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January 21, 2005New Energy Currents: 2005-01-21by John Atkinson at January 21, 2005 3:42 AM
Welcome to the first 'New Energy Currents' of what will undoubtedly be a big year (2005!) in new (and 'old') energy news. The pace of renewable energy projects all over the world is accelerating, as is the pace at which existing fossil fuel supplies are being developed and exploited. The policy front will be full of activity as well, with the Kyoto Protocol going into effect in February and the US Energy Bill returning to the legislative table in the near future. I don't know about you guys, but I'm pretty excited! To help you keep track of these developments as they happen, 'New Energy Currents' is a broad but by no means comprehensive compilation of noteworthy news in energy technology and policy from the past month. Brought to you by John Atkinson of chiasm.
As always, leave any tips or questions in the comments, or e-mail me at newenergy@windsofchange.net. Tracked: January 23, 2005 9:49 AM
Consider this an addendum from Why are all the good names gone...?
Excerpt: That the prices of renewable energy sources are likely to continue dropping while the prices of non-renewable sources are likely to continue rising - creating a scenario in which some of the more "loony" renewable energy ideas suddenly become much mo...
Comments
One nit regarding your pointer to my blog: Primary Energy estimates 40-100 GW of potential cogeneration capacity from industrial sources alone. They were only able to find 2.2 GW currently being used. My own estimate of residential and commercial potential from natural gas alone is a further 50 GW. This means we might be ignoring as much as 148 GW (average) of cogeneration capacity in the USA.
#2 from Penta at 7:46 am on Jan 21, 2005
For whatever reason, no matter if I use AOL, Mozilla, or IE, whenever I click on a site, all my browser iterations crash to desktop w/o any messages. That said... Photovoltaics on my clothes? So I'm wearing a powerplant? Um...If I remember correctly, Mom spent an awful lot of time teaching me not to try to plug myself into the electric socket. Wouldn't this...fundamentally violate that prime rule one is supposed to learn at age 2?
#3 from Joe_A at 11:07 am on Jan 21, 2005
The Windmills of Wrath I think a book about politics in Continental Europe for Americans should be written. I'll try to explain my point of view: First of all, In this country [Spain], where almost all oil, gas and coal must be imported, the wind rush has been under way for more than a decade. Privately owned "wind parks," encouraged by official subsidies... Well, this is the key point for a European: official subsidies. That would explain such a "rush". Secondly, in Spain the concessions of windparks always go (guess why) to the traditional EPCO's (Electrical Power Co.) or some associated company. New entrants don´t have much to do. Therefore windenergy is in fact a collusion between the established energy sector and the government. Third point, this stuff has much to do with propaganda: "my EPCO is greener than yours" for the businessman and "my country has more green megawats installed than yours" for the politician. Joined statesments with plenty of handshaking and complete photo albums are common. They represent the way big European business are done. Meanwhile the fishermen that barely get enough money to pay the bills, soon will see four hundred!! subsidized new obstacles in their everyday work. In fact that area will be not navigable. I agree with their complainings.
#4 from Ted at 6:54 pm on Jan 21, 2005
Just visited your site for the first time. Ted - I'm blushing! just goes to show what a policy background gets you... thanks for pointing out the sloppiness. John.
#6 from jap at 5:18 am on Jan 23, 2005
why do you bother with this same old BS. hydrogen vehicles, using perfectly good gas to produce ethanol, carbon trading, subsidized wind power? all waste and nonsense that has nothing to do with the environment or conserving hydrocarbon fuel. hydrogen vehicles cost 650,000 to 1 million dollars each, brilliant. meanwhile you completely ignore real issues concerning energy production. I dunno, jap, I just find a perverse pleasure in observing the 'BS' these idiots around the world are wasting their time working on. I appreciate your input tho!!!!
#8 from jpickens at 10:43 pm on Jan 23, 2005
John, before you dismissively deride Jap's comments, you should analyse the net energy benefits of the purported "energy producing" alternative energy sources. If these wind and solar farms were truly able to produce a net surfeit of energy, then the energy produced would be worth more than the installed cost of the facilities. The fact that they are not is proof that skepticism, at the very least, is warranted. The only people building these things are people who are heavily subsidized, or who lack conventional energy sources. Why is that? jpickens, Absolutely correct. And a point I was going to make: Except as a wate disposal means or some other byprododuct transformation bio-energy is not cost effective. The problems of collection of the material and removing the water and transport to the converter make it non-economic. Bio-diesel is a good way to get rid of waste cooking fats. As a primary source of fuel it is not cost effective. Of all the technologies available wind is closest to non-subsidised viability. It can displace natural gas which is at a premium thesee days so it is cost effective there. When production turbine reach the 3 to 5 MW range the electricity will be competitive with coal and nuclear. To make 100% wind possible (20% is considered feasible now) we will need cost effective energy storage. Now don't get me wrong. I favor research in this area. Lots of work needs to be done. Niche markets must be found to increase volumes and bring down production costs. The simple fact is that none of these technologies are robust enough or cost effective enough to replace the burners thtat produce most of our electricity. Or the fuels that power our cars. Fuel cells have 20 or 30 years more R&D ahead to be viable for vehicles. Supposedly the methanol fuel cell which was going to be ready in two years (for the last 5 years) may possibly hit the market as a recharger for laptops and cell phones. For situations where a wall socket or an auto cigarette lighter jack is not available. If they come out this year it will still be some time before thay are integrated into your cell phone or laptop. Two problems. Not enough peak power (so you will still need a battery) and heat generation. In other words fuel cells would be good for an emergency recharge (i.e. slow) not continuous power. Given the cost and energy densities currently available. == It reminds me of the "vapor ware" days of the early computers. Lots of hype. Very little real product. Look up my article "Logistics" on this site. Also "Smoke and Methanol". Any one can put out a press release. Real profit is much more difficult. Did I mention that fuel cell technology is 130 years old? There is a reason it is not widely deployed. There are better cheaper ways of generating portable electricity. At least for the forseeable future. J-Pick - sorry about the flipness, 'dismissive derision' - but there's a difference between being skeptical of the worth of our current clean energy technologies and questioning the worth of the entire enterprise. you & m-simon sre right to be skeptical of the current state of alternative energy technologies, of course. I make a similar point myself in this post earlier in the week, while referring to a new report by the Pew Center demonstrating that it would be just as cost effective to plant trees to reduce greenhouse emissions as it would be to use current alternative energy technologies. plainly, we aren't 'there' yet, and I try to keep the tone of these posts as balanced as possible and to avoid becoming another cheerleader for technologies that don't yet merit widespread commercial adoption. obviously the editorial tone of many of the articles I link to is too uncritical, but there's useful information as well. at this same time, I obviously don't agree with jap's perspective, that it is a waste of time to track the development of these technologies, that the work being done today is irrelevant. plainly, there's a great need for new energy technologies and/or new energy sources, and I think the race between all these approaches seeking to be a part of the solution will be one of the more interesting stories of the 21st century. certainly, not all of the technologies linked to here will have, or deserve to have, a big role in our energy future - but only time will tell. to this end, I try to be relatively agnostic and not to pick winners - note that I cover news on fossil fuels and nuclear power as well as 'alternatives'. I just try to highlight stories that seem to be the most interesting, revealing, or relevant - a link doesn't connote an endorsement. in short, the post is meant to be informational, not political.
#12 from jpickens at 2:35 am on Jan 24, 2005
"J-Pick - sorry about the flipness, 'dismissive derision' - but there's a difference between being skeptical of the worth of our current clean energy technologies and questioning the worth of the entire enterprise. " Unfortunately, many of these solar and wind projects are simply NOT net producers of energy. In fact, far from being "clean energy" technologies, they cause far greater pollution than if they never existed. These are the most nefarious polluters, because people are being duped into thinking they are clean. Before any such projects are approved, they should be required to perform a net energy balance evaluation, reviewed by competent third parties. Otherwise, their implementation should be limited to demonstration projects to hopefully develop true "clean energy" systems. JPickens - I'm certainly sympathetic to the idea that countries and states that are buying bigtime into solar, ethanol/biodiesel, and other currently net-negative energy technologies are making a mistake that consumers in are already beginning to regret. many of the technologies covered in this space every month are not ready for widespread commercial adoption, and only a few of those pretend to be. again, I'm just reporting what's going on, not what I think should be going on. however, there are reasons to continue developing, and even in some cases subsidizing, these kinds of technologies. in some cases - solar, for example - government action can help to 'grow' an industry that, with some technological breakthroughs, may become a net energy producer in the future. certainly, not always the most environmentally or economically optimal solution, but it's a popular one. we'll see how Europe does with it. more generally, we make our energy policy choices based on a variety of factors that include not only economics but environmental and security concerns. the costs of our oil dependence, particularly on the national security front, are potentially great enough that we may be willing to spend the extra energy and $$ to get our power/fuel from other sources. Futurepundit had an interesting post up on this subject vis a vis a hydrogen economy a couple months ago - http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002389.html, if you're interested. best
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