Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. I'm evariste and I blog at Discarded Lies. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are normally given by Colt of Eurabian Times. This week, I'll be pinch-hitting for him.
TOP TOPICS
- The U.S. is taking fewer prisoners in Afghanistan as court decisions and torture scandals give the military no incentive to hold prisoners, leading to killing more of them and releasing more of them. Law professor and veteran Henry Mark Holzer pointed this out months ago.
- In South Asia, a steady or slightly declining overall terrorism fatality rate masked underlying churn such as Pakistan's fatalities rising to 878 from 154 the previous year and Bangladesh's to 249 from 88. The Maoist insurgency in Nepal caused over three hundred more deaths this year than last, while India saw a decline in terrorist deaths of nearly 1300.
- Spain's newspaper La Razon says that Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists want to ram suicide boats into supertankers en route to Europe, apparently inspired by the attack on the French supertanker Limburg in 2002. The supertankers would be most vulnerable in the 100-mile wide stretch between Mauritania and the Canary Islands, and Mauritania's border is notoriously permeable. The intelligence came from the breakup of a Moroccan terrorist cell that had connections to Casablanca, Madrid, and Theo van Gogh.
- Algeria is saying that they have almost totally eradicated the 2nd largest terror group, the GIA, having dwindled their numbers to less than 30 and killed their leadership. The Al Qaeda-affiliated Salafist Group For Preaching And Combat is still vital, however, and caused the deaths of 13 soldiers and five civilians in an ambush.
Other Topics Today Include:
US reconnaisance in Iran;Iran making deals;IAEA to inspect Parchin in Iran, finds suspicious activity in Egypt;Islamic Army in Iraq threatens terrorist attacks on US soil;Shin Bet head on West Bank's future;Kuwaiti conspiracy against US;Eastie gang cultivates ties with Al Qaeda;8 page memo to Schoomaker on Army Reserve problems;Germany expels Hezbollah man;Binnie in the city;India military shrinks from US scrutiny;Hutu-Tutsi conflict in Burundi draws to a close and more...
IRAN
- Iran reported spotting US fighter jets carrying out reconnaisance missions over nuclear sites. I hope so.
- Iran and Uzbekistan are drawing closer together. Iran is also cosying up to the Arabs. Iran continues to make energy and trade deals at a furious pace, trying to give the entire planet a stake in the survival of the mullahcracy, I suppose.
- The IAEA will be inspecting Iran's massive Parchin military complex, after months of negotiations over the issue.
THE MIDDLE EAST
- Islamic Army in Iraq is threatening to attack the US homeland on their website. They must have been emboldened after they found our Radio Shack plane.
THE AMERICAS
- A hyperviolent El Salvadoran gang in Boston is developing ties with Al Qaeda, according to this Boston Herald report. The gang (MS-13) controls some alien smuggling routes from Mexico. 14 local and national law enforcement agencies have formed an intelligence task force to deal with the threat.
- At Germany's behest, Bin Laden's former bodyguard has been taken off the Treasury Department's terrorist blacklist. He is the first person to ever be removed from the Specially Designated Persons list.
- The FBI plans to build new case management system from scratch after its existing ($100 million plus) project was basically declared dead in the water.
- The GAO says that the computer targeting system that determines whether shipping containers receive extra scrutiny relies heavily on shipping manifests, which are created by untrusted persons. That's definitely weak security.
EUROPE
- The UK have set a date to try Abu Hamza: the Fourth of July. He is charged with inciting the murders of Jews and others.
- Six men are on trial in Paris for a plot to blow up the US embassy in Paris. One of them received his marching orders directly from Abu Zubaydah, a top Al Qaeda lieutenant in Afghanistan who is in US custody-and whose intransigence under interrogation prompted the CIA to ask the Justice Department for legal authority to employ methods of torture such as "waterboarding".
- A German tribunal confirmed the expulsion to Beirut of a Hezbollah "organizer" who was married to a German woman.
ASIA & AUSTRALASIA
- Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov sounded a conciliatory note, telling a German daily that Russia won't interfere with Georgia or the Ukraine as their ties with NATO and the EU stengthen. He also says Russia will not even theoretically consider joining the EU.
- Russian disappointment with the West is leading it to seek strategic partnership with China, according to the Financial Times.
AFRICA
- Burundi's long-running Hutu-Tutsi civil war is drawing to a close as an agreement was reached with 6 of the 7 rebel groups to lay down their arms and integrate their forces with Burundi's military.
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Let me preface this remark first.
I, speaking as an individual, strongly support this administration's fundamental shift in our strategic foreign policy within the Middle East (See other essays on HSPIG Forums Site).
I still have confidence in Sec Rumsfield. He's got a big plate which is very full. He's also been tasked with unifying the military commands and will encounter major foot dragging and political hits from special interests groups.
There is one thing that Sec Rumsfield could do immediately that would greatly increase the mission readiness of Air Guard units and probably other reserve units as well. Some guard wings have lost over 50% of their qualified pilots because of issues with the anthrax vaccine. In fighter wings, reserve and guard pilots are 80% or more of the qualified pilots.
This is the current controversy over the mandatory administration of the DOD's anthrax vaccine. I don't mean to beat a dead horse here but this is an extremely serious problem. The risk/consequences of suffering life long adverse reactions from taking this vaccine, greatly outweigh the risk of being exposed in a bioterror attack and resulting adverse effects. Anthrax can be successfully treated with antibiotics if initiated promptly. The current push to require all personnel to be vaccinated is not warranted. This policy is interfering/impeding mission readiness.
See this letter I recently wrote to CBS:
CHALLENGE TO THE MSM TO REPORT "VACCINE-A" STORY[...]
Read More
Ron Wright, Moderator
HSPIG Forums Site
www.hspig.org
Sorry I neglected to say what item I was responding to:
Ron Wright
Hey, Ron - we have a post up on the Vaccine-A issue.
It feels a bit like you're hijacking all the other threads in that direction, which probably does less to attract attention to the issue than to annoy the readers and cause them to start filtering you (and the issue out).
A.L.
"A U.S. commander in Afghanistan said his soldiers are taking as few prisoners as possible these days to convince Afghans of the U.S. military's good intentions."
Woo hoo! (genuinely)
I regard that as very good news, better still if it heralds a new general policy . It should have happened years ago, but better late than never.
(1) It is completely unacceptable and impractical to treat Al Qaeda combatants as though they were soldiers in good standing with the conventions of war. The codes that apply to honourable warriors must exclude our present enemies, or honour is meaningless. Jihadis given the protections that ought not apply to them will use our laws as weapons against us, and with every prospect of causing us unacceptable vexation. You cannot fight a counter-jihad where the jihadis are presumptively immune from all penalties except those that may be imposed by a court after proving beyond any reasonable doubt that the defendant is guilty of some specific crime. (You couldn't even fight a normal war that way.) It would take away a crucial part of the laws of war (the incentive for others to subscribe to them in good faith) to make them non-reciprocal, and merely another self-imposed weakness of the civilised nations. There is certainly no prospect of reciprocal good treatment. And there is no adequate reason to think that jihadis may be safely paroled, ever. (Nor do I think they should be if they could be. I think we have gotten to the point where it's reasonable to use the word "malecide", referring to the killing of evil, for what we are about.) So picking up a useless, impossible and endless burden is just not a real option (except if we're fighting to lose), and it never was.
Aaron at Belgravia Dispatch said here (link):
"Here's the slippery slope, and all for less than a thousand prisoners.
1. No torture allowed.
2. More humane conditions...maybe Geneva?
3. Legal representation, of course.
4. What crimes did they commit?
5. No proof of crime? Release them.
If we can stop at POINT 1, I'll be happy. But I suspect it will quickly move on to the others."
We can't afford to play games on that slope.
(2) Secretary of State Colin Powell said firmly (during the Afghanistan campaign) that you have to let people surrender if they want to.
(3) And treatment of jihadi captives not according to humane standards and the military codes of our civilised armies is also completely unacceptable. It is inherently wrong. All soldiers who participate directly or indirectly in coercive interrogations are to some extent lowered or degraded by this. That is not (and please God may it never be) what our soldiers sign up for. Also, "pressure" produces scandals that do immense damage to the war effort. Of course, I don't know how much useful information we're getting from these interrogations, but it seems to me that even if we'd caught bin Laden by now with information obtained by "pressure" it wouldn't be enough to compensate for Abu Ghraib. Also, it's infuriating to be on the wrong foot morally in a just war. "Alarm" in Afghanistan about things like numerous deaths in custody is not part of an invented liberal media pseudo-scandal, it is a legitimate response to scandalous things.
There is of course another slippery slope here, and we already know by experience that if you get cute with the basic morality of not coercing captives you will be corrupted and you will do unacceptable things.
We can't have (1), (2) and (3). Something had to give. Unfortunately, our restraints on coercive interrogation gave first, but I hope we'll be mostly on the right foot from now on.
There is no rule that combatants who act contrary to every decent restraint, this means jihadis, have to be allowed to surrender. Unless there's a terrific reason why we need a particular individual alive, it's better to kill them all. It's the only ethical (and practical) solution.
There is no slippery slope in killing inhuman killers. That is exactly what we should do, morally.
I am happy to apply the Golden Rule: do unto others as you would have them do unto you. If I ever become the sort of person who does what jihadis did at Beslan School #1, please shoot me stone cold dead without preliminaries or compunction. I wouldn't wish to live on as that sort of person. And in all fairness and charity, I don't want anyone else who has been corrupted by Islam into that state of moral horror to go on living either.
(I also think the only thing wrong with the Marine putting a couple of security rounds into a wounded jihadi in Falluja was that he was ever a "prisoner" in the first place.)
There is a practical problem that this makes it hard to obtain surrenders. Jihadis give up because they want to live. ("Of course I pitied the children, I swear to Allah. I have children myself. I didn't shoot. I swear to Allah," he said. "I don't want to die. I swear to Allah, I want to live." - one of the child-raping genocidal sadists at Beslan. I believe him - about his wanting to live.)
Fighting jihadis who would have surrendered if the option had been open to them will get our soldiers killed and maimed. In my view, these are necessary casualties. This will also give our enemies the increased reputation and prestige that goes with great courage, whether spurred by desperation or not. That's a darned shame. We have to pay that price to do the right thing morally and to fight most effectively. We just don't have the sort of system that would lest us continue to weaken the enemy by holding out the prosect of easy surrenders without doing ourselves unacceptable harm in the long run.
On La Razon news:
First of all, if terrorists want to disrupt the energy market in Europe, it is easier to attack the oil fields and pipelines in Algeria, Lybia or the Caucasus, as it happens every day in Iraq. There is even a critical gas pipeline that runs from central Algeria thru Marocco and below the Gibraltar Strait directly into Spain. So, why do you bother attacking a tanker in rough seas? The Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands is not a lake, could you imagine sailing miles and miles there, in a small boat trying to hit a moving target? The defence is also uncomplicated: move away from the coast the route the tankers cross.
For me, it is surprising the efforts that make certain officers of the Spanish administration to link the perpetrators of 3/11 to any plot conceivable, especially each time it comes to the light that there are more Spanish citizens involved in the March massacre, that changed the result of the national elections.
Secondly, what I believe was a true AlQaeda plot, disrupted by the Moroccoan Police years ago, consisted in attacking American warships in the Gibraltar Strait in the way USS Cole was hit. The Gibraltar Strait is only 8.5 nautical miles wide in some points, there is heavy traffic through and across, and fishermen and smugglers of inmigrants and hash add a lot of new targets to be checked. Furthermore, a sucesful attack against an American warship is far more profitable for the terrorists and would show that no one is safe.