For those who missed it, renegade Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov was killed (by his own men?) in a special operation by Russian forces yesterday. I have no great love for Maskhadov for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being his tacit alliance with Shamil Basayev, but as I noted in my thoughts on Beslan the Russians could very likely have achieved a political settlement with Maskhadov that would have ended or at least strongly mitigated the conflict.
Understand that while the majority of the Chechen and Arab fighters led by Basayev are Wahhabis whose views are an anathema to most Chechens, the only reason that they maintain the level of popular support that they do that has enabled them to receive information, shelter, and supplies from the locals is due in no small part (in addition to Russian brutalities) to the fact that Maskhadov is seen as legitimate because he was the only president chosen by the Chechen people in an election that meant anything. Alive, Maskhadov could have been convinced to surrender (a cause that the late President Kadyrov very nearly succeeded at before he was assassinated in May) as other rebel leaders have and helped to put an end to the fighting. Dead, Basayev can use him as a martyr to a cause that has nothing to do with Chechen independence, but everything to do with global jihad.
Maskhadov, recall, was tentatively opposed to Basayev's idea of stirring up Islamist rebellions in Ingushetia, Dagestan, and other Muslim republics in the North Caucasus. His death removes any remaining (if impotent) check on that ambition and ensures that Basayev will almost certainly follow through on his plan to expand his separatist campaigns further and further north. Indeed, to a certain extent this has already occurred with events like the virtual sacking of Nazran in Ingushetia over the summer.
According to some estimates, there are nearly as many Ingush and Dagestani Wahhabis in Basayev's ranks now as there are Chechens. If these separatist campaigns continue to radiate outwards, Putin is likely to adopt further and further inept hard-line measures (i.e. the kind of "scorched earth" stuff that we've seen in Chechnya) that have only prolonged the fighting in Chechnya proper. While the chances of these separatist efforts actually succeeding are extremely slim (as is also the case in South Thailand, I would point out), since the people bankrolling Basayev like Abu Omar al-Saif are more interested in the conflict itself than in any kind of coherent solution we can expect the fighting to continue for the immediate future.
Also, for all those geniuses in the punditocracy who think that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will end Islamic terrorism, I would actually argue that the Chechen conflict is just as big if not more of a factor as far as radicalization is concerned among European Muslims. European jails are filled to the brim these days with guys who went off to Chechnya to fight and then came back home with plans to carry out terrorist attacks - can you say the same about people who have gone to the Palestinian territories? Regardless of how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may have factored into many would-be terrorists' radicalization, it is Chechnya that they actually went to go fight. This is one of a great many reasons why anything that keeps the conflict going is a bad thing.
Understand, it is not my intention to legitimize Maskhadov or paint him as some kind of noble figure. The guy was a thug and a murderer, though the same might be said for many a Russian potenate these days. He was also a tacit supporter of one of bin Laden's chief allies and through that responsible for God knows how much destruction in the Caucasus by lending his cloak of legitimacy to Basayev. Under normal circumstances, one might hope that his death might bring some closure to the conflict, but I myself don't see that happening any time soon.
For those who are interested, it is none other than Basayev himself or his senior lieutenant Count Doku Umarov who are likely to succeed Maskhadov.
You're right - Basayev is the guy they should have taken out.
History has showed that the likelyhood of an independent Chechnya isn't exactly slim. It worked in Ireland, Algeria and Eritrea.
One can easily imagine a situation in which Russia acceded to an independent Chechnya as they did back in the 1990s. However, can you seriously foresee a scenario in which Russia is willing to lose the entire North Caucasus to Basayev?
Many Chechens believe that Basayev is working in concert with Russian special forces. See, in this connection, Ruslan Isayev's mini-survey of Chechen opinion on Maskhadov's killing, at Prague Watchdog:
http://www.watchdog.cz/?show=000000-000004-000001-000161&lang=1
As I understand it, the Chechen's will appoint Maskhadov's successor from within the ranks of their 'military council'. Basayev isn't a member of the council, and can't therefore be elected as their new 'President'.
Of course, this doesn't mean that he won't be able to manipulate whoever does emerge atop the heap of rubble that is today's Chechnya's opposition, nor does it mean that his position as the most prominent member of Chechnya's opposition would be damaged by the appointment of another moderate in the Maskhadov mould.
Hmm, you're probably right, I just going off the Kommersat report saying that Basayev and Doku were the main contenders for the top spot.
I just shook my head in dismay when I saw this story. Putin is a bonehead. He's not even Machiavellian-ruthless, he's just plain stupid-ruthless. The smart thing to do would have been to play Maskhadov off against Basayev to try and leech off support from him, divide and conquer, etc. Then cut Russia's losses, hand the Chechens their full autonomy and have done with it. Instead this is just going to make them all rally 'round Basayev even more, and whe whole thing is just going to drag on and on and on... and the bodies pile up.
Can't they have a referendum about independence in a few year (it was ten years a few years back)
Most Chechens probably don't even want independence, and think they should be part of Russia - if only Russia would respect their basic human rights. As Thomas de Waal wrote in WSJ recently: "Much Western categorization of Chechnya has been misleading and superficial. To call the conflict a front in the 'international war on terror' obscures more than it reveals. The number of international jihadis in Chechnya is tiny and it remains essentially a homegrown problem. Terror is now one part of the equation but simply killing terrorists will not solve the problem. But nor is this 'deliberate genocide.' Moscow still promises the Chechens high levels of autonomy and pours money into Chechnya. The problem is the executors on the ground of whatever policy there is – Russian soldiers and their Chechen cronies tend to be brutal, xenophobic or highly corrupt.'
2 American divisions in Chechnya would solve the problem in a few years. Unfortunately, the American public would never stand for such a waste of resources given how much flak we'd get from Russia and the EU.
Rumsfeld was rather prescient in ordering troops stationed in West Europe to Eastern Europe. Russia's going to be the wildcard in the next few decades. And like all problem nations, will seek to export that problem to the United States.
"Unfortunately, the American public would never stand for such a waste of resources given how much flak we'd get from Russia and the EU."
Er, WHAT? No sane Americans wants to put US troops in Chechnya.
I don't know if they want to be independent but i suspect that they want the Russians and their helpers gone and that just means independents
People focus on the wishes of the "ordinary" Chechens as if they count for something. Sadly, they just don't. The only ones who count for anything are those with the money and the guns. Mashkadov dead or alive would make no difference, there was no way he'd play Michael Collins to Basayev's De Valera anymore than Arafat would with his bunch.
The gunmen have a goal (a new "Caliphate" comprising most of the Caucuses that is incompatible with Russia's sovereignty. The war will simply continue until a truly MASS atrocity by the Chechens to "break" the Russians backfires and we get a truly "industrial" response which could be anything from a WWII mass army slaughtering it's way through the Caucuses or nukes or anything in between.
Russia at the moment seems weak because it's leadership is divided, with Putin more as figurehead than real power (in the various security services). Regardless of who leads the nation, however, they will simply not permit Chechen independence much less the new Caliphate of their Caucuses territory. Any more than China will let Taiwan declare it's formal independence.
Sadly, this looks like it will only get solved by a mass slaughter.
For all his undeniable defects, Aslan Maskhadov was a legitimately elected president, as known throughout the world. The elections in which he became president in 1997 were monitored and approved by the OSCE. He was a public supporter of the peace process: this is quite contrary to the Kremlin’s own plans. Maskhadov’s last initiative, a one-month unilateral ceasefire, placed the Kremlin in a quandary – the requirement to somehow react to the peace gesture was not only unbearable to Moscow, but contradicted its strategic aim of maintaining the extremely high level of tension in the North Caucasus.
It should be asked: why is the Russian government doing everything it can to exacerbate the conflict in Chechnya, rather than trying to resolve it by peaceful means? What is Moscow's strategy, and who is it designed to protect?
Sounds to me like the argument is whether Basayev or Maskhadov should have been killed/captured FIRST. I see them both as dangerous to anti-Islamofascist efforts in the region, and it matters only slightly which goes first. Whoever you can GET first. Both are pus in a boil that must be lanced. And lancing it is just barely begun. It will get bloodier. (Though I will concede Putin doesn't seem a very skilled surgeon - more the Civil War amputation-type surgeon.)
Essalamu-eleykum .
I am very sad about Aslan Maskhadov's Death so may I Allah give me paradise .
Mr jassaret
Essalamu-eleykum.
sorry my mean is Give to Him paradise
Mr Jassaret
Maskhadov dead or alive makes no difference in Chechnya. Sure, the Russians could have "negotiated" with him, but it would make zero difference with Basaev, Umarov, and the Al-Qaedian Wahabiistists running around loose. Kill them, you end the conflict. The Russians need to be more ruthless with the bandits than they have been. They are making some headway on this - recently "Amerikanets" was killed (another thug terrorist).
Maskhadov, btw, quit being the legitimate president the moment he allowed the terrorists to make incursions on to the territories of Ingushetia, Dagestan, and, of course, Russia proper.
Maskhadov was a true hero. All people have the chance to choose the way how to day. Some of them die with the weapon in their hands, defending their Fathers land, defending their relatives, houses.. and some people die in the bed, with no history. I mean, Maskhadov died as a hero, and Putin will die with no history.
Look, how many of russian soldiers inside of Chechnya, I guess near 100 000. And how manye chechen soldiers are fighting against the occupants, I think a few thousand. Very big difference. And fighting for almost 6 years.
Today the russian Putin said that Maskhadov was a terrorist. Damn! How crazy is he. More than 150 000 chechen civilians were died under russian bombs, in filtration camps, and they still killing chechens there. We also remember Beslan, Nord-Ost, when russian civilins were killed by russian soldiers. Crazy Russia what are you doing?
http://www.petitiononline.com/cheche/petition.html