Monday Winds of War: Mar 28/05

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today.

Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.

Top Topics

• JI and Abu Sayyaf, two of the deadliest Islamist terror groups in SE Asia, are teaming up in the southern Philippines. This report says that Abu Sayyaf is turning into a mega-terror group capable of carrying out a Bali.

• The US wants to help India become a major world power in the 21st century-Condi presented a plan to that effect to India's Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the US is to sell both Pakistan and India F-16 fighters. Pakistan already has 32 operational F-16s. Actually, India's being offered F-18s if it wants them, and technology transfer too.

• Is "Peak Oil" finally here? Most major energy companies report adding less than two thirds as much oil to their reserves than they pumped. Surplus capacity has eroded from 6 million bpd in 2002 to 1-1.5 mn bpd.

• The Individual Ready Reserve is being called on again as the military faces recruitment problems; 5600 people this time for Afghanistan and Iraq.

• Israeli war planners want sea-based power projection capability to deploy sizable forces with all their gear thousands of miles from Israel, saying it's necessary for Israel to fight the war on terrorism. The IAF's abilities are no longer considered sufficient.

• Where's the exit? Factions of the Iraqi insurgency are looking for an "exit strategy" after the successful election in January. This is further evidence that delaying the election would have been a bad idea. Austin Bay says part of the exit strategy would include turning in Zarqawi.

• The Kyrgyzstan opposition ejects president-for-life Askar Akayev, but the status of the new government is in dispute.

• A new terror organization called Jund Ash Sham staged Qatar's first suicide attack. They also claimed responsibility for an explosion at a Texas refinery that killed 15. The house used to make the bomb has been found.

Other Topics Today Include:
CIA bungling; Iranian stockpiling; US to weaken Assad; Lebanese politics paralyzed; the Coast Guard arming up; FBI bungling; the Tri-Border area; Portland vs. the Feds; Zimbabweans miss the white man; Nigeria a powderkeg as usual; everyone annoyed with Japanese designs on their islands; Baluchistan chaos; we can assassinate Al Qaeda terrorists says Porter Goss; Harrier jump-jet proves its worth and much, much more...

IRAN REPORTS

• More CIA bungling of the Iran file. A CIA spy operation that infiltrated Iranian activities in South America to the extent that CIA moles were invited to Iran was shut down prematurely. It operated as recently as 2002.

• Richard Clarke asks if Iran is winning.

• Iran is stockpiling high-tech small arms. It's also seeking satellite intelligence on the US's activities in Afghanistan and Iraq.

• Dan Darling reviews the International Crisis Group's report on Iran's involvement in Iraq (part 1 and part 2).

• China continues to proliferate to Iran.

THE MIDDLE EAST

• 48 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were arrested in Egypt, leading to 3000 of them demonstrating against the regime.

• Walid Phares says Syria has a secret plan with Iran to foment more chaos in Lebanon after leaving-never really "leaving" at all.King Abdullah lashed into Syria's promotion of Palestinian terrorism. Most Lebanese households are already armed, but many are buying more guns out of fear.

• The Israeli Defense Minister warns that Palestinians have smuggled Strella antiaircraft missiles into Gaza.

• In Cairo,an Egypt and Syria sponsored conference led to most of the major Palestinian factions (13 terrorist groups) signed an initial agreement on their integration into the PLO and PA. The US and Israel didn't know quite what to make of this, so they did the usual greeting it cautiously thing.

• A pro democracy demonstration in Bahrain.

• The United Nations issued a report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which falls just short of laying the blame on Syria.

• DEBKA is highly sceptical about a deal being forged by Shin Bet to let 500 fugitive terrorists possibly keep their private arsenals of weaponry.

• Iraqis are fighting back against the terrorists.

• The US is to weaken the Assad regime by supporting dissidents.

• Iraq's new Navy is taking part in a Gulf Cooperation Council 8-day naval exercise. So are a Pakistani contingent.

• Lebanon's politics is paralyzed with an impasse over the formation of a national unity government.

AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS

• The Coast Guard is getting its helicopters armed with machine guns, as well as training for its security teams to rappel onto and take over a hostile ship and new high-tech command centers as part of Homeland Security beef-ups.

• The EU made token remarks to Castro asking him to free the dissidents he's jailed before hurrying up to talk more about trade.

• "The only terrorism response group in the country" (?), the San Diego Metropolitan Medical Strike Team, held a successful drill.

• Canada: don't give us your war deserters yearning to breathe free.

• Bush signed legislation to extend the life of a group charged with declassifying CIA documents related to dealings with Nazi war criminals by two years.

• A Yemeni was fired from the Air Force for expressing his sympathy with UBL. He then went on to lie in order to get a job as a TSA screener; he's under trial for it.

• A former military translator who spent 17 months in jail for removing a disc from Guantanamo Bay was handed back the very same disc as part of his personal effects by the FBI.

• What's going on in the Tri-Border Area?

• The city of Portland, Oregon is preparing for a showdown with the Feds March 30th. The locals want full oversight of any of their police personnel who are assigned to inter-governmental groups like the Joint Terrorism Task Force.

• Al Qaeda Jihad in the US (huh?) claims responsibility for the Texas refinery explosion. Robert Spencer reviews past reports of intelligence gathering in the area. Austin Bay looks back at the results of a horrific 1947 refinery explosion in Texas City, which took the lives of over 576 people.

AFRICA

• South African bureaucrats refused to grant the USS Harry S Truman carrier battle group permission to berth in Durban.

• Zimbabweans say compared to Mugabe, the white man isn't such the devil after all... A civil disobedience movement, 10000 strong so far, has sprouted up to oppose him. DEBKAfile also has a look at the hell Mugabe has created.

• Nigeria has a big problem with sectarianism.

• Amnesty International says Kenya is torturing terror suspects.

• Algerian GSPC praises al Qaeda and its leaders.

• The United Nations Security Council has authorized the deployment of over 10,000 peacekeepers to Darfur, Sudan.

• An al Qaeda linked Somali cleric threatens jihad if peacekeepers are deployed to Somalia.

• Iraqi police nab an Algerian fighter in a raid.

ASIA & AUSTRALIA

• The South Koreans and the Japanese are at loggerheads over some obscure islands controlled by the Koreans and claimed by the Japanese. The South Koreans are preparing for "diplomatic war". The Chinese are also annoyed with the Japanese over some islands.

• Europe is now getting cold feet and unlikely to rescind its ban on selling weapons to China. Japan is annoyed with France over the matter.

• The hunt for bin Laden goes on in Waziristan.

• FARC terrorists, learning from Iraq terrorists, have started to use roadside IEDs with some success. They killed ten marines in a truck Wednesday.

• Pakistani intelligence uncovered a Chechen plot to kidnap and execute a senior Russian diplomat with his entire family in Pakistan.

• Pakistan's restive province of Baluchistan may be closer to full rebellion. Baluch rebels blew up a gas pipeline in Pakistan, as part of their quest for autonomy. Musharraf ruled out a military operation, saying he believed in dialogue.

• Members of the South Korean parliament view the tapes of executions in North Korea.

• Malaysia has given its "floggers" a pay raise per flogging. Illegal immigrants are subject to flogging so this is seen as a move against them. Hangmen also got a raise, because they can't find enough (plenty of floggers, though-they turn away 4 in 5 applicants).

• Pro democracy demonstrations in Mongolia.

• The Philippine military believes it prevented an Easter bombing campaign, arresting one suspect and netting a cache of explosives.

• Bill Rice looks at the F-16 sale to Pakistan, and believes the media has misjudged the implications of this sale and the impact on relations with India.
  
• Pro democracy demonstration in Taiwan. Naruwan Fomosa reports the protests were held globally. The government of Taiwan states it will be difficult to repair relations with China while under the threat of force.

• Arthur Chrenkoff rounds up news on the aftermath of the Tsunami.

• Australia's intel chief and the War on Terror: Australia is aware of up to 80 individuals within its borders who have trained with or have close links to terrorist groups. Most of them will remain free because of legal constraints. In each of the five years since 2000, Australia has been the target of a major terror attack which was either aborted, disrupted, or succeeded.

EUROPE

• Three Algerians were detained for wanting to attack the Russian embassy and Eiffel Tower in Paris.

• The Bosnian Serbian government is spearheading a "Hague or Hell" campaign. They want Serbs to turn in war criminals to avoid getting sanctioned by NATO and the EU.

• "Britain will never again go to war based on intelligence data". Uk, okaaaay. Maybe instead they'll use soothsayers.

• Criminal assets of N Ireland Loyalist paramilitaries were seized.

• In Germany and Europe in general, terror groups are uniting to recruit fighters for Iraq.

• Despite problems with Turkey in the run up to the Iraq war, the massive Incirlik air base may be crucial to confronting future problems in the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

• Pro democracy demonstrations in Belarus turn ugly. Lukashenko will not give up easily.

• Three British citizens are jailed by Egypt for being members of Hizb al-Tahrir. Germany isn't sure what to make of Hizb-ut-Tahrir.

• 15 major terror attacks have been foiled in Europe since 9/11.

• A French terror group is blackmailing the government. (Again).

• The French arrested the Basque separatist group ETA's "military" chief.

• Swiss seize five of the Keyboard Martyrs Brigades.

THE GLOBAL WAR

• A blow-in-the-bag test to detect if you've been exposed to biowarfare agents.

• The Pentagon is doing a lot more spying.

• Paul Wolfowitz's appointment to President of the World Bank gives us the opportunity to learn some lessons on international diplomacy.

• Blackfive looks at the strategic and tactical disadvantages of soldier video in combat zones.

• DARPA investigates drone hunter-killers in light of the proliferation of battlefield UAVs.

• After a redesign, the Harrier jump-jet is proving its mettle in Iraq.

• A Moroccan terror suspect got an apology from a federal judge for the bungled sleeper-cell case against him. He pled guilty to insurance fraud cases and is being deported anyway.

• Porter Goss says the ban on assassinations by US intelligence doesn't apply to terrorists.

• Israel and the US are making sure Patriot and Arrow missile interception batteries can interoperate.

We try to close on a lighter note if possible.

• Is it a pain in the butt waking up? Maybe if they make it a pain in the butt to find the alarm, you'll get up easier.

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