ELECTION RESULTS

Brazil

• The run-offs were a mixed bag for Lula's Worker's Party (PT). While they made strides in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, and Fortaleza, the capital of Ceará (and a candidate that the party neglected in the opening round) winning the mayor's office in both cities, the PT lost run-offs in Belém (capital of Pará at the mouth of the Amazon), Curitiba (capital of Paraná) Florianapolis (capital of Santa Catarina) and Porto Alegre (capital of Rio Grande do Sul where the PT held the mayor's office for sixteen years) the three states that comprise the officially designated region known as the South.

• Perhaps most painful was the defeat of Marta Suplicy, the incumbent mayor of São Paulo and a close ally of Lula. Adding insult to injury is the fact that the man who beat her is José Serra who Lula defeated in a runoff two years ago to win the presidency. Suplicy was very much a polarizing figure. A former sexologist, Suplicy had a difficult time easing the problems of the São Paulo megalopolis. Serra certainly has a tough road ahead of him.

• The repercussions for the PT may start this week. The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) will probably bolt from Lula's coalition and run their own candidate for president in 2006.

Venezuela

• I don't believe that if one is dissatisfied with your choices in an election one should stay home, but that is essentially what the Venezuelan opposition in regional elections last month. The net effect is that President Chávez's supporters now control 85% of the mayor's offices, 87% of the governor's offices and congress.

• While Miguel Octávio, the author of the Venezuelan blog, The Devil's Excrement observes that the abstentions were the same level as in the 2000/2001 elections the effect of boycotting an election seems to remind me of the old saying about urinating while wearing a blue serge suit: it leaves you with a warm feeling and nobody notices. The net effect is that Chávez has gained power and the opposition has been weakened. The business community is busy trying to make peace with Chávez and I doubt if he will be magnanimous in victory.

• Octávio does make one excellent point in the above post: "Well, now Chavez has oil at $50, 85% of cities, 87% of Governorships. What will be his excuse in 2006 for thing continuing to deteriorate? Acts of God?" Indeed!

Chile

• In a pleasantly non-controversial election Chile's ruling center-left Concertacion alliance won a plurality of the votes in municipal elections. Although the right-wing Alianza de Chile gained some ground (including retaining Santiago's City Hall), the ruling Concertacion still led the voting, with independents garnering 10% of the vote. Some observers believe that htis could be a preview of next year's presidential race. I still believe the smart money is on Michelle Bachelet, the former defense minister.

Uruguay

• Tabaré Vazquez, an oncologist and a socialist was elected president of Uruguay in the first round of votes winning a clear majority of the votes. His administration will be markedly different from his predecessor Jorge Batlle who looked to forge closer relations with Washington. I expect that Vazquez will look to strengthen ties with his neighbors in Brazil and Argentina.

• Washington should really have nothing to worry about as it appears that the leftward shift is more social democrat than pure socialist and his choice for economy and finance minister is Danilo Astori, who is regarded as moderate and very market-friendly.

COSTA RICA

• The last month has not been a good one for former Costa Rican presidents. First, as I mentioned here in last month's briefing, Miguel Angel Rodriguez resigned as Secretary General of the Organization of American States facing corruption allegations at home. Next came former President Rafael Ángel Calderón facing corruption charges. The trinity is complete with former President José María Figueres (himself the son of a former president) resigning as Executive Director of the World Economic Forum amidst allegations that he received nearly a million dollars in "consulting fees" from the same company that is alleged to have bribed Rodriguez. Paging Diogenes!

CUBA

• Fidel Castro has decided to end Cuba's use of the dollar as a defacto currency. The plans are to require a 10% charge for exchanging dollars (after a grace period scheduled to end yesterday) into Cuban pesos (aka Monopoly money) which are only circulated in Cuba.

• As would be expected, he casts the blame on the Bush administration's limitation of dollar remittances from US exiles to their family members. I think that there is something more to it than that. To begin with, Castro's government gets a sharp influx of dollars as people clamor to exchange before the commission kicks in. Secondly, this "Marxist" is pushing the use of the Euro instead of the dollar, and considering the weakness of the dollar recently, that might not be a bad idea - except for Cuba's citizens.

• There is a legitimate belief that the amount of the commission that families in Florida will have to pay in order to send remittances in dollars instead of Euros may impact the amount of the remittances. My friend, the journalist Marc Cooper thinks that this will lead to a black market in dollars. In any event, this won't be good for average Cubans. That should surprise no one.

• Also on Cuba, check out blogger and journalist, Eric Umansky's profile of a courageous woman, Claudia Marquez.

HAITI

• Brazil has played the major role in the UN peacekeeping forces in Haiti. Now it's expanding its involvement by seeking to involve the Caribbean Community (Caricom) nations in seeking to quell the recent violence in Haiti.

• Washington will not be happy with the fact that there has been some outreach to former President Aristide, not to involve him directly, but at least an acknowledgement that he does remain popular among a large segment of Haitian society. After the US peacekeepers left in June, the Brazilians have stepped up and done their best amidst difficult situations: hurricanes, floods and violence.

• The goal seems to be threefold: Involve Haiti's neighbors (i.e., Caricom) in plotting Haiti's future; help rebuild the economy; get both sides to compromise in an effort to end the violence and create an environment in which free and open elections can take place. That last goal may be the most difficult, but it is also probably the most important. Isn't mutual compromise for a larger good the very definition of democracy?

Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be back next month. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.