire on ships trying to enter Abkhazian ports without approval from Tbilisi. Much of the sea traffic is tourist boats from Russia and Georgia seems to be serious about enforcement.
- The Georgian government sees the conflict in each separatist region to be primarily with Russia and not the people of these provinces. President Saakashvili has declared that Russia is to blame for the South Ossetia crisis and Georgia's Parliament is calling for the removal of Russian peacekeepers from South Ossetia. In each region, Russia offers Russian passports and citizenship despite officially recognizing each province to be legally Georgian. However, in something of a departure, Georgia now wants direct negotiations with South Ossetia.
- Pavel Felgenhauer of the Moscow Times says that South Ossetia could spell big trouble for Russia.
- An additional small detachment of Georgian troops is preparing to deploy to Iraq.
- Donald Rumsfeld was recently in Azerbaijan talking up US-Azeri military cooperation which includes Azeri troops in Iraq and US support in Azerbaijan's naval security.
AFGHANISTAN
- Oxblog's Afghan correspondent checks in from Mazar-i-Sharif and the road to Kabul.
- Three American "bounty hunters" arrested for kidnapping and torturing Afghans in their Kabul home have received extra time to prepare for their trial.
- The Afghan National Army has been deployed to quell factional fighting in Herat.
- As registration drew to a close in most regions of the country, nearly 10 million have registered to vote in upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
- Lawyers for John Walker Lindh say that his case should be reconsidered now that another US citizen detained on the battlefield in Afghanistan will likely be released soon.
- US military officials say a fissure is developing between two factions in the Taliban and that it is "falling apart."
- jb brings up an interesting exercise in counterfactuals stemming from part of the 9/11 report dealing with the assassination of Ahmed Shah Massood.
- PakTribune reports on a young Afghan woman happy to be free of the burqa and allowed to compete in the Athens Olympics.
ENDING ON A HIGH NOTE
* A long-suffering group of people has finally found a home. Meskhetian Turks, originally from Georgia, deported to Uzbekistan, and now dispersed across the Soviet Union are coming to the United States as refugees. Those who lived in Uzbekistan and are now in Russia's Krasnodar region and unable to receive legal residency are being allowed to move to the United States after no other third party would take them. The program is being piloted in Philadelphia. A few families have been here for a few weeks, and I am happy to report (I'm volunteering with them) that they are doing well and extremely appreciative that the US has decided to provide them an opportunity to finally live in peace.








>> Meskhetian Turks, originally from Georgia, deported to Uzbekistan, and now dispersed across the Soviet Union are coming to the United States as refugees.
This is most excellent.