Nathan's Central Asia "-Stans" Summary: 2004-12-14

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Central Asia & the Caucasus, courtesy of Nathan Hamm of The Argus. Nathan served in Peace Corps Uzbekistan from 2000-2001.

TOP TOPICS

• Uzbek authorities are in a tight spot over planned trade regulations. As mentioned last month, merchants in Kokand rioted when local authorities tried to implement the new rules, which would require bank accounts, cash registers, and much more. Diplomats warn that anger in the markets could spread. Both sides have good cases. On the one hand, merchants understand that many of them would lose their livelihood and have little to lose by taking to the streets. On the other hand, the new law may be designed to satisfy foreign lenders by eliminating the country's vast gray market.

• While the world's eyes were focused on the protests in Ukraine, Russia poured pressure on Georgia's separatist region of Abkhazia over its own election crisis. The opposition candidate, Sergei Bagapsh, won over 50% of the vote, allowing him to take office without a second round vote. Moscow demurred, and threatened harsh sanctions that would essentially shut down the Abkhaz economy unless a second round took place. Resolution was finally reached when Bagapsh agreed to a second round in which he will run as the head of a ticket with Raul Khajimba, the Russia-preferred candidate.

Other Topics Include: Responding to Russia in Eurasia; Learning From Uzbek Elections; Ukrainian Protests Electrify Regional Dissidents; A Survivor's Guide to Uzbek Prisons; Uzbek & Kyrgyz Elections on the Horizon; AIDS in Central Asia; A Year of Roses; Boosting Georgian Defense; Azerbaijan Moves West?; "Let Them Grow Poppies;" An Ancient Festival Returns to Afghanistan; The Dalai Lama Visits the Kalmyks; and, much more...

REGIONAL AFFAIRS

• Given Russia's recent assertiveness in the affairs of its neighbors--most recently in Ukraine and Abkhazia--the Bush administration is rethinking its Russia policy. Though Central Asia and the Caucasus are not specifically mentioned, it would be fair to assume that a retooled Russia policy would have as its cornerstone the protection and strengthening of the sovereignty of the former Soviet states.

• The protests following Ukraine's tainted presidential election have caused a stir among democracy activists throughout Eurasia. Activists from Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan all showed up in Kiev. This begs the question of democracy's chances in Central Asia. Conventional wisdom has Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as the prime candidates, though the recent protests in Uzbekistan indicate that it may be closer than we think.

TURKESTAN REGION

• Ruslan Sharipov, a former political prisoner now in the United States, offers a survivor's guide to Uzbekistan's penal system.

• Uzbekistan's election for the next Oliy Majlis, the country's parliament, is on December 26. Their ambassador to South Korea, wrote and opinion piece on his country's election that gives a taste of official Uzbek government opinion. Meanwhile, the public is fairly apathetic about all things parliamentary.

• Though more disturbing for Russia than Uzbekistan, it is worth noting that Russian Duma Deputies involved in monitoring the Uzbek election look forward to learning from Uzbekistan's election management.

• A less jingoistic glimpse of Uzbek official opinion, this time on the topic of Islam and Uzbekistan, comes in the form of an interview with Dr. Rafik Saifulin, an adviser to President Karimov.

• Barring Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan's opposition is the weakest in Central Asia. Their biggest problem may be that they are hopelessly divided.

• Though small and weak, these opposition groups have courage though. They recently staged protests in front of the United States and British embassies asking for support and calling for a boycott of the election.

• An Uzbek man has been arrested for distributing foreign radio broadcasts. This is especially odd because, if I recall correctly, Tashkent's enormous radio tower rebroadcasts these very same shortwave stations.

• Nezavisimaya Gazeta says that the OSCE has double standards when it comes to free and fair elections in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The latter gets heaps of criticism while the former gets off with not so much as a scolding.

• Working in Turkmenistan's government is risky business. The country's ambassador to Belgium defected a short time ago, but returned to Turkmenistan, where his family remained. There is speculation that threats were made against them to secure his return. The ambassador is now under house arrest as punishment for failing to stop a UN resolution condemning Turkmenistan's human rights record.

• Kazakh police have rounded up a Jamoat cell. Following the arrest, new details are emerging about its connections to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Al Qaida (and, in my minority opinion, Hizb ut-Tahrir).

• The headquarters of Kazakhstan's ruling Otan party in Almaty was hit by two small bombs. The government, which faces an opposition that is growing in stature despite efforts to weaken it, claims the attack comes from its political opponents. At least one local analyst thinks the bombs were planted by the government to justify a crackdown so it doesn't have to face protests like those in Kiev. I think I might be the only one who wonders if the attack was a hastily organized response to the wrap up of a Jamoat cell. The police chalks it all up to simple "hooliganism."

• riting on the wall looks at Kyrgyzstan's upcoming elections. A new law there bars from running for parliament anyone who has lived outside of the country during the last five years. The law appears to be specifically targeted at three popular ex-diplomats seeking office.

CAUCASUS REGION

• It has been one year since the Rose Revolution toppled Eduard Shevardnadze's government. EurasiaNet looks back at the successes and shortcomings of the Saakashvili government. If anything is certain, it is that the honeymoon is over.

• Increased defense capabilities is a high priority for Georgia in 2005. The United States plans to help out by launching a new training program to build on the successes of the Georgia Train and Equip Program.

• Meskhetian Turks, who in the last sixty years have been moved en masse from Georgia to Uzbekistan to Krasnodar in Russia, are adjusting well to life in America. The group in Lancaster, PA seems to be doing extremely well, though their family in Philadelphia (whom I work with) are having a few more difficulties.

• Though it fears the consequences with Russia, Azerbaijan is considering closer ties to the United States.

AFGHANISTAN

• Most claim that poppy cultivation is one of the largest problems in Afghanistan. Christopher Hitchens disagrees and argues that poppy cultivation can be an asset to Afghanistan's development.

• The threat of attack, thin mountain air, and a rough track were all just par for the course in Afghanistan's first marathon, held at Firebase Ripley. One Afghan who works at the base competed alongside the soldiers.

• Afghanistan is in talks to join the World Trade Organization.

• Mullah Omar's security chief has been captured .

• Newly-inaugurated President Karzai announced he will disarm militias before Afghanistan's parliamentary elections scheduled for late spring.

• After a three decades absence, Jowzjan's carpet festival has returned. Afghan carpet makers are trying to rebuild the market share they've lost after years of war.

MONGOLIA & THE REST

• Mongolia is using its good relations with North Korea to press for reforms.

• The Dalai Lama paid a visit to Kalmykia. Of course, a Dalai Lama visit is never just a Dalai Lama visit. Russia allowed him to visit the Kalmyks, despite the anger from China, to boost the popularity of the region's beleagured president. As for the Kalmyks themselves, visit their website to find out why I consider Europe's Buddhist Kingdom to be firmly Central Asian.

LIGHTER FARE

• Coming from my mouth, this might be strange, but Ted Rall, who occasionally does Central Asia cartoons makes me laugh and a good point to boot. There's a first time for everything, I suppose.

• Central Asia's very small blogging community is growing, especially amongst Peace Corps Volunteers in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Some of the best include Amanda of Crescat Sententia, Ryan Giordano, and Tim, who has a very important tip on staying out of trouble in Uralsk.

The next Central Asia & Caucasus briefing will appear in a month. In the meantime, keep up with regional affairs at The Argus. I apologize for the earlier wonkiness with the post.