Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today.
Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by evariste of Discarded Lies. Bill Roggio of the fourth rail returns to the briefing next week. He's been doing yeoman's work on a little matter called Easongate which you may have heard of. Happy Valentine's Day! That's your love quota for today, from here on out it's all war.
Top Topics
- The FBI is now recruiting foreign nationals while they're on US soil to spy in their home countries when they return, leading to a turf war with the CIA, whose role this has traditionally been. Porter Goss and Robert Mueller are exchanging letters and proposed memoranda of understanding over the matter, to solidify the relationship between the two agencies.
- The Chinese military is engaging in espionage on a vast scale in Silicon Valley.
- As China aggressively builds up its naval power, India seems to have decided that it will develop its navy as a strategic force. It's equipping its navy with "nuclear powered and strategic bomber and maritime strike aircraft and submarines".
- Palestinian sources say Hezbollah has threatened to assassinate Abbas for making too-genuine peacemaking noises at Israel.Both Israeli and Palestinian sources say that Iranian and Syrian backed Hezbollah is trying to recruit suicide bombers to derail the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire. Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades: We must give Abu Mazen's political and domestic steps a chance. Anyone who attempts to foil them will be treated as someone who wants to preserve a state of anarchy. I blame the Bush administration for the sudden flat tire that the Cycle of Violence seems to have suffered. Israel is allowing some 56 terrorists deported to Europe or Gaza to return to the West Bank in a bid to bolster Abbas' negotiations with Hamas to honor the ceasefire-this had been one of Hamas' conditions.
Other Topics Today Include:
Iran UFO mania: now they're IFOs!; Iran: we won't give up the heavy waters; US using MEK to infiltrate Iran; Iran develops stealth torpedo; Iran guns down dissidents in Pak; Rafsanjani echoes North Korea and demands to deal directly with Uncle Sam; Germany calls on US to give Iran more carrots and make nicer; Hamas to be next Hezbollah?; Syria wants Russian antimissile system; UAE to receive first batch of F16s; Saudi minister says ideology not unemployment behind terrorism; angry Israelis slash Bibi's tires; Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti says "just say No to terrorism"; Homeland Security study to unleash gases upon NYC; 9790 faith-based ghosts will patrol the border along with 210 new agents; Russia to sell Chavez 100000 AK-74s to use as flowerpots; Nevada after drivers to report fishy individuals; 17+ Colombians killed in FARC ambush; Halliburton's Americium can't be found in Americia; USS San Francisco cmdr relieved, reprimanded; Castro blusters; Somalia sucks; African regional groups come into their own?; Hutu guerrillas still causing mayhem; Al Qaeda's chances in Ethiopia; Nigeria and (maritime, not mp3) piracy; what's behind Rummy's renewal of China military ties; Pakistan failed state by 2015; Indonesia cleans up money laundering act; North Korea freaks everyone out; Pakistani army pays Al Qaeda a half mil; India's carrots are bland and undergrown, and its sticks are skinny and twiggy; Nepal chaos; Belgium nearonazis grow cos Islamist menace not being dealt with by mainstream parties; Binnie claimed to have nuke material, tried to get blueprints; Al Zawahiri issues B-side of blah, blah, blah; NATO realigns in Afghanistan; El Baradei ouster still on US agenda and more...
IRAN REPORTS
- Iran's UFO mania in 2004 was justified. The US has been flying pilotless drones over Iran for nearly a year to seek evidence of Iran's nuclear program and to test Iran's air defenses, according to three blabbermouths telling tales out of school. The Iranians lodged an official complaint with the Swiss (since we don't talk to them) and decided not to engage the drones in any way, including turning on radar, because it might help us figure out more about their air defenses.
- Iran categorically refused European entreaties to end its heavy-water reactor project in favor of a light-water reactor. Heavy-water reactors are much more suitable for the production of nuclear weapons.
- US Special Forces are directing members of Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) in carrying out reconnaisance and intelligence collection in Iran?
- Iran has begun producing stealth torpedoes that can be launched by helicopters, ships, and submarines and hit surface and subsurface targets.
- Rafsanjani called for the US to enter direct dialog with Iran. A few breaths later he said the United States can't stop Iran's nuclear program, and "advised" the US that "the revolution is here to stay". Thanks for the advice!
- The father of Iran's bomb? Yup. A. Q. Khan, according to an ISI investigation into the bastard. Musharraf still refuses to hand him over to the CIA.
- The sordid tale of how Iran rounded up and neutralized the CIA's entire Iranian espionage operation a decade ago.
- Germany's Defense Minister called on the US to give Iran economic and security incentives and ends its isolation. This all-carrot, no-stick approach seems to be loved by Europeans for some reason.
THE MIDDLE EAST
- Rafiq Hariri was killed by a car bomb after voicing support for Lebanese independence from Syria. (Thanks to Colt.)
- I don't understand this, but it's about fired FBI whistleblowing translator Sibel Edwards and also Turkey. Maybe you can make heads or tails of it.
- Syria's trying to buy Russia's S-400 antimissile system; Russia claims this system is more effective than the US PAC-3 system.
- The Saudi labor minister, who like most labor ministers can't really do much about job creation, blamed extremist teachings and indoctrination for terrorism, saying unemployment had little to do with it. "Don't look at me!"
- UPDATE: Hoax-no they didn't. Thanks to Colt. Angry Israelis pelted Bibi Netanyahu with stuff at a wedding party and slashed his tires over his support (and yes vote) for Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan. He wasn't hurt.
- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti came out with a long-overdue fatwa calling terrorism "an ugly evil" which must be fought at every level. Hey, nice of you to join us, pally.
AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS
- As part of a Homeland Security grant for a study that will stretch until 2007, a team of about 50 scientists and emergency planners will release 6 different harmless gases from tall NYC rooftops and use 31 air-sampling devices to measure how the air might flow in NYC's urban-canyon environment.
- There will be only 210 new Border Patrol agents, not 10000, if the Bush administration gets its way. I feel safer already.
- The US is protesting Russian plans to sell Venezuela a large batch (a hundred frickin' thousand) of AK-74 kalashnikovs. Russia is defending the deal (which also involves "a number" of helicopters) on the grounds that Venezuela is not at war with anyone and the deal does not break international law. Venezuela is also said to be considering the purchase of Russia's MiG-29 fighters.
- Nevada's enlisting cabbies and limo drivers to be on the lookout for suspicious individuals who want to blow the sin nervecenter of America to kingdom come.
- FARC terrorists ambushed and killed at least 17 Colombian soldiers in a remote northwestern jungle area.
- Commander Kevin Mooney of the USS San Francisco, the submarine that ran aground, will be relieved of his command and will receive a letter of reprimand from his commander, which is typically career-ending for an officer. It's not clear why, exactly-the undersea mountain that the sub hit wasn't on their maps.
- Castro warned the US against plotting to kill his buddy Chavez. Someone cares what Castro says, but he couldn't be found for comment.
AFRICA
- A look at life in lawless Somalia. Hint: not so pleasant or sophisticated.
- Can African regional groups supersede French meddling and impose democracy on Togo, where a son has now succeeded his father as President in contravention of the constitution? Well, both the 53-nation African Union and the 15-nation Economic Community Of West African States have condemned the move in the small military dictatorship, with ECOWAS actually threatening economic sanctions if he did not step down.
- A decade after the genocide in Rwanda, 15000 Hutu guerrillas are still hiding in the forests of eastern Congo, emerging to wreak havoc and keeping the border region on the verge of war.
- This analysis of Al Qaeda's chances in Ethiopia is interesting. Quotes: "the threat has the potential to escalate exponentially", "all indicators suggest the problem is going from bad to worse", "The US military does not plan on walking away from East Africa any time soon".
- The same leaders who made peace between the north and south of Sudan are complicit in the atrocities in the west (Darfur).
- 30 people were killed by pirates last year. Of them, half were in Nigeria, which has the world's most dangerous waters.
ASIA & AUSTRALIA
- This analysis looks at the implications and subtexts of Rumsfeld's decision to renew direct military ties between China and the United States, which had been suspended since the crisis in which a US surveillance plane was forced down by a collision with Chinese fighter.
- The CIA says Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015. No one is shocked.
- North Korea announced it already has nuclear weapons, plans to produce more, and is withdrawing from the six-way talks.
- The Pakistani army made a bizarre deal to indirectly pay Al Qaeda half a million bucks in order to help formerly wanted tribal militants settle their debts with Al Qaeda, in a peace deal signed with a tribe in the near-lawless Waziristan area.
- The Philippines' most elite US-trained anti-terrorist fighting unit has been flown to the remote southern Philippine island of Sulu to quell violence by supporters of a jailed muslim leader. Philippine communist revolutionaries (with a surprisingly slick website) are threatening US forces.
- This Indian Express editorial points out that India's ability to influence regional events and outcomes as a major power is hobbled by the fact that India neither has very good sticks nor very good carrots.
- Nepal's King is threatening to resort to buying weapons from Pakistan or China should India make good on its threat of retaliating for his suspension of democratic government by refusing to provide him with any more weapons. India made good on its threat and suspended all military assistance to Nepal. The Maoist rebels have mounted their first major challenge to King Gyanendra, blockading transportation in all of Nepal until he withdraws the decision to sack the government, removes the state of emergency and restores civil liberties. For once, I'm with the Maoists. 500 Nepalis demonstrated for the restoration of the Republic in New Delhi.
EUROPE
- As elsewhere in Europe, fear of Islamists is driving the growth of far-right parties in Belgium.
- The UK has arrested a Pakistani man and charged him with conspiracy to cause an explosion likely to cause serious damage or endanger life; the offense in question happened as early as 16 months ago but he has only now been arrested upon attempting entry to the UK.
THE GLOBAL WAR
- Bin Laden indicated to a Pakistani scientist that he had nuclear material and wanted to know how to weaponize it.
- Ayman al Zawahiri issued a new audiotape denouncing various things. It was frankly boring and not much different from what you might hear at a WTO protest.
- NATO's Afghan mission is expanding from Kabul and parts of the north to cover more territory (in the West near the Iranian border) and involve more troops (500 more for a total of 8900) from more nations. Italy, Spain and Lithuania are increasing their troops in support of this redeployment; the UK will increase its contribution from 800 to 5000 next year.
- US prosecutors say a wealthy Pakistani businessman held at Guantanamo Bay urged Al Qaeda operatives to obtain nuclear weapons to use against US troops, and said he knew where to get them. He also participated in a plot to smuggle explosives into the United States (what, we didn't have enough already?) and help Al Qaeda stash large cash money.
- Mohammad El Baradei began his third term in office last month after the US failed to find anyone to challenge him. Still, the US is trying to oust him, gathering support for a vote of no-confidence in the IAEA chief.
We try to close on a lighter note if possible.
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.
For ongoing tips, email "MondayWindsOfWar", over here @windsofchange.net.








I thought the light sarcastic tone was out of place...until I read all the dreck you had to wade thru to put out the report. Glad to see you are trying to keep a sense of humour, which can't be easy reviewing this stuff.
The Syrians (probably) killed Rafik Hariri in Beirut.
No they didn't.
Evariste,
Thanks for the roundup. Great info. Though man, quite the downer for the week.
Pakistan failed state? That's probably the most worrying, in light of the fact that there are very few options in Pakistan, over 150 million people, and nuclear weapons, which the good Dr. Khan seems to have had a fire sale on throughout the world.
Also, Africa seemed hopeless...
It's interesting that this week was laced with Pakistan stories - all nuclear "tomfoolery" leads to Pakistan. Was that a choice for the week (the Pakistani focus) or was this simply chance?
Colt-thanks! I'll update the entry with both of those. I can't believe I missed the Rafik Hariri story.
JC, the frequent appearances of Pakistan were by chance.
The US is protesting Russian plans to sell Venezuela a large batch (a hundred frickin' thousand) of AK-74 kalashnikovs.
I wonder why an unstable person like Chavez needs 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles. I'll bet a few people in Guyana and Colombia are asking themselves that question.
Meanwhile, at the United Nations, the guardians of world peace are shopping around for document shredders.
JC-
It's not like it was a successful state before.
Evariste - good point about Pakistan as it is now.
If I were trying to make a reasonable, but surprising prediction about failed states, I would have said:
By 2015 Germany might be a failed state.
(Other WE countries come to mind for this, but Deutschland has got to be the front runner.)
The Hariri hit raises the stakes between the U.S. and France, and Syria. Hariri was a major - major - contributor to Jacques Chirac's election campaign. It was clear to everyone that Syria wanted France to back down over Lebanon, but now Syria is killing very important people to make the point.
East Pakistan, anyone?
Not directly related, but interesting...
Meaningless Abu Ghraib
The Saudi Minister of Labor has been in the job less than eight months. He didn't create the problem.
DPH-fascinating.
John-he didn't create the problem. He also won't solve it, nor will his successor, nor the next 1000 Ministers of Labor. Business creates jobs. Ministers (and Secretaries) of Labor don't create anything.
So your saying Pakistan can't be trusted. Well, we all know about that. You think it's your friend and then when you're backs turned, wham. At least with enemies you know where you stand. And Pakistan probably works with other 'friends', secretly planning to bring us down. Of course in the end it never works. Backstabbers get seen for what they are and every dog has it's day.
I'm sure you know what I mean.