Robi & Nitin's Subcontinent Survey: 2004-11-26

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn

TOP TOPICS: THE KASHMIR POTBOILER

• Contending that solving Kashmir is easy, and can even be achieved in a day's sitting General Musharraf proposed a simple solution to the problem of Kashmir. This generally involves India ceding some (Muslim-majority) territory to Pakistan in return for peace. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took his time, but then ruled out any solution that would involve another Partition along religious lines. While India remains hopeful that globalisation and trade between India and Pakistan could help spur the peace process, Pakistan's Prime Minister reiterated that his country's position remains 'Kashmir before trade'.

• General Musharraf, who will keep his epaulettes after all, and is not accustomed to being rejected, promptly declared that he might need to review what he put on the table since the vibes from India were just not right. The good news is that India and Pakistan are firmly engaged in bilateral talks and confidence-building measures; the bad news is that any eventual solution of Kashmir involves one of the two countries having to swallow an unacceptable bitter pill.

• India began withdrawing troops from the state of Jammu & Kashmir, as part of its internal rapprochement process. The separatist elements remained churlish and refused to meet the visiting Indian Prime Minister, in spite of the state getting an unparalleled $5.3 billion economic development package.

• Rather strangely enough the Hizbullah has a seemingly reasonable solution but you can be assured that when they say Kashmiris they actually mean Jihadis. Despite the continued talks between the two countries the insurgency continues and the death toll mounts.

Other Sub-Headings Today Include: What Condoleezza Rice means to South Asia; India adopts Bush strategies in tackling terror; Pakistan makes some important decisions; Bangladesh and refugees; Shifting Alliances; Looking for good South Asian blogs?

HOW DO YOU LIKE YOUR RICE?

• This month we saw the replacement of Colin Powell by Condoleezza Rice as the new head of the Department of State. There are a range of opinions on what this will mean for India, Pakistan and Asia in general. While presidential appointees are there to implement the policies of the Administration, something many people don’t realize is they also have great influence with the administration and often help shape administration polices.

• Some in India contend that the appointment of Condoleezza Rice as head of the Department of State as a negative thing, increasing the likelihood that US will continue with its current Pakistan polices. The Acorn sees the difference as more of a matter of style.

• Others though have different opinions and point to Condoleezza's continued interest in India and Asia in general. Even before 9/11 Condoleezza urged the US administration, to look at India as an emerging power, and many remember her initiative in helping renew nuclear, space, and high technology transfers with India.

• NPR has a discussion on how Condoleezza's new role will effect world affairs. If you want to learn even more about Dr. Rice you might want to read Condi: The Condoleezza Rice Story which is reviewed here on the Strategy Page.

INDIA - TALK AND ACTION ON INSURGENCIES

• Like in Kashmir, India finds itself taking a two-track approach to counter-insurgency in the north-east. Taking a page out of the Bush administration's book, India hosted a visit by Senior General Than Shwe, leader of Myanmar's junta, and enlisted his support on India's own war on terror in the north-eastern states. A subsequent coordinated operation between Indian and Myanmarese security forces ended up leaving several terrorist groups gasping for breath. Simultaneously, India has begun to make serious political overtures to its disaffected citizens in its most remote states.

• India is becoming increasingly concerned as more of its neighboring states become increasingly unstable and threaten India itself.

• US intelligence is purporting the high possibility of new terrorist attacks in India. The US is taking these concerns seriously and even closed the consulate in Mumbai for a day.

• Although senior defense officials from India and Sri Lanka had drawn up a formal defense pact, it was not formally signed> during the Sri Lankan president's visit to New Delhi. The pact is opposed both by the rebel Tamil Tiger administration in northern Sri Lanka as well as by some Indian politicians and the Indian navy. This is indicative of the stalemate in Sri Lanka, where the de jure government has no de facto control of almost a third of its territory. The peace process between the government and the Tamil Tigers is similarly stalled, although the ceasefire is barely holding.

PAKISTAN - AN OFFICER AND AN OFFICE-BEARER

• The only thing left is for Musharraf to announce it, but apart from that, everything else is in place to ensure that General Musharraf will continue to remain both President and chief of army even after December 31st. The Islamists, who know they have been suckered have promised to put up a resistance (on the streets). But as the eloquent Vogon put it to Arthur Dent, "resistance is futile". The Commonwealth, on the other hand, has already heeded Vogon wisdom.

• Pakistan is still waging it war against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, especially in Waziristan. But a skeptical reader might note that its selective pursuit of the war on terror is limited to going after only those groups who threaten the Pakistani establishment while ignoring al Qaeda and Taliban remnants who remain committed to only killing Afghanis and westerners.

• A Q Khan, of nuclear Wal-Mart fame, will continue to receive medical treatment from the same team, thanks to a judgment from the Pakistani Supreme Court which turned down a plea seeking to replace his doctors. Dr Khan's longevity is no longer in Pakistan's interests, now that more questions are raised about his involvement in supplying nuclear material and warhead designs to Iran.

• The CIA recently released a report that mentioned Al Qaeda's attempts at acquiring WMD, and not surprisingly pointed to a Pakistani nuclear engineer, Bashir al-Din Mahmood, who was in contact with bin Laden.

• Pakistan as we have maintained, is at best a schizophrenic ally. Pakistan and Pakistani intelligence services have been behind numerous terrorist attacks against the US and its allies, but at the same time Pakistan has assisted the US and its allies too; Pakistani intelligence recently helped the UK disrupt a major 9/11 style attack on London.

• Pakistan's Supreme Court is making news. It recently ruled that serving food at weddings is an extravagance that is morally corrupt and un-Islamic.

• And then, suddenly it released former prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s husband Asif Zardari. The Rantburg points out Zardari spent eight years being held without proper trial while major Jihadis seem to get out of jail in a very short time. Some see US pressure behind this release and a number of other releases of political prisoners.

SHIFTING ALLIANCES

• Many people as well as pundits around the world are very excited about the growing relations between China and India; and as Nobel laureate Amatrya Sen points out that trade between the two countries is actually very old.

• China has and continues to be an aggressive power in the area not only economically but militarily as well. While India has fought one war with China it has had a number of bloody border clashes. Indeed much of India's nuclear deterrence is designed to counter a belligerent China.

• While China makes much of the burgeoning trade between the two, few seem to notice China's support of terrorism in Nepal as well as its backing of Pakistan's proxy war against India. China's continued efforts at nuclear proliferation have been instrumental in creating a nuclear armed Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran, surrounding India's neighbourhood with nuclear threats. Every major India city is in reach of Chinese missiles.

• China also has strong connections to Iran's nuclear weapons program. While A.Q. Khan has made it into the news cycle again about his and Pakistan's assistance to Iran, China is a much bigger contributor to the problem. Recent events have shown China seems to want a nuclear armed Iran which would make another threatening neighbor to India with strong ties to China. Fans of a Chinese Indian relationship may be well served to remember that China has no allies only useful tools.

• In many ways China has made India feel like Israel, surrounded on all sides my overtly or covertly hostile countries. As such it is not surprising to see that even with the new government Indian and Israeli relations are continuing to become closer.

• While ties between China and India continue to grow so do the ties between India and the United States, much to China's annoyance. India and the United States seem to be having something of a on going honeymoon when it comes to collaboration and sharing of defense related technologies and policies.

• The US recently doubled the number of H1-B visas but also increased the costs of visa fees at the same time. Rules governing H1-B and L-1 rules were made stricter. This is a great thing for both the US and India (Indian's being the largest recipients of H1-B's) in that more Indians will be available to work in the US. American companies will be less likely to exploit the system - bringing workers in for a short time and helping the US retain high-skilled workers and students.

• Unlike Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia's extreme version of Islam, Indian Islamic schools and universities tend to be moderate, like the vast majority of India's Muslim population. But Saudi Arabia's increasing funding of madrassas in India risks deepening the roots of the intolerant Wahhabi ideology. In spite of the surge of jihadi terrorism in many parts of the world, Indian Muslims, save those the valley of Kashmir, have largely stayed out of the suicide-bombing, gun-toting jihadi fraternity.

BANGLADESH - PUSHING IN A POINT

• Bangladesh insists that the Indian border security force is pushing-in Indian Muslims into Bangladesh. The Indians reject this, saying instead that they are (forcibly) repatriating illegal immigrants. Somewhere in between these two perspectives some real people are getting killed. Bangladesh, which hosts Muslim refugees from neighboring Myanmar, faces its own problems managing them.

AMONG OTHER THINGS

• Every week the Bharatiya Blog Mela (BBM) or the Indian Blog Carnival, reviews interesting posts from the Indian blogosphere. Recent editions of the BBM are here, here and here.

• KO lists new blogs from Pakistan, and PakPositive posts good news about Pakistan. Pakistan Facts, on the other hand, dedicates itself to exposing the 'secrets of a rogue nation'.