Winds of War: Dec 20/04

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today.

Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.

Top Topics

• A secretive government scientific advisory panel called "The Jason Group" is telling the government that the current security classification system, devised in the 1940s, has grown too unwieldy and inflexible, and is hampering America's warfighting and intelligence needs. Both under-classification (by warfighters who fear not being able to share intelligence freely enough) and over-classification (by zealous bureaucrats) are a problem. It's a document-centered relic of the industrial age and does not fit into an information-age military-a fascinating alternative system is proposed that is better suited to the way intelligence is consumed today, based on the risk of compromise of any individual transaction rather than on the control of access to physical documents.

• Russia has broken the US monopoly on long-range conventional cruise missiles launched from strategic bombers, the closest comparison to them being called America's Tomahawk missile in the Russian press. Russia plans to use them to preemptively strike terrorist bases much more cheaply, a policy it has announced but not begun to implement yet.

• Osama bin Laden released his latest tape praising the attack in Jeddah, calls for the overthrow of the Saudi government and directs his followers to attack the oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

• Dan Darling profiles Said al-Adel, al Qaeda's commander of military operations.

• Canada's Senate (an appointed body) has issued a scathing report on Canada's lax border and interior security and cited the grave threat to $1.4 billion dollars a day in trade with the US if a terrorist attacker on the US arrived via Canada.

Other Topics Today Include: Russia builds Iran's nukes; More terror in the Middle East; Iran meddles; Hezbollah TV banned; Congo Capers; Death in Darfur; Pakistan cleaning house?; Taliban finished?; Thailand points fingers; arrests in Europe; Is recruitment a problem?; The secrets of Gitmo; Contracting Colombians; Gaddafi speaks.

IRAN REPORTS

• Iran continues to develop aspects of their nuclear program, which it promised to halt just this week. Meanwhile, Russia agrees to build seven more reactors in Iran. Thanks, guys.

• Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak states that "Terror and violence would be imposed throughout the Middle East" if the United States attacked Iran." More so than usual?

• David Ignatius says that Iran is about to hit the jackpot in Iraq. Iran is pumping money and agents into Iraq ahead of the elections and the favored electoral slate of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani, the one that seems most likely to win an electoral majority in the elections, is headed by the cleric who leads the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iranian-controlled group.

THE MIDDLE EAST

• Iraq's Defense Minister reacted strongly to the Shiite list's selection of pro-Iranian cleric at the top of the ticket. He also accused Syria and Iran of backing and directing terrorists in Iraq. From the same link, Iyad Allawi formally announced to join the elections backed by a 240-member slate, promising a unity government and to move beyond religious and ethnic fanaticism. The incoming transitional Iraqi National Assembly will have 275 members.

• The commander of U.S. and multinational forces in Iraq states that Iraqi insurgents are operating from Syrian territory and the Syrian government is not doing enough to stop them. He named the group of Ba'athist officials that are directing the insurgency and demanded that "that needs to stop".

• The Center for Security Policy looks at the dangers of making concessions to the Palestinians and the domestic and international forces arrayed against Israel.

• The recent case of Wafaa' Constantine, the Coptic woman who apparently left her husband for a Muslim work colleague and converted to Islam (who knows?), seems to have caused a lot of unresolved tensions between Copts and Muslims to come to the fore.

AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY

• Hezbollah's TV outlet has been designated as a terrorist entity, and will not be able to be transmitted via American communications satellite.

• A recent poll indicates almost half of American would be in favor of restricting the rights of American Muslims.

AFRICA

• Rwanda's President is threatening that his troops will cross back into the Congo in hot pursuit of Hutu cross-border attackers and that Africa's bloodiest war may be reignited. He blamed France indirectly for not disarming Hutu fighters and has previously accused France of actually training them. The Congo has replaced its army commander in the region.

• The humanitarian situation in Darfur is on the verge of utter collapse. The wanton killing of two Save The Children workers by a drunken rebel commander and Khartoum's resorting to the arrest of aid workers (including four Dutch nationals) are a factor. The statistics from a UN report bear out the deteriorating situation and even understate it: food delivery has declined from 70% of those needing it to 57%. A very serious outbreak of dysentery in Western Darfur and UN agencies have issued a warning that Sudan is in the middle of a massive outbreak of polio, 3 years after it was declared polio-free. The genocide is accelerating.

ASIA & AUSTRALIA

• Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf vows to crush foreign and domestic terrorists in the country, particularly in Baluchistan. That's some Christmas list.

• Recent high-profile arrests indicate that the Taliban may now be a spent force.

• Pakistani security chiefs are accusing the United States of providing bunk intelligence on al Qaeda whereabouts, calling US intelligence assistance "more harmful than helpful" and saying that less than 5% of US tips on terrorist concentrations panned out.

• Indonesian police discover bombs after heightening security measures in light of terror warnings. Australia said Wednesday that a major terrorist attack is imminent in Indonesia against Western interests.

• Pakistan has offered a bounty for former Gitmo prisoner Abdullah Mehsud for attacking federal troops and kidnapping two Chinese engineers.

• Interpol believes Mustafa Abu Yazid, al Qaeda's CFO and bin Laden advisor, is hiding out along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

• Thailand's Prime Minister is accusing Malaysia and Indonesia of being linked to some of the terrorists who are involved in violence in Thailand's south. He said that the terrorists are being trained in the northern jungles of a Malaysian state and that Indonesian religious students influence them.

EUROPE

• A French court sentences ten members of an Islamist cell to prison terms of up to ten years for their role in a bomb plot against a Christmas market in Strasbourg.

• As a part of the ongoing "Operation Nova", which in previous phases led to the breakup of several terrorist cells including one that was planning attacks on the National Court complex in Madrid, Spain has arrested two terrorists who were scouting out a nuclear plant and they are expected to be questioned by magistrates soon. One of the two men is said to be friends with Sarhan bin Abdilmajeed, one of the suicide attackers in the 3/11 attacks.

THE GLOBAL WAR

• Dean Esmay looks at the issue of recruitment in the United States Armed Forces. All services have met their recruiting goals except the Army National Guard.

• The CIA has been running a prison within a prison at Guantanamo Bay for extremely high value War on Terror detainees who might be interrogated for years, ones that CIA traditionally asked countries like Egypt and Jordan to keep incarcerated. The CIA has unique authorities thanks to a presidential directive to capture and hold certain classes of prisoners without publicly accounting for them, or the treatment they receive, in any way. The Red Cross has been allowed to visit all the detainees that CIA is keeping.

• A US security contracting company is recruiting Colombian combat veterans, active-duty and retired, for oil infrastructure security roles. An interviewed candidate points out that the company is being very careful and thoroughly vetting candidates for human rights violations.

We try to close on a lighter note if possible.

• Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi is upset that he hasn't been rewarded enough for giving up his nuclear program (keeping his job and head apparently weren't reward enough). He declares that he's interested in Italy's top job after 35 years of running Libya. Says he: "My program is to give the power to the Italian people... To let the Italian people be independent, with no representation, no go-betweens, no government... to have the power in the hands of the people and nobody else, because any form of representation is a fraud. These are just a few points of my agenda that I would propose if I were to run for office in Italy," he concludes. "I let the Italian people judge.""

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