As many of you know, Winds of Change.NET isn't my only blog these days. Here are a few of the articles I've been running on DefenseIndustryDaily.com, in case you've missed them - a combination of interesting tech and a bit of "defenseology" from the military/ organizational side of the ledger:
TOP TOPICS
- April 1 Special: A story about a "dumb" solider - with a cameo by Miyamoto Musashi.
- Dept. of Defense takes over the U.S. Air Force's top 21 weapon-buying programs. Scandals and retirements have taken their toll, and the DoD is taking over. This has implications for $180 billion worth of weapons programs.
- A decade ago, the Marines' AV-8 Harrier vertical-takeoff jet was the most accident-prone plane in America's arsenal. Then an enterprising program manager changed all that. Now the Harrier jet is finding its niche amidst the urban warfare that typifies Operation Iraqi Freedom.
- IT and Communications are huge these days. Britain's armed forces are starting an $8-11 billion deal with EDS, the U.S. Congress is paying special attention to this area as defense budget deliberations continue, the U.S. Army has a $20 billion program on the way, and the USN is buying big bandwidth. Meanwhile, Microsoft continues to tighten its grip on the defense sector. Given the M$ (in)security record, that ought to worry us.
- Some recent U.S. investigations of illegal arms exports by the folks at ICE.
Other Items Include:
MQ-1 Predator plans; V-RAMBO; New semiconductors; battlefield visualization; Shoulder-fired missile defenses for planes; $1.5bn NORAD upgrade; 30,000 JDAMs; Ultralight 155mm howitzers; Halliburton; Navy program way over budget; F/A-22; What's this Joint Common Missile controversy?; BAE buys M2 Bradley manufacturer for $4bn; British to privatize their aerial tanker fleet for $25bn?; Turkey's turkey of an idea; South Korea increasing defense budgets.
INTERESTING TECH
- MQ-1 Predator UAVs have gone from experimental to operational. Now the USAF plans to expand its Predator fleet significantly, even as it funds research into a next-generation MQ-9 replacement.
- Dick Tracy solider-tech - The V-RAMBO looks like a dive computer for your wrist, and beams pictures from flying UAVs straight down to the soldiers wearing them. I think the Israelis have a winner with this one. Ought to pair it with the Predators and especially the Ravens...
- The USA has been funding research into Gallium Nitride semiconductors. It's a better material than silicon, and military orders mean commercial spinoffs. Coming, eventually, to a computer near you.
- How do you protect big transport planes like C-17s and C-130s from terrorists with shoulder-fired missiles? It's called LAIRCM
- Silicon Graphics will be using its advanced visualization systems to help U.S. commanders stay on top of all the information coming in every day. A prototype system could be ready for use in actual operations in Iraq by the end of the year.
- The USA is spending $834 million for full-rate production of the ultralight M777A1 155mm howitzer, which halves the normal weight by using titanium. The goal was airmobile firepower. Mission managed, with some help from the British.
U.S. DEVELOPMENTS
- A $1.5 billion electronics upgrade to NORAD's Cheyenne Mountain facility is now complete. The SG-1 team thanks you.
- $609M. 30,000 JDAMs. Whoop-ass for someone...
- Some of the Marines' new LPD-17 ambhibious assault ships have run into major cost overruns, in part because the Navy changed thedesign part-way through the build. If there's a tsunami in 2015, these ships will probably be the backbone of American relief efforts. The article also offers an interesting look at the government-industry tensions with respect to new programs, and points out how too many political gyrations can be very damaging to defense companies as the demands on their planned production "yo-yo".
- Where's the F/A-22 Raptor program at? Kudos and criticisms, and following Pentagon approval it's now headed for full production at a reduced rate.
- What's the controversy about the Joint Common Missile land-attack weapon all about?
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
- British Aerospace (now BAE Systems) is in the process of buying United Defense Industries for about $4 billion. UDI builds a number of important systems for the U.S. military, including the M2 Bradley used in Gulf War I & II.
- The British may be about to privatize their next-generation air tanker refueling purchase. It's shaping up to be a $25 billion deal.
- Turkey is trying to merge ALL of its major defense companies. Amazingly, the move is being driven by its Defense Ministry, which will probably be the biggest loser of all if this goes through. Um, helloooo - creating a local monopoly here - you're the customer. Turkish logic...
- South Korea is planning significant defense budget increases, and wants to take over wartime command from the USA. The US thinks that's great.
Hi Joe...
We are hearing a lot about the Iranian-Canadian journalist who was beaten to death in Iran in 2003.
Any updates on this? Is windsofchange.net team gonna cover the story?
30,000 JDAMs. Wow.
Anyone know the self-life of those things?
The Turks probably want to consolidate so that they can compete internationally. The local monopoly is counterbalanced by the fact that so much is bought outside the country.
Trent Telenko probably has pointed thoughts on this, but USAF is not going to be able to support space programs, UAV innovations, F22s, and JSF all at the same time. Something is going to break, big time. I'd figure the first to go is space, but that might not happen given Intel reform needs. So then you start gutting manned aircraft procurement rates and deployments. In the long run, you don't have to pay a pension to a UAV guidance system and the ground suppport requirements and initial costs are less as well.
Stocks of 30,000 JDAMs aren't ridiculously huge - and recall their very frequent usage in Afghanistan and Iraq, which draws down the stockpile and requires replacement. 30,000 is to cover that, plus 2006 needs, plus 2007 (note contract completion date at DID).
As for shelf life, very long. The JDAM is not a bomb, just a bolt on kit one adds to a bomb.
RE: the Turks - they're inhaling from their hookah pipe if they believe this will give them an export industry. Their industry is about local production of components for foreign projects, and isn't about to vault beyond that. Turkey's economy, not in great shape, can't fund a leap forward - nd worse, many of these enterprises are already state owned with all that implies. This will be a screwup of gargantuan proportions by the Turks.
Finally, Trent did have some thoughts on the USAF's future a while back. Looks like they're beginning to come true.
>>Trent Telenko probably has pointed thoughts on this, but USAF is not going to be able to support space programs, UAV innovations, F22s, and JSF all at the same time. Something is going to break, big time.
Indeed. WE are that something. The USG/USAF can support as many programs as they can snow and strongarm the US public into supporting. When defense spending reaches 25% of GDP, then things might start to slow down.
T.J., based on the stats right now, if the USA ever got to 10% of GDP (which would be an increase of close to 50%, BTW) it would be able to do all of these things, easily.
Here's a graph for ya, showing GDP% over time...
>Finally, Trent did have some thoughts on the
>USAF's future a while back. Looks like they're
>beginning to come true.
Joe,
The only thing I missed was how badly the Fighter Pilot General Mafia would go after any rival pilot faction in the USAF for the sake of the FA22. They killed the B2 option dead, dead, dead and have also gone after the transport pilots via their attempt to kill the C-130J.
Now they are eating their own by going after the F-16 pilots in the active forces and Guard/Reserve to fund the FA22.
We are rolling move towards unmanned armed planes as I predicted and my appraisal of how corrupt senior USAF Brass institutionl culture was from my USAF Academy posts is playing out exactly as I thought.
Ralph Peters came to much the same conclusions I have on the subject here
And here
I don't agree with Peters that the Congress can save the USAF. It can't. The institution is build around grandstanding for campaign contributions and avoiding responsibility.
It took a senior statesman like Senator Barry Goldwater to get the Goldwaters-Nichols act passed that fixed the "Brass errors" of Vietnam by creating today's the Theater commander structure and reformed the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
There isn't such a statesman in Congress today who can remake the USAF.
Yes, exactly. The fundamental constraints on USAF programs are how much the USG can extort from us and success in intragovernmental turf wars over the loot. And as the graph shows, there's plenty more loot to go after, so we shouldn't bet on even the most ridiculous military projects (like missile defense) being cancelled soon.
>>So then you start gutting manned aircraft procurement rates and deployments. In the long run, you don't have to pay a pension to a UAV guidance system and the ground suppport requirements and initial costs are less as well.
You're not thinking about this the right way. If anything, UAVs will be cut first. Cheaper = smaller budget for the relevant department = less political influence = less prestige. Obsolete junk like aircraft carriers stay around BECAUSE they are so expensive and require so much manpower.
A rational omniscient dictator might actually allocate military spending in the way you discuss. But such entities don't exist (fortunately). So military spending in the real world is allocated on the basis of political influence and institutional logic, not efficiency and functionality.
TJM- your cynicism is not justified by the facts you present, and your theories of how a "rational omniscient dictator" should be inspiring the defense acquisition and budgeting system are jejeune. Trent's arguments, which are founded through a long series of posts and articles on this site would prove a good, if lengthy, introduction to this particular subject of USAF doctrinal and budgetary disparities. Such lines as "Obsolete junk like aircraft carriers stay around BECAUSE they are so expensive and require so much manpower." show that you know little of how such documents as the Quadrennial Defense Review are prepared and translated into working plans and budgets.
I'm going to defer to Chuck Spinney and War Nerd at this point.