Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-04-01

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

THE ETERNAL TRIANGLE (OR SQUARE?)

• Condoleezza Rice's first trip to South Asia successful, at least compared to Colin Powell's disastrous one last year. She managed to further the Bush administration’s agenda and improved relations with India and Pakistan simultaneously.

• In addition to offering India advanced military hardware - including PAC-2 anti-ballistic missiles, F-16s and F/A-18 fighter aircraft - the United States signaled its intention to upgrade its bilateral relationship to one that is more 'global in nature'. Despite India's public protests over the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, it is quite certain that the deal had India's tacit consent.

• The US has certainly made it clear that it plans to make India a regional superpower, which begs the question if there can be two? One of the ways the US plans to help do this is not only through the sale of weapons systems but through increased cooperation between the two countries militaries and especially in that region their navies.

Other Items Covered Include: More on Rice's talks; Peeling the Skin off the Pakistani Onion; Peeling the Skin off India-Pakistan Relations; India, Energy, and Security; India - a Million Matinees Now; Keeping a Eye on Khan; The FBI is a Trusted Brand in Bangladesh; A Million Matinees in the Subcontinent

MORE ON RICE'S VISIT

• Rice was able to get the centre-left government in India to agree to the sale of the much debated F-16s to Pakistan. Although she did not publicly push General Musharraf to hang up his uniform any time soon, she managed to extract more concessions from Pakistan over the A Q Khan nuclear proliferation angle.

• The developments following Rice's trip have led to the question: as they improve their bilateral relations, do India and the United States have an eye on China?

• Her visit, however, was marred by revelations that the United States had actually led its allies astray when it pinned some of Pakistan's illicit nuclear deals on North Korea to bolster its position the six-party talks.

PEELING THE SKIN OFF THE PAKISTANI ONION

• On the surface at least Pakistan is a more stable place today than it was before September 11, 2001. But days after a New York Times reporter filed a story on Karachi's booming stockmarket, it nosedived, sparking riots outside the stock exchange building. In his attempt to use the rising stock market indicators as a proxy for economic growth, Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan's prime minister, had not concentrated enough on following through regulatory and oversight reforms.

• Balochistan remained on the boil with heavy fighting between government troops and local tribesmen. The Pakistani government is tightly controlling the news coming out of the province --- yet, whatever little has emerged suggests a widespread alienation among the local tribes, major civilian casualties in the cross fire and a confused response from the Pakistani government. While a political arrangement seems to be in the offing, the problem remains far from solved.

• Pakistan's radical Islamic opposition parties have launched 'million-man marches' to protest against Musharraf's rule. While they have been unable to muster up as many people as they claimed, their attempts at 'people power' revolutions, on the lines of Kyrgyztan or Ukraine, has found little traction in mainstream Western media.

PEELING THE SKIN OFF INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

• On the surface at least India and Pakistan have improved their relations tremendously --- they are playing a cricket series together, India did not quite throw up a fit when the Bush administration announced the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, and the Indian prime minister even hosted Musharraf's family to dinner.

• India even allowed Musharraf to invite himself to watch a cricket match in India, a move that is reminiscent of another age --- when General Zia ul Haq hopped over to watch a match in the late 1980s. While that visit had cooled tensions a bit, it emerged that General Zia had set off the change in strategy that led to Pakistan's sponsorship of the jihad in Kashmir. Not the best of precedents.

• Musharraf himself showed no signs of putting the Kashmir dispute on the back burner, insisting that the 'core dispute' has to be solved in order to prevent another Kargil.

• Diplomatically, Pakistan is working hard to go one up on India --- it has offered trade and military aid to Nepal and is lobbying hard against India's attempt to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

• Pakistan has made other minor offerings such as releasing 700 or more Indian prisoners who inadvertently crossed borders but things like this are seen as trifles.

INIDA, ENERGY, AND SECURITY

• People around the world are feeling the latest round of gas hikes but most seem to think the costs are associated just with conflict in the middle east and general scarcity. Another major reason is the huge demand from China and India! China is already the second largest consumer of Oil with India soon to be third. For these reason both China and India have started to get more involved in places like the middle east in part to secure energy for their growing economies.

• India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently said, "China is ahead of us in planning for its energy security - India can no longer be complacent." Both China and India are investing Billions on developing Energy supplies outside their own countries and because of this find them selves not only in the position to create conflict between them selves but with other countries such as the US.

• One way India hopes to provide for future energy needs is a natural gas pipeline between India and Iran which just happens to go through Pakistan. This pipeline while offering a plentiful supply of cheap power to India and cash to Iran has a number of draw backs in part that it runs through Balochistan making it ripe for disruptions. The United States also is upset about the pipeline although its unlikely it will damage relations between the two countries in a appreciable way.

• India is also looking for energy in other trouble spots such as Central Asia and countries like Kazakhstan which China has recently started building a cross border pipeline to.

• Energy and resources has always been one of the major points in the Great Game but now it seems that India is not longer just a witness but a player. There is little doubt that as India's economy grows it will find itself in conflict with other countries for resource and having to make important decisions on how to secure its future.

INDIA - A MILLION MATINEES NOW

• The Bush administration refused to allow Narendra Modi, controversial chief minister of India's Gujarat state to travel to the United States, not least due to strong lobbying against his visit by the Indian diaspora. Here are some reactions.

• Regular updates on the Indian economy in general, India's petroleum industry, broadband have emerged on the blogosphere.

• A conservative think-tank objected to a distressed American telecoms company's sale of its assets to an Indian firm, citing national security concerns.

KEEPING A EYE ON KHAN

• This month had some interesting developments on the A.Q. Khan front. Not only did former Pakistan Minister Benazir Bhutto clearly implicated the Pakistani government in the A.Q. Khan affair but US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded access to Khan.
  
• Ms Rice also recently said that the Khan network was a threat to the world and it undoubtedly is.

• Recently the Chinese where caught transferring nuclear WMD technology to Iran in part via the Kahn network. We have been making this connection for sometime now and unfortunately it seems to be correct.

• There are also some claims that Pakistan may turn Khan over to the US but it seems doubtful

THE FBI IS A TRUSTED BRAND IN BANGLADESH

• The FBI's reputation in Bangladesh is strong --- expressing a lack of faith in their domestic investigators, opposition leaders have called for the American agency to investigate the assassination of SAMS Kibria. The FBI is on the case.

• Begum Khaleda Zia's government has become rather sensitive to criticisms by foreign diplomats. In recent weeks envoys from Pakistan, Denmark and Germany had to be replaced at Dhaka's insistence.

• A new political football has been created in Dhaka

A MILLION MATINEES IN THE SUBCONTINENT

• Even as King Gyanendra shows greater progress in muzzling civil rights his progress in defeating the Maoist rebels is less visible. Stung by India's condemnation of his moves, he has been thumbing his nose at India and trying to get closer to China and Pakistan. But this approach does not quite resonate with ordinary Nepalis or hard reality. China is unlikely to directly intervene in Nepal, and Pakistan will be unable to deliver military supplies to King Gyanendra unless India allows the use of its air-space.

• Unlike the ambitious Gyanendra, Bhutan's King Jigme Singye Wangchuk has been instrumental in that country's march towards a constitutional monarchy. A draft constitution was released for public comment and feedback --- yes, the pursuit of gross national happiness is enshrined in it.

• Sri Lanka's Sinhala-nationalist party is a force to reckon with in that country's politics. From left to right, here's its story.

• Tsunami alerts were issued in India and Sri Lanka after another earthquake in the Indian ocean; but nothing happened this time round.