LATIN AMERICA AND THE UNITED STATES

• One of the consistent criticisms of the Bush administration - and it's not just Bush opponents like me - is that it has shown very little interest in foreign affairs in the Americas. While the events of September 11 and the Iraq War have kept the administration occupied, little more than some groundwork for the Free Trade Association of the Americas (FTAA), the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) and a trade agreement with Chile have been accomplished.

• Meanwhile, left-leaning democratic governments have been elected in Argentina, Brazil, Panama and Uruguay, a significantly less than democratic leftist have consolidated and gained power in Venezuela and one of Bush's earliest friends, Vicente Fox seems to become weaker and weaker as time goes on. It certainly appears that Washington's influence is waning, except in Colombia where President Uribe, unquestionably Bush's greatest ally in the region has been racking up impressive approval numbers in the 70% range.

• So will the second term be any different? Andrés Oppenheimer sees some cause for optimism with the appointment of Robert Zoellick as Deputy Secretary of State and Condoleeza Rice more likely than Colin Powell to have the president's ear as Secretary of State. One of my other favorite commenters on Latin American issues, Marcela Sánchez is much less sanguine with the only optimistic note being that lowered expectations will bring about lowered disappointment. I think that she's right and believe that the Iraq War, Iran, the Middle East and North Korea will continue to preoccupy the White House to the exclusion of just about everything else.

MEXICO

• It has almost become an article of faith to express disappointment in Vicente Fox's presidency. I was very optimistic to see someone finally break the stranglehold of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI, arguably one of history's greatest oxymorons)on the Mexcian presidency. I was impressed with his choice of Jorge Castañeda, a left-leaning professor to be Foreign Minister. I was even more impressed with Castañeda's breaking the cycle of obsequiosness towards Fidel Castro.

• The wheels came off the bicycle rather quickly. 9/11 drew the Bush adminsitration's attention away from Mexico and Castañeda, tired of being frustrated, resigned in 2003. Lack of progress on promises to prosecute those involved with crimes in Mexico's Dirty War (despite this moving human interest story) have fueled the sense of disappointment, making Fox perhaps one of the lamest of lame ducks and possibly setting the stage for a resurgence of the PRI in the next elections, or Fox's nemesis, Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador moving into Mexico's Presidential Palace, Los Pinos. The wild card, by the way, is Castañeda who is running a presidential campaign that can only be described as quixotic. Next year's election will certainly be interesting.

CENTRAL AMERICA

• CAFTA may have helped the US and Central America grow closer, but a few clouds remain on the horizon with the agreement, not the least of which is possible opposition in the US from labor and problems with a new pharmaceutical law in Guatemala.

• The greatest dilemma may be justice, however. As I mentioned a couple of months ago, even Costa Rica is not immune from corruption. Guatemala is still struggling to implement a peace accord that is now 8 years old. Impunity continues to reign in the region and corruption is not limited to men, apparently.

THE ANDEAN REGION

Venezuela

• I think that we can continue to expect Hugo Chávez to consolidate his power. His allies now control the Congress, the municipalities, state offices and the courts, and face a feckless opposition. He'll probably continue to alienate his neighbors, engage in the worst acts of reckless populism and his greatest critics will still continue to buy his oil.

Colombia

• While President Uribe is trying to work disarmament deals with the AUC and offering carrots to the FARC that get swatted away, it would be good for him to think of the survivors (of which he is one) of the violence in Colombia and stand firm that any disarmament deals must involve some jail time and allocution resulting in an accounting of the crimes committed by all parties wanting to disarm in exchange for reduced sentences. Also, instead of relying on the threat of extradition to the US, it would be better to work on strengthening Colombia's own judicial system.

Ecuador

• There should be a law in every country in the Americas that if one ever participates in a coup, then they forfeit their right to ever hold elective office. That would relieve the world of Hugo Chávez and Lúcio Gutierrez, who is bent on stacking Ecuador's judiciary with his cronies, possibly with the help of ex-President Abdalá (El Loco) Bucaram.

Peru

• Dissatisfaction with President Alejandro Toledo continues to rise. Toledo, whose approval ratings hover around 9% recently faced a rebellion by renegade army reservists who called for Toledo's resignation. I am not a Toledo fan, but this is not progress. If you want to get someone out of office, you either impeach them, recall them or vote for their opponent.

SOUTHERN CONE

Chile

• Chile will have a presidential election this year and the clear leader now is former Defense Minister, Michelle Bachelet whose fascinating story I wrote about here. Will Latin America's most socially conservative country elect a woman president? It certainly looks that way. The latest poll shows that she has gained ground at the expense of all but one of her opponents.

Argentina

• I have a feeling that President Kirchner's final offer to Argentine bondholders will leave them nonplussed. Kirchner has one advantage here: Argentina's economy appears to be growing in spite of the mountain of debt and in spite of the conventional wisdom. Will it be sustained? Only time will tell, of course, but as Economy Minster, Roberto Lavagna commented: "Nobody can collect from a country that is not growing."

Uruguay

• Newly elected leftist President Tabaré Vazquez is under some pressure to investigate human rights abuses that took place during the country's military dictatorship. He has to do so under the framework of an amnesty law, that, unlike similar laws in Chile, Argentina and Brazil was voted in via a national plebiscite. While amnesties may prevent prosecution, I have always been of the mind that they do not prevent investigation, so at minimum perhaps an accounting of what took place can be made part of the public record.

Brazil

• Lula continues to remain hugely popular, despite some recent bad press. The economy continues to grow, fueled largely by exports that resulted in the nation's largest trade surplus ever followed a similar record in 2003. While he is defying the critics who feared his election would mean chaos and has won praise from the IMF, the challenge for him now is to live up to some of his campaign promises on behalf of Brazil's desperately poor.

THE CARIBBEAN

Haiti

• With every passing day, it becomes clear that Gerard Latortue has only made Haiti worse. He has succumbed to extortion by ex-soldiers and those claiming to be ex-soldiers, while doctors in the nation's largest public hospital are on strike and haven't been paid for three months. The idea of turning Haiti into a protectorate has been bandied about and as distasteful as the idea may be, I wish I had a better alternative. Don't expect elections there this year; just more suffering.

• JK: The title theme is Jimmy Buffett, but the subject is deadly serious... Apocalypso: Haiti's Chosen Poverty looks at the root causes of Haiti's ongoing failure. Haiti's poverty isn't a conspiracy from abroad, I argue - it's the product of choices that must change to avoid a future of more deforestation, more devastatation, and more poverty. Their choices, and ours too.

Dominican Republic

• While 81% of Dominicans think 2005 will be better, things should improve somewhat, despite the government's austerity plans and an outbreak of malaria in resort areas like Punta Cana, which could impact the tourism-heavy economy.

Cuba

• Just expect more of the same: bombast from El Jefe, continued repression, a shift from the dollar to the euro, and the best and brightest continue to get fed up and leave - when they aren't being deemed part of the national patrimony. When Fidel decides finally take a dirt nap, I hope they remember to put a stake in his heart.

Randinho's Latin America Briefing will be back next month. Meanwhile, regular updates concerning Latin American events can be found at Beautiful Horizons.