Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today's Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul.
Top Topics
- Prof. Andrei Lankov of NKzone contributed a two-part series in the Asia Times on changes in North Korea that really is an absolute MUST READ.
- Some of the biggest names in Korean studies released a set of policy recommendations on the North Korean nuclear issue that any person following the crisis needs to read, regardless of whether they agree with the suggestions or not.
- Has the U.S. "sexed up" intelligence about North Korea's uranium program?
Also on tap: South Korea cracking down on "planned defections," U.S. neocons launch offensive on Seoul, Japan gets ticked off mightily at North Korea, the times might SOON be a'changin in Pyongyang, and much, much more!
North Korea
- Is a sudden change in North Korea right around the corner?
- Seoul is planning to crack down on "planned defections from the North." Repugnant as this may seem to some, there are legitimate issues that need to be addressed with defections. Moreover, many defectors often find life in South Korea isn't quite the dream they expected. And some defectors aren't what they seem to be. At the same time, however, high-ranking military officials might be abandoning ship.
- Some people do care about China's forced repatriation of North Korean defectors. But are they enough?
- Cell phones in North Korea? And PC cafes?
- The Japanese are pissed. And for good reason. Now Tokyo is brandishing sanctions and its own North Korean Human Rights Act. Of course, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun thinks this could all be just a big mix-up. Pyongyang says that Japanese sanctions=war, but Tokyo might be gearing up for that.
- The Japanese aren't the only ones getting kidnapped to North Korea.
- U.S. officials are talking about "regime transformation" -- as opposed to "regime change" -- in North Korea. AEI scholar Nick Eberstadt believes this is ridiculous Joseph has some good things to say about this debate.
- What do North Koreans think of their brothers from another planet? Might help explain the Kaesong Industrial Complex project.
- Sejong points to Korea scholar Bruce Cumings' last piece to demonstrate why history dictates that North Korea may have legitimate security concerns. Barry over at NKzone has a somewhat different take.
- Even the U.S. State Department looks like it has lost its patience with North Korea. For what it's worth, the North Koreans say they've lost patience, too.
- Famine in North Korea is the result of politics, not crappy luck.
South Korea
- Washington neocons have declared open season on South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, who seems intent on putting Seoul on the fast track to diplomatic isolation. I mean, doesn't this say it all? The new South Korean ambassador to Washington is going to be a very busy man.
- One South Korean lawmaker is ensuring that there is no such thing as a defense secret between the U.S. and South Korea. GI Korea tells him to cut the "weak country" crap. Especially when South Korea could neutralize the North Korean artillery threat in 6-7 minutes.
- The Party Pooper, well, poops on anti-Americanism in Korea.
- Some Incheon residents (albeit it very few of them) want to give Douglas MacArthur the Saddam treatment.
- The torture mongerers are still alive and kicking in South Korea, but they are coming under increasing fire.
- Does the ABC series Lost make Korean men look bad?
- Just a few of the things that are harmful to the youth of South Korea.
"Some of the biggest names in North Korean studies" are more than casually cosy with North Korea. You yourself have described chairman Selig Harrison as a North Korean apologist before, and not without reason.
That's a relevant point to include. Especially when "some of the biggest names" meant excluding almost all of those who argue that the NK regime cannot and will not give up its nuclear program - that doing so removes its only source of leverage for the aid that maintains the regime (See Notes of Dissent to find one - James F. Grant).
You'd think that might be a significant consideration when recommending policy toward the regime.
All this paper amounts to is the projection for a program IF one believes that North Korea is actually willing to abide by its agreements (and evidence points the other way), and also that they're willing to give up its game of nuclear blackmail for aid (and evidence points the other way).
It's a reprise of the 1991 agreement fiasco, with few changes, and no explanation of why that will work this time. As James F. Grant notes:
If there other side isn't genuinely willing to give on the key issue at stake, then talk of "resolution" is useless fantasy. That's why the first and most important step is to establish whether a genuine negotiation is possible.
Typically, the authors of this paper simply assumed this to be true as an a priori conclusion, despite the evidence pointing the other way.
JAPAN ABOUT TO TURN UP HEAT ON NORTH KOREA
JAPAN TIMES (by REIJI YOSHIDA) :
"Japan doesn't buy North's 'evidence' -- Pyongyang faces sanctions"
"The information and items North Korea provided pertaining to 10 missing Japanese are not credible, the government said Friday, warning Pyongyang faces economic sanctions if it continues its "insincere" attitude over the abductions. "Options could include economic sanctions, although this has not been decided as the first choice," Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told reporters. Friday's announcement is expected to raise diplomatic tension by another critical notch, as domestic pressure mounts for the government to slap sanctions on North Korea."
I think this story demonstrates that North Korea presents a real danger to the nations in the region (and through them the world) - and that (contrary to what Leftists would want you to think) this has NOTHING to do with American hegemony or Bush (or the neo-cons or the Likudniks), and everything to do with the fact that the Kim Jong Il regime is a savage, untrustworthy totalitarian regime.
It is time for regime change - and (in large measure) that will depend on China assuming its responsibilities as the biggest power in the region with close ties to North Korea.
AND NOW THIS UNDER-REPORTED STORY:
Only last week was it revealed that last month in Austria somebody made an attempt to assassinate Kim Jong Il's son - Kim Jong Nam. According to GOOGLE NEWS, this story was reported by only a handful of news outlet they cover - most of them South Korean outlets. Nothing in any of the stories has convinced me of who was behind the attempt - pro-Kim Jong Il or anti-Kim Jong Il forces. ONE THING IS FOR SURE: it can only indicate that the situation within North Korea is dire and desperate, and that the regime is teetering... STAY TUNED!
More here.
The assassination story is underreported because there is absolutely no confirmation from any reliable source that it actually took place. The Austrians have said that it did not.