Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-12-08

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• The situation in Haiti continues to unravel. MINUSTAH, the UN peacekeeping force led by Brazil is seriously understaffed with a little more than half of the 8,000 peacekeeper force in place. According to this report, the police and peacekeepers have ceded large sections of the largest cities to gangs led by different political factions; some pro-Arisitide, some anti-Aristide. Although the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the peacekeepers mandate until June 1 of next year, it certainly appears that it will need to be extended even further.

Other Topics Include: Repercussions of the car-bomb murder of a Venezuelan prosecutor; the latest in Colombia; Allegations of violent homophobia in Jamaica; A new drug war and vigalantism looming in Mexico?; Is Lula's plan for Brazil's economy working?; Castro releases dissidents he should never have imprisoned to begin with.

HAITI

• The disorder is preventing aid from reaching the desperately needy more than two months after Hurricane Jeanne. The net effect of this is that you have the horrific image of nursing mothers eating clay in the belief that it will increase their milk output. One out of three deaths in Haiti is that of a child, death during childbirth is the second leading cause of death among women, HIV rates are rising and tuberculosis is common.

• Even Aristide opponents are expressing exasperation with the interim government of Gerard Latortue. Disarmament of the warring factions has been a miserable failure. Former President Aristide still remains very popular among a significant segment of society.

• So, what can be done? Don Bohning, a longtime Haiti watcher argues in the Miami Herald for turning Haiti into an international protectorate. Andrés Oppenheimer, in the same paper explains why that idea won't fly - at least with that name.

• I certainly don't claim to have all the answers, but two steps need to be taken, one immediately and one very soon. The immediate goal is to disarm all of the warring factions. This will take probably a larger force than originally anticipated, but it is essential for the arrival of aid. The second step is that both the anti-Aristide forces and the pro-Aristide forces need to be brought to the table and have it explained to them that for the good of their nation they must find a way to compromise. As Arturo Valenzuela of Georgetown University wrote in Salon earlier this year, "Democracies are forged when opponents finally realize that they need rules for mutual restraint in order to agree to disagree peacefully; that ultimately such rules are the best guarantee of genuine security and progress." Amen.

VENEZUELA

• The car-bomb assassination of prosecutor Danilo Anderson in a Caracas suburb last month has ratcheted up tensions even higher in Venezuela. Anderson was investigating the coup that briefly forced Hugo Chávez out of office in April of 2002.

• Two suspects in the assassination have been killed, one, Antonio Lopez, allegedly after killing a policeman. The government claims that a search of Lopez's residence disclosed arms and explosives, but have not elaborated on why Lopez was a suspect. The authorities claim that the second suspect had explosives in his car.

• Two former policemen who are brothers, Rolando and Otoniel Guevara, have been arrested. It turns out that the Guevara brothers were also accused of helping Peruvian spymaster and Fujimori strongman, Vladimiro Montesinos hide from authorities in Venezuela in 2001.

• If matters were not on an even sharper knife-edge, a Freedom of Information Act request has resulted in the release of documents that seem to indicate, despite claims to the contrary at the time, that the Bush administration was aware of the coup plotting in 2002 prior to the coup itself. Hugo Chávez, who in my mind is a caudillo wannabe, has thus been handed two gifts that will probably strenghten both him and his base: 1.) a martyred prosecutor and 2.) evidence that his Norteamericano enemies were less than forthcoming about their knowledge of events surrounding his brief ouster.

• Let me be clear here. The assassination of Danilo Anderson is an act of cowardice that should be condemned by all regardless of how one feels about Chávez. If someone in the opposition is responsible, then clearly the opposition should do itself a favor and weed itself of anyone advocating violence and coöperate with the authorities to solve this crime. The government, in turn should make sure that any other suspects are taken in alive. In any event, this is bad news for Venezuela, not merely for the obvious reasons, but it also seems destined to make a divided nation even more so.

COLOMBIA

• While the extradition of Gilberto Rodriguez Orejuela, the co-founder of the Cali cartel, to the United States there was some strange news from Colombia. Apparently, some narco-traffickers have decided that since the Uribe administration has tried to downplay the possibility of extradition of leaders of the right-wing terrorist group, the AUC to the United States where they have been indicted for drug trafficking, that the idea of buying franchises in the AUC as a hedge against extradition.

• This is truly a bizarre spectacle as Mark Kleiman noted. Narco-traffickers are joining an organization named as a terrorist group in September 2001 by the US Department of State. It leaves me stupified to consider a world in which one is safer from punishment if one is regarded not just as a drug trafficker, but also as a drug trafficker and murderer, organizer of massacres, etc.

• Meanwhile, in a gesture designed to help release some of the kidnap victims of the FARC, Uribe has pardoned 23 FARC members convicted of minor crimes. This is the sort of thing that ties my thoughts up in knots. I find it difficult to believe that the FARC will respond positively, but if it were one of my family members being held, I would welcome any effort to help matters. My sympathies lie with the victims in this conflict and nowhere else.

• Finally, President Uribe has cleared a major hurdle for his presidency by winning congressional approval to run for a second term. Shoud he win (and that certainly seems likely) he will be the first president to serve in consecutive terms since Simon Bolivar.

JAMAICA

• Human Rights Watch has a disturbing report on Jamaica titled "Hated to Death: Homophobia, Violence, and Jamaica’s HIV/AIDS Epidemic". In June of this year, Brian Williamson, Jamaica's leading gay rights activist was stabbed multiple times in his home. Shortly after his body was discovered, a crowd surrounded his home and started chanting "Boom bye bye", a phrase from a homophobic song by reggae singer Banton Buju about shooting gay men. Backing up the violence is impunity for those committing acts against gays and lesbians.

• What is additionally disturbing for Jamaica is that this is happening with HIV rates on the rise. Jamaica has the third highest rate of HIV infection in the Caribbean. Denial and unpunished violence against gays will only exacerbate the situation. I urge you to read the report.

MEXICO

• On November 23 three undercover Mexican police officers were set upon by a mob of some 700 angry citizens in San Juan Ixtayopan, a town some thirty miles from Mexico City. The mob suspected that the officers were kidnappers as they were videotaping suspected drug dealers near an elementary school. When the beatings were over, the mob burned alive the bodies of two of the police officers, Victor Mireles Barrerra, 59, and Cristobal Bonilla Colin, 26. The third officer, Edgar Moreno Nolasco was severely injured and remains hospitalized.

• What is truly horrific about this incident is the neglible and slow response of the police to the attacks; it took them three hours after the violence started to arrive. In fact, local media arrived quicker than the police and carried much of the attack on live television. The reporter even phoned a nearby precinct for help.

• President Fox has started to hold some officials to account for their negligence. Two high-ranking police officials have been fired and one can probably expect more to follow. Twenty-nine suspects have been arrested and that also appears to be just the beginning.

• Unfortunately, this is but the most gruesome and sensational example of recent vigilantism. While many of the other victims of this street "justice" have been alleged criminals, the fact that these latest victims were police is very disturbing.

• If the reputation of the police was not bad enough, the recent arrest of more than twelve police officers in Cancun amidst allegations of a revived drug ring there has further tarnished law enforcement in Mexico. Politicians are busy pointing fingers at their opponents and only the next elections may tell who will pay the price.

BRAZIL

• Brazil's economy grew at a rate of 6.5% in the third quarter following a second quarter which grew at a rate of 5.6%. After last year's recession, the economy has grown every quarter this year.

• Exports are fueling much of the growth, but the weakness of the dollar may dampen the exports. Lula is calling for a little weakness in the real (Brazil's currency) relative to the dollar. Interest rates still remain somewhat high, especially when compared to the US. Right now, however, there is a balancing act between maintaining a robust growing economy, but one that doesn't grow so fast as to spur inflation, a constant source of concern for Brazil. In any event, Lula has thus far surprised the doomsayers while disappointing some of his long-term supporters. Those who expected him to devote more effort and resources towards social needs won't be content to wait indefinitely.

CUBA

• As I mentioned here, I'm elated that Raúl Rivero and six of the other dissidents arrested in Cuba last year have been released from prison, but I find the idea of a quid pro quo for Castro having released them to be ridiculous. Is this fundamentally any different than hostage taking?

• Cuban-American blogger Val Prieto makes the important point that Rivero is being moved from a smaller prison to a larger prison. Castro has also given Rivero and some of the other dissidents an ultimatum. They have a year to think about what they plan to do in Cuba. If they want to write freely, then their choice is jail or exile. I suppose that makes sense for Castro as he can continue to blame Cuba's problems on everyone but himself.

Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be back next month. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.