Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from Iraq that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. This briefing is brought to you by Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended and Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com.
TOP TOPICS
- On the heels of last week's destruction of a Bradley Fighting Vehicle that killed seven American soldiers, the weekend included five Iraqis killed in a skirmish south of Baghdad, an F16 mistakenly killing five Iraqis with an ill-placed bomb, and the death of an American soldier in an IED explosion.
- With the hearings for Alberto Gonzales ongoing, torture and Abu Ghraib are hot topics throughout the blogosphere. Wretchard is examining the question of what constitutes torture (start here and scroll down for more), while Glenn Reynolds offers two link-rich roundups. The discussion will only heat up with the beginning of the trial for alleged Abu Ghraib ringleader SPC Charles Graner.
- Retired General Gary Luck is going to Iraq on a fact-finding tour at the behest of Donald Rumsfeld. Phillip Carter notes this is good news, as it suggests the administration recognizes the problems it is facing in Iraq and is looking for ways to fix them.
Other Topics Today Include: Iraqi special forces go on the offensive; Kerry visits Iraq; Fallujah rebuilding begins; another political candidate murdered; Islam and democracy; UN report on oil-for-food due soon; saving Iraqi police dogs.
REPORTS FROM THE FIELD
- Elements of the US Marine Corps 31st MEU are working with Iraqi Specialized Special Forces to disrupt transient camps, supply routes and safe houses used by foreign fighters infiltrating into Iraq from Syrai, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Col. W. Lee Miller, 31st MEU commander says, "“The word is out that they’re going to be cold and miserable. Those guys who want to get their jihad on like it’s spring break won’t want to do that now."
- Democratic Senator John Kerry visited the troops in Iraq over the past week. His visit drew some mixed reviews.
RECONSTRUCTION & THE ECONOMY
- In the wake of the US retaking of Fallujah, residents are beginning to trickle back into the city. The US and Iraqi governments are now expending massive resources to rebuild the homes and infrastructure that were destroyed. There is also an effort to recompense residents for the destruction of their property.
IRAQI POLITICS
- A leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party, Omar Mahmoud Abdullah, was kidnapped and assassinated in Mosul. The Iraqi Islamic Party is one of the Sunni political organizations which recently declared they would not participate in the upcoming elections. The assassination was probably not politically motivated . It is suspected to have been carried out by Al Qaeda in Iraq, as was the recent assassination attempt of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a leading Shia cleric and leader of Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
- There is a Sadrist slate in the upcoming elections afterall. Fatah al-Sheik of the Independent National Leaders Party is a self-described Sadrist, although he states he is not representing Muqtada al-Sadr. The Independent National Leaders are fielding more than 200 candidates in the upcoming elections and al-Sheik is spending a great amount of time "pressing the flesh" in Sadr City.
- Ali asks if Islam is compatible with democracy, an extremely important question as we seek to test the question later this month in Iraq. His answer points to some of the problems we can expect to see as the fight for liberalization of the Middle East continues. (Hat tip: Iraq the Model.)
- Omar reports on a poll of Baghdad residents that has some encouraging signs for the upcoming elections, if it's accurate.
THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE
- The UN internal audit of the Iraqi oil-for-food program will fault the UN bureaucracy for failing to adequately supervise companies hired to oversee the program.
ETCETERA
- The good news is that Iraqis can speak out against the interim Iraqi government. The bad news is that the 'republic of fear' lives on thanks to the various insurgent movements.
- A court-martial convicted an Army SFC to reduction in rank and six months confinement for his role in the death of an Iraqi national he ordered thrown into the Tigris River.
- An Army Reserve MP Detachment CO, Captain Gabriella Cook, is appealing to anyone who can help feed 13 Iraqi police dogs, who are living on garbage and table scraps. Senator John Ensign (R-Nev), a veterinarian, directed a legislative aide to contact an Army liaison to investigate.
- The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!
- Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!
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Andrews Sullivan's excerpt from StratFor article:
150,000 dead and a billion cash. See any problems after George's meeting?
Andrew has had it in for Bush wrt Gay Marriage, that colors everything he says.
Guerillas won't infiltrate if the new Institutions are Shia and Kurd. That screws the Sunnis, but since they're only 20% oh well.
Yes the US by itself lacks the intelligence needed to fight the terrorists; who are confined to the Sunni triangle and exist from the former Baathist regime plus various Al Qaeda and Syrian/Iranian elements. It all depends on how much Sunni blood we are willing to countenance being spilled. A lot and the insurgency is over. Not much and it continues. The Shia and Kurds know who is doing the killing, the same folks under Saddam.
Casualties are the result of a garrison mentality, rather than actively seeking out and killing the enemy. For example, the people at Abu Graib were shelled every night by mortars, no one was willing to go out and kill the mortarmen because it would kill civilians. We are essentially trading our lives for Iraqis. We can change that trade, but it's not cost free.
Stratfor is right though that Iraq is a strain on the military capability; hand-off to the Shia/Kurds should begin as soon as possible.
We are at a tipping point politically. Unless some election miracle occurs, our current posture is about to become increasingly untenable. Somehow we have manage to break just about every rule for fighting a guerilla war. The enemy has a sanctuary and supply post in Syria, we have escalated the violence in response to enemy action to the detriment of civilians, we have failed to create an infastructure in a timely fashion. Thats all behind us.
We need to start thinking about a radical change in policy. Bringing in another 100,000 troops would have ended the insurgency a year ago, now it will be counterproductive. What we need to do is start handing cities over to native forces one at a time, and not the ING. Mosul should be given to the Kurds. The example will put fear into the Sunnis. US forces should be withdrawn from cities and used to seal the borders and control the countryside. We have failed to win, now we need to establish some sort of equalibrium with our friends on top and find a way to get out. Its possible that the roots of democracy will yet take hold, but unlikely, at least in a form we would prefer.
Our choice now is to keep a lid on the status quo thereby allowing a Sunni force buildup to a point where they take back the country (think Vietnam), or we back the Shiia and the Kurds again Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis. The added benefit of this is it would allow us to concentrate on destabalizing Syria, taking the fight to Demascus via proxy fighters and special forces (returning the favor actually).
Um, Mark? If we give Mosul to the Kurds, the Tutks will go absolutely ape.
We should probably avoid that.
Bleh. Tutks should be Turks.
Why do we care what the Turks think? Besides that, I dont believe it will be a big deal. The Kurds are neatly folded into the Iraqi central process for now. The Turks have nothing to say about the matter. If they dont like it, perhaps they should meditate on how preventing the 4th ID from invading from the north helped spur this insurgency.
The Turks have nothing to say about the matter. If they dont like it, perhaps they should meditate on how preventing the 4th ID from invading from the north helped spur this insurgency.
Amen.