DEMOCRACY & ELECTION WATCH

• The sudden fear of Central Asian leaders after the Orange Revolution is somewhat founded. The symbolism of orange banners and clothing seems to have been picked up by dissatisfied citizens.

• The quickest way to get up to speed on Kyrgyzstan's potentially momentous election is to see IWPR's weekly updates: January 14, January 21, January 28, February 4.

• Though Kyrgyzstan is the likeliest candidate for a democratic revolution in Central Asia, the odds are not good. Though the opposition was able to get protesters into the streets, its leader, Roza Otunbayeva, seems uninspiring, and, it should be mentioned, is not quite committed to full democracy right now.

• The Kyrgyz opposition is also facing police intimidation and laws restricting protests.

• All of the Central Asian governments are increasingly skittish about foreign NGOs that try to promote democracy. The drubbing that the Soros Foundation is taking in Tajikistan and Kazakhstan is a good example, as is Kyrgyz President Akayev's talk of the "technology of revolutions." Akayev's government's narrative implies that foreigners are trying to dismember Kyrgyzstan with the opposition as a tool. The president hints at this in this interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta and his government plays on fears of instability by claiming that protests in Kyrgyzstan would lead to civil war.

• Tajikistan's elections are getting less attention because they are more of a foregone conclusion. Though the outcome of Kyrgyzstan's are becoming similarly predetermined, Tajikistan making things tougher for the opposition is less of a surprise. The Islamic Rebirth Party, which fought the current government during the civil war, is fighting back to guarantee it gets to contest seats.

• Some strange rhetoric has been coming from Central Asian leaders regarding the proper number of houses for a legislature. Uzbekistan says its new upper house is a sign that it is becoming a more democratic country. Tajikistan added a second house five years ago. Kyrgyzstan is dropping its upper house this year.

• One of Kazakhstan's reactions to Ukraine's revolution was to shut down Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, one of the more popular opposition parties in the country. The factors that led to the shutdown include charges of political extremism and that members participated in the Ukraine protests. DCK's English website is available here and you can find photos of a recent protest here (note the orange...).

TURKESTAN REGION

• Ferghana.ru conducted interviews with two Uzbek opposition figures recently: Nigora Khidoyatova of the Free Peasants Party and Marat Zakhidov of the Party of Agrarians and Businessmen. Both of the interviews give one a good sense for the weakness of the Uzbek opposition.

• Additionally, Ferghana.ru translated an interview with President Islam Karimov. Karimov rarely gives interviews, and this one is a rare glimpse at what the man behind the Uzbek government thinks about the issues he and his country faces. My appraisal is that he has a firm, realistic, but problematic view of his situation. He understands that his country is facing pressure for democratization and he seems determined to head it off.

• Some Uzbeks living along the country's border with Kazakhstan in the Tashkent region recently had their homes demolished to clear a 50 meter zone along the border. Incredibly and unexpectedly, they took to the streets in Tashkent, orange banners aloft...

• A serial killer appears to be on the loose in Tashkent. Mum's the word in the press though, leading to all kinds of speculation such as that a vampire is to blame. The media was quiet about these murders when I was in Uzbekistan (and accused of possible involvement by the fine folks of Project HOPE). The motivation for covering up this news might seem odd, but the narrative in the Uzbek media is that everything is calm and stable in Uzbekistan while everything is chaotic and dangerous elsewhere.

• The rumor that Islam Karimov is ill (or dead and replaced with a look-alike) are nothing new, but little is often said about who or what would follow his death. EurasiaNet offers an invaluable look at the power struggle for control over succession between the chairman of the National Security Service and the Interior minister, both of whom have significant economic influence and control over independent military units.

• Root beer and peanut butter are two things rarely loved outside of the United States. It warms my heart to hear that Uzbekistan's first peanut butter factory just opened. The factory actually will produce many peanut products, which is great news for the many Uzbek farmers that grow peanuts. The brains behind the factory was the host-brother of a Peace Corps Volunteer.

• Both the Uzbek and Turkmen economies are reported to have grown 7% in 2004.

• Turkmenistan continues to slowly slide into its role of the Central Asian version of North Korea. The parliament, in its first day of its new session, declared 2005 The Year of the Rukhnama.

• Kazakhstan has suffered its first casualty in Iraq.

CAUCASUS REGION

• Georgia's Prime Minister, Zurab Zhvania, died from carbon monoxide poisoning in the apartment of a friend. The FBI, at the request of the Georgian government, will assist with the investigation. I am inclined to believe that the death is a tragic accident, but other events that happened within days of the death have caused suspicion. A car bombing in Gori that the Georgian government blames on outside forces (Russia and South Ossetia, probably) took place a few days before Zhvania's death. A few days later, a government official who was a member of Zhvania's party, committed suicide.

• And, by itself, there are odd circumstances surrounding Prime Minister Zhvania's death. Neeka summarizes them.

• After forcing out the OSCE border monitoring mission in the Pankisi Gorge, Russia again accused Georgia of harboring Chechen terrorists. Such accusations would be much easier to listen to if Russia didn't so nakedly make clear that it cares more about keeping Georgia under its thumb than resolving security problems in the Caucasus.

• Russia's assertiveness in the Caucasus has more or less been a disaster for Russian influence. It appears to have learned its lesson and will be slightly retooling its foreign policy.

• Central Asia is apparently not alone in having strange notions of what some Western political notions really mean. Georgia is moving its Constitutional Court to Kutaisi from Tbilisi as part of its government decentralization plans. I supposed that they meant decentralizing power not office space.

• Though the earthquake happened in 1988, the afflicted areas in Armenia still receive aid to help people recover.

AFGHANISTAN

• To remind everyone of how reliable the Russian media is, Vremya Novostei reports that Afghanistan and the United States are teaming up to use the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in a plot for regional domination.

• Next time you're in Kabul and feeling an itch to hit the links, be sure to check out the Kabul Golf Club, a "desert style" course.

• A profile of Masooda Jalal, the Afghan Minister of Women's Affairs

• Afghanistan is seeking the return of warplanes from its neighbors. Mohammed Nabi Karinzai, who fled for Pakistan in his Su-7 and now lives in the U.S., said he'd be happy to fly his plane back if it still flies, but that Afghanistan would be better off with F-16s.

• The Revolutionary Association for the Women ofAfghanistan still runs schools in Kabul, but both Roya and I note that the story seems strange.

• One of the two remaining Jews was buried in Jerusalem after his family, who had not seen him for 26 years, arranged for his body to be transported from Kabul.

LIGHTER FARE

• Breeding sharks on the steppe... It's rare that you'll hear someone opine that baby sharks are a sign of progress, but, yep, I'm doing it.

• Two new books--both fiction--with Central Asia connections came out this month. Peter Lecourt's The Manhattan Beach Project is more or less about a reality show set in Uzbekistan ("The Osbournes meet the Sopranos" in the words of the reviewer) that becomes a smash hit and causes much political turmoil. Tom Bissell, a former Peace Corps Volunteer and author of the superb Chasing the Sea, has a new collection of short stories largely set in Central Asia called God Lives in St. Petersburg.

• Sacha Baron Cohen nearly started a riot at a Virginia rodeo where he mangled the national anthem as Borat Sagdiyev. The one person who suffers most from Borat's antics seems to be Roman Vassilenko, the press secretary for the Kazakh embassy in the United States. Mr. Vassilenko had to once again remind everyone that Borat does not accurately represent Kazakhstan, pointing out that he "doesn't even look like a Kazakh" (though one could safely assume the same about Mr. Vassilenko).

The next Central Asia & Caucasus briefing will appear in a month. In the meantime, keep up with regional affairs at The Argus.