The NY Times Magazine today has an article today that more than piqued my interest.
When I first met Ammar Abdulhamid in Washington in the fall, the 38-year-old Syrian novelist, poet and liberal dissident had Damascus on his mind. He had received word from his wife back in Syria that the political situation at home was becoming more precarious for rights activists like himself. As a fellow at the Brookings Institution, he'd been meeting with leading figures in the Bush administration and writing articles in the Arab and Western presses that were sharply critical of the Syrian government; he simply didn't know what to expect on his return. Now, sitting here in a Damascus coffeehouse in late January a week after his return, he is telling me that he had found reason for optimism about the country's future in the least likely of places.
"When I arrived at the airport," Abdulhamid says, "I was told I had to go to political security. It took me some time to find out exactly which security apparatus wanted to speak to me, but then I met with them for two days in a row. I was very up front about my activities and even talked about things they didn't know yet, like an article I had co-written with an Israeli. One of my interrogators told me that what I was doing would have been unthinkable a few years ago, and he's right. I got the sense from even some of the security police that they see there has to be a new way of doing things in Syria."Things aren't the same in the last Ba'athist dictatorship. Why?
Recently, intellectuals from Iraq, Jordan and Tunisia petitioned the United Nations for a tribunal to prosecute both terrorists and the religious figures who incite violence. In Egypt, two new publications, Nahdet Misr and Al Masry Al Youm, fault the region's leaders and clerics alike for keeping Arabs from joining the modern world. The Iraqi election posed a stark challenge to regional autocrats. While Abdulhamid harbors mixed feelings about the United States' decision to invade Iraq, he says he believes that the American presence in the region is vital to the prospects for reform. "We are an important part of the world," he says, "and our inability to produce change on our own terms invites people in. The world is not going to wait for us."No, it won't.
That creaking sound you hear is the beginning of a landslide. It will be out of our control to be sure, but the landscape is going to be reshaped.
Juan Cole is in a panic about it, over at the Washington Post:"This is a government that will have very good relations with Iran. The Kurdish victory reinforces this conclusion. Talabani is very close to Tehran," said Juan Cole, a University of Michigan expert on Iraq. "In terms of regional geopolitics, this is not the outcome that the United States was hoping for."I don't share the unbridled faith that it will be reshaped to our advantage; but I do think that in the intermediate run it will be shaped to the advantage of men like Ammar Abdulhamid and the ITM brothers (all three of them). And in the long run, that will suit us just fine. [Update: The NY Times is also challenging Professor Cole's claim:
The verdict handed down by Iraqi voters in the Jan. 30 election appeared to be a divided one, with the Shiite political alliance, backed by the clerical leadership in Najaf, opposed in nearly equal measure by an array of mostly secular minority parties.According to Iraqi leaders here, the fractured mandate almost certainly heralds a long round of negotiating, in which the Shiite alliance will have to strike deals with parties run by the Kurds and others, most of which are secular and broadly opposed to an enhanced role for Islam or an overbearing Shiite government.
When you say that the NY Times is challenging proessor Cole's claim, IMO you are mixing up apples and oranges. Per Robin Wright's WaPo article, both the Iraqi Shia and the Iraqi Kurds, who are SUNNI muslims, have close ties to the government of Iraq. This is what Professor Cole's concern is. Whether the new Iraq might become a Shia theocracy is a separate issue.
Today's meme for MSM is that Sistani is Khomenei. The religious nuts have won. It would be nice if someone like Cole would explain Sistani's views on the role of the clericy in government, but that would be almost encouraging. Instead, Cole argues that the ultimate role of the clericy is irrelevant because Iraq appears to be taking the path towards islamicism as practiced in the Sudan. The new government will even support Hezbollah.
It would be nice if the MSM would actually discuss the platform for UIA, such as its support for democracy, women's right to participate in politics and pluralism -- someone like this guy.
No, maha, I disagree. Cole's claim is twofold: first, that we'll possibly wind up with a Shia theocracy; and second, that this theocracy will probably wind up in close alignment with Iran politically, because of their common form of government and religious roots.
The first is unlikely given the politics and if you listen to Sistani's statements; the second is unlikely based on the gulf between Persian Irananians and Arab Iraqis - who have a fair amount of mutual bad blood. (this last is from my conversations with Iraqis in Iraq today)
A.L.
Dude has a blog.
prak -
Holy Cow!! OK, I've got to read a bunmch of it and post...
...thanks...
A.L.