Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from Iraq that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. This briefing is brought to you by Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended and Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com.
TOP TOPICS
- Two car bombs in Baghdad killed seven Iraqis and left another 39 wounded. One car bomb struck near Prime Minister Allawi's party headquarters while the other exploded after trying to run a police checkpoint. While this marks yet more violence facing Iraq as it attempts to hold elections, it's important to note that the attacks failed to actually strike either of their targets.
- Ethnic strife is one of the biggest threats reconstruction efforts in Iraq face, and Iraq'd notes a disturbing example of Arab-Kurd violence that could further degrade any hopes of returning security to Iraq.
- Don't miss the latest Carnival of the Liberated, this week's including Christmas greetings, a report from Mosul, winter crises, and more.
- Arthur Chrenkoff's latest good news from Iraq is up for your perusal.
Other Topics Today Include: continued fighting in Mosul; al-Zarqawi aide captured; Iraq's National Guard merges with the Iraqi army; increasing oil production; planning to fail in Iraq; new torture memo released; more on HMMWV armor.
REPORTS FROM THE FIELD
- In Mosul, US Troops struck insurgents who were attempting to overrun a US outpost. Twenty-five insurgents were killed when US ground forces and warplanes responded to the attack. A suicide bomber was successful in gaining access to a mess hall in Mosul, however, and 14 soldiers were killed in the attack for which Ansar al-Sunnah claimed responsibility. Spencer Ackerman notes that the attack may suggest the insurgents are getting cocky.
- US forces have reportedly captured a top aide to terror thug al-Zarqawi in Iraq. Fadil Hussain Ahmed al-Kurdi, brother of the al-Zarqawi aid captured last spring, was taken into custody during a raid in Baghdad.
- In an effort to boost recruitment and consolidate roles and responsibilities, the Iraqi National Guard will merge with the Iraqi Army. The reorganization is scheduled to take place on January 6, 2005.
- On December 30th, police officers from all areas of Iraq graduated from specialized training. The graduates - 938 specialized police officers, 1,190 public order police and 748 mechanized police officers - completed training at the Civil Intervention Force Academy in Numaniyah, about 250 miles South of Baghdad.
RECONSTRUCTION & THE ECONOMY
- The new Iraq has awarded its first oil contract to a Iraq-British-Turkish joint venture to develop the Kormale Dome field in the northern province of Irbil, which is believed to have capacity for 100,000 barrels of crude per day and associated natural gas output.
- Iraq's banking industry is evolving with the help of freedom, competition, foreign investers, and moving away from government institutionalized banking practices. Private banks will surge as the money for restructuring pours in.
IRAQI POLITICS
- Corruption and politics have always gone hand in hand, but Spencer Ackerman notes that it may be pointing to a lack of confidence in next month's elections not unlike rats abandoning a sinking ship.
- Mohammed of Iraq the Model offers some election analysis.
THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE
- Add Senator Joe Lieberman to the list of US legislators to have visited Iraq. Sen. Lieberman is said to have been heartened by the progress in Iraq and sees timely national elections as critical to success there.
ETCETERA
- Failure to plan equals planning to fail. It appears that we did just that with Iraq, never producing a plan for what to do once the shooting stopped, with repercussions that echo in the fighting that continues in Iraq today.
- Phillip Carter notes the appearance of a new Justice Department memo regarding the use of torture. It remains to be seen if the new memo will do any better to prevent the use of torture than previous incarnations.
- The key to success in Iraq ultimately comes down to convincing Iraqis to take responsibility for their own country. Logan probably isn't representative of the average Iraqi, but he's a great start in the right direction.
- Phillip Carter examines the Army's troubles with up-armoring HMMWVs. The conclusion should surprise no one.
- Another mass grave has been found in Suleimaniyah, bringing the total number to 259 found thus far. This one contains an estimated 60 bodies believed to be Kurds killed in 1991.
- The 3rd Brigade of the Army's 1st Cavalry Division got a show by punk perennials The Vandals during a modest Friday night party in the Green Zone. While soldiers bounced and bobbed their heads, The Vandals reeled off favorites like "Oi to the World" and "Anarchy Burger (Hold the Government)." The Vandals acknowledged they do not have the drawing power of other visitors, but they said they were pleased with the military crowds. "You rock out to the band you have, not the band you wish you had," guitarist Warren Fitzgerald said. Donald Rumsfeld couldn't have put it any better.
- The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!
- Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!
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"Failure to plan equals planning to fail. It appears that we did just that with Iraq, never producing a plan for what to do once the shooting stopped, with repercussions that echo in the fighting that continues in Iraq today."
Doubtlessly true, but the much bigger problem has been the lack of flexibility to catch up. Ultimately a lack of leadership from the top. We would be completely screwed if our military wasnt doing such a magnificent job.
Top 5 inexcusable, idiotic screwups:
-Taking Saddam's palaces as US HQs. Stupid doesnt begin to describe this. Meet the new boss...
-Putting infastructure reconstruction in the hands of the lowest bidder. Speaks for itself. Halliburton isnt an evil company, but its certainly not going to have the balls out motivation the situation required. Its been 2 years and we havent got the electricity much better than it started. That is criminal.
-Too few troops. Not to win the war, to keep the peace. When it became obvious we didnt have enough troops to control both the cities and the countryside (much less the borders), alarm bells should have wrung. They still should.
-Paul Bremer. Hire a beaurocrat, get a beaurocracy. Should have been a general.
-No national ID card. How much simpler can you get? We've got a list of every Iraqi citizen (from the food distribution program). We've got computer database experts. We've got billions of dollars. Give every Iraqi an ID and make them carry it. Solves all kinds of problems, helps elections immensely, and keeps foriegners on their toes. Easy.
>>No national ID card. How much simpler can you get? We've got a list of every Iraqi citizen (from the food distribution program). We've got computer database experts. We've got billions of dollars. Give every Iraqi an ID and make them carry it. Solves all kinds of problems, helps elections immensely, and keeps foriegners on their toes. Easy.
Yes, let's lay the groundwork for a worse tyranny later! That's a great idea!
"Your papers, please?"
"Yes, let's lay the groundwork for a worse tyranny later! That's a great idea!"
So in your estimation having a national ID is a bigger threat to Iraqi liberty than allowing Al Qaeda the run of the country? Lets burn that bridge when we come to it. The point is there is already a list of every Iraqi citizen in existance, issuing ID cards to them isnt going to alter that. How about we save the country before we go worrying about nebulous crisis little peices of plastic with pictures on them may or may not cause.
>>So in your estimation having a national ID is a bigger threat to Iraqi liberty than allowing Al Qaeda the run of the country?
Goodness yes. "Al Qaeda" is a relatively minor problem in Iraq. Absent the US occupation, it's unlikely that the locals would tolerate these hooligans for any length of time. If the USG was on better terms with the Iraqi population, local militias and clans would likely be disposing of the terrorists for us. Unfortunately the USG is too incompetent and unaccountable to take advantage of this.
>>The point is there is already a list of every Iraqi citizen in existance, issuing ID cards to them isnt going to alter that.
Those lists should probably be burned. When the USG leaves Iraq, those lists will be turned over to the new Iraqi puppet government, likely some variant of Saddam 2.0. Then the fun will really begin.
""Al Qaeda" is a relatively minor problem in Iraq. Absent the US occupation, it's unlikely that the locals would tolerate these hooligans for any length of time. "
AQ is probably too narrow admittedly, but without question the presence of foriegners in Iraq has been a major problem. They have been the ones doing the suicice bombing which have been amongst the most effective tactics. This insurgency is being directed and supplied from Syria, mainly by Sunni Iraqi's who fled. A national ID and database would make it far easier for our people (and the ING) to tell the wheat from the chaff, as well as get an idea of which Sunnis are doing what. If a guys name gets flagged a few times, thats a nice red arrow. As of now we are stumbling around hoping for the best.
Remember, this insurgency started very slowly. There was a critical window after the war when native Iraqis were terrified of the US. It was the foriegn suicide bombers that helped them overcome that fear. We should have been on top of that, and particularly the Sunnis crisscrossing the border.
"If the USG was on better terms with the Iraqi population, local militias and clans would likely be disposing of the terrorists for us. Unfortunately the USG is too incompetent and unaccountable to take advantage of this. "
I wont argue with that. See the rest of my list.
"Those lists should probably be burned. When the USG leaves Iraq, those lists will be turned over to the new Iraqi puppet government, likely some variant of Saddam 2.0. Then the fun will really begin"
Those lists are the only thing that are going to allow us any kind of a reasonable election. Saddam 2.0 wont need citizen lists to tyranize. Our first priority is to prevent that from happening in the first place. And if the US leaves how will the government be a puppet? Most of the criticism i've scene indicates a fear of an anti US government taking power. Regardless, we need to prioritize. Tyrants dont need lists when they have machine guns and the will to use them. Representitive govs do need lists, for simple things like voter rolls and to keep out suicide bombers.
You've forgotten to mention the new 200,000+ estimate of insurgent strength, the assassination of the governor of Baghdad, 700 campaign volunteers quitting in Mosul, the ridiculous plans to fly in every piece of necessary election hardware in the ten days before the election... the list goes on and fucking on.
Scrutiny Hooligans has this roundup.
thanks for all you do.