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Winds of War: Feb 03/05

| 8 Comments

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by me, Colt, of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

  • Freedom House has released an 89-page report on the extent of Saudi jihadist literature in the United States, a summary of which can be found here. The PDF can be found here.
  • In an interview with U.K. Channel 4, Shamil Basayev says: “We are planning more Beslan-type operations in the future because we are forced to do so.”
  • The U.S. is informing its allies that some of Libya's nuclear material - namely 8,000 spent fuel rods worth of weapons-grade plutonium - may have come from North Korea.
  • Be sure to read this interview with Omar Bakri Mohammed, a Britain-based al-Qaeda supporting imam.
  • Prepare yourselves for a farce. The world's first anti-terror summit will be held in Saudi Arabia.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran will never scrap their nukes; Russia boosts ties with Iran; Bush to give more cash to PA; Egypt preps for war with Israel; Israel to allow Egyptian armour and troops in eastern Sinai; jihadis use Down syndrome teen for bombing; Kuwait shoot-out; Saudi intel problems; Bush: Iran world's biggest terror source; U.S. works with Syria to stop cash to terrorists; Feith visits Pakistan; Al-Takfir wa al-Hijra arrives in Britain; cash raised in Britain still going to Hamas; Russian troops can fight terror anywhere; Beslan arrest; Chechen 'ceasefire'; French lessons for imams; Bonn Koran school under scrutiny for jihad indoctrination; A-Q still looking at Australia; Kashmir murders; Filipinos' hands tied by Oslo-esque agreement; al-Qaeda's plan for Africa; and much more.

IRAN

  • Iran wants to speed up their talks with the EU-3 to the point where the Iranians get their money. Europe says no. Javier Solana's spokeswoman says the process is "on the right track". For whom, exactly?

THE MIDDLE EAST

  • One of the few MKs worth listening to says Israel must develop tactical missiles, to match the threat posed by Syrian and Egyptian surface-to-surface missiles. He also said that Egyptis still preparing for war with Israel.
  • Egypt is hunting bad guys in the Sinai mountains, men who they say are responsible for the Red Sea resort bombings. The Egyptian army has killed one person.
  • Israel will allow Egypt to move armour, special forces and heavy weapons in eastern Sinai - in order to fight arms smugglers. Make sure to read the IMRA commentary.

IRAQ AND THE GULF

THE AMERICAS

  • An al-Qaeda-linked member of the Saudi air force, arrested last year by the FBI, had trained with the USAF.

EUROPE

  • Also in Germany, a Saudi-funded Koranic school is being looked at by German intelligence after discovering that a staff-member's son in law had volunteered for a suicide bombing in Iraq. That sounds a little less weak an excuse when you consider that teachers call for holy war against the Christian world, and the source of the money.

ASIA & AUSTRALASIA

  • Abu Bakar Bashir says the Bali bombings were not jihad. Yet he referred to the men who did it as jihadists. Huh.
  • In Kashmir, seven civilians were killed by terrorists on January 31st. In one incident, the brave men of LeT threw hand-grenades in to a house when the door was not answered, killing a mother and three children.
  • More ceasefire news. Because of the links between MILF, and JI and Abu Sayyaf, the Filipino military is finding it difficult to strike the latter. Why? Because the terms of the agreement says that the military must inform MILF when they are going to launch attacks on 'their' territory. So MILF tips of their terrorist buddies. So the answer to the above question is 'yes'.

AFRICA

  • This analysis sums up al-Qaeda's plans for Africa as follows: Terrorise, Divide, Seize

And finally...

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.

8 Comments

Iraqis have voted in the first genuine election in history

There's never been a genuine election anywhere before in all of history? Wow.

Smartarse :-) Error corrected.

Read the IMRA piece. Unconvinced. The Israelis themselves showed that when patrolling built-up areas, you need armor. And what's the most important ride in Iraq, built up areas or no? Armored vehicles. The intimidation factor is also helpful.

750 guys with some APCs and a few tanks aren't going to invade Israel. Concern aboput the Egyptian military is warranted for a number of reasons, but that isn't one of them.

The Israelis themselves showed that when patrolling built-up areas, you need armor. And what's the most important ride in Iraq, built up areas or no? Armored vehicles. The intimidation factor is also helpful.

Most Israeli patrols are conducted in jeeps and humvees. The armour is positioned at (some) checkpoints, and called in once things get nasty. There is enough precedence for the IDF being attacked and needing the armour to justify their use in the territories.

By contrast, the Camp David agreement allows for as many border police officers as Egypt wants, with jeeps and assault rifles. The Egyptians might have a case to be allowed armoured vehicles in the area if they had found that the border police they are deploying were not sufficient. But to my knowledge, the Egyptian border guards have not been in combat with smugglers at all - let alone combat so severe that they'd need M1A1s to back them up.

Which leaves the question: why?

There is simply no upside in going to war with Israel. Think of the three possibilities:

-You lose, badly. As the Arabs always have. Maybe this time the US doesnt shut them down before they reach Cairo and Demascus.

-You win and drive into Israel, only to see your capitals vaporized in a flash of light. You could probably see the mushroom cloud from the Synia.

-Stalemate. The US cuts off your financial and military aid immediatly and rushes same to Israel. Maybe Israel takes the opportunity to drive the Palestinians of the territories completely. Now you've got a new Palestinian population to worry about (again).

Look at it from the other perspective. Russian oil will almost certainly undercut Arab prices within the next few decades. Once that happens, the Arab world will go back in to decline. They've got one chance to put things 'in order', and that chance is now.

You win and drive into Israel, only to see your capitals vaporized in a flash of light. You could probably see the mushroom cloud from the Synia.

If the Arabs prepared an effective first-strike, Israel might not be able to deploy their nuclear weapons. And, yes, that is an enormous 'if'.

Colt-ah, but why else does Israel have three (and soon two more) Dolphin-class submarines?

I would be very surprised if the Israelis had successfully developed a second strike capability. Developing first strike capabilities without detection is hard enough...

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