Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday.
Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.
Top Topics
- Bangladesh is fast emerging as a major hotbed of radical Islamist terror groups. One of the most prominent, Harakat ul Jihad il Islami, is implicated in the arming the brutal Marxist insurgency in Nepal, training terrorists in southern Thailand, the simultaneous bombings in the northern Indian state Assam, and the sheltering of key hunted JI figures. It is becoming a magnet for terrorists and quickly spiraling into failed-state status.
- Pakistan plans on continuing to defy the US over Khan, while trying to minimize its dependence on the US. The US is also mounting new pressure on Pakistan to sign the NPT before a May NPT conference, so the IAEA can inspect Pakistan's nuclear sites. Pakistan is hedging its bets with new secret military deals with the Central Asian states with a rapidity that has stunned the US. On the economic front, complete privatization (to Gulf Arab investors) of all major state-owned enterprises over the next five years is planned to allow Pakistan to divorce itself from the need for US aid.
- Israel is to allow Egypt to deploy combat helicopters, anti-tank weapons, LAVs, and 750 commandos along the Gaza-Israel border. Meanwhile, the PA's measures contra weapons-smuggling tunnels are ineffective and all the armed parties are intensifying their efforts to get weapons.
Other Topics Today Include:
Iran Reports, including EU-3 negotiations, cruise missiles, and demonstrations; Israel withdrawal pains in Gaza; Abbas’ security issues; Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations in Cairo?; Yemeni crackdowns, Bahraini Patriot Act; Jihad in Memphis; No Fly growing pains; Venezuelan reserves and opposition update; Philippines the next Afghanistan?; Algerian al Qaeda caught in Pakistan; the return of the PKK in Turkey; Bulgarian jihad; Ricin in the UK; the Taliban attacks; and much, much more…
IRAN REPORTS
- Iranian hardliners may be trying to appease the population by loosening strict punishments on social crimes.
- Despite Chirac's attempt to soften the European stance, EU negotiators stuck firmly to their "no enrichment" position ahead of renewed talks with Iran.
- Geostrategy Direct has a teaser (subscribers only for the full item) that says Iran's growing cruise-missile capability-especially anti-ship cruise missiles-is greatly worrying the US. The source material they relied on is this report: "The Cruise Missile Challenge" [pdf!].
THE MIDDLE EAST
- The Israel Defense Forces estimates three divisions will be needed to evacuate Gaza, and predicts the violence will continue long after the withdrawal.
- A Syrian self-styled Fatah member infiltrated the Syrian-Israeli border and tried to shoot up the fuel tank at the border outpost. He was hoping to kidnap an Israeli soldier. He was wearing a big Palestinian flag t-shirt. Huh?
- Abbas is consolidating his security forces. Meanwhile, members of Abbas' own party (Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades) are continuing to threaten the government.
- This Lebanon Daily Star editorial says that the Syrian regime's chances of survival are grim.
- AL Qaeda was co-developing WMD in Iraq with individuals connected to the Iraqi regime as late as 2004 and disrupting their operations was a major part of the work of the Iraq Survey Group.
AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS
- Venezuela is getting a new reservist force, while the Venezuelan opposition melts away from the scene.
AFRICA
- The war's not over yet, but a donors' conference pledged over $4 billion for Sudanese reconstruction.
ASIA & AUSTRALIA
- Bulgarian police believe the terrorist threat in country is growing.
- Three Chechens and five FSB were killed in a fierce battle in Grozny amid several other battles and deadly incidents in Chechnya.
- Two of Pakistan's airports went on high alert against specific threats.
- Musharraf had thousands of people arrested for wanting to attend planned rallies in celebration of the return of Benazir Bhutto's husband, who now leads an opposition party.
- Musharraf met Rumsfeld, who reaffirmed the US decision to sell Pakistan F-16s.
- Bush is visiting Georgia on May 10th, and the Georgians are hoping to get his support on relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
- Nepal's Maoist rebels ordered private schools to close. The schools tried to defy, but all the ones outside the capital did end up closing because the rebels set off bombs and convinced them they meant business. 64 of the Maoists were killed in clashes with the government. In cognitive dissonance news, King Gyanendra said security has increased since he dismantled the government.
- Protests expressing dissatisfaction with corruption in the Mongolian government and society continue.
EUROPE
- British officials believe an al Qaeda attack is in the works.
- Bulgaria's top cop says the Balkans are fertile ground for terrorists and more must be done to stop them.
- The UK won a case against the EC in the EU's highest court, which sued to try and force the UK to reveal how it was planning to dispose of nuclear waste at a defunct installation. The court sided with the UK because it said national security overrode environmental oversight.
- Solana lied: the EU did have very direct contact with Hamas and praised them as "freedom fighters" in a meeting with Ahmed Yassin.
- The ricin is still missing in the UK. The dismal asylum system there failed in several ways, most glaringly in that no fingerprints were ever taken of Bourgass, nor could his fingerprints have been compared on the spot the second time he was apprehended.
- Eurabian Times looks at the web of links between Huarte and Benesmail, Galan, Almallah, el Morabit in relation to Spain's 3/11 Madrid attacks.
THE GLOBAL WAR
- The Al-Rijjal Brigade, a local Iraqi Islamist terrorist group, joins al Qaeda in Iraq.
- Senator Carl Levin released declassified documents that he says undercut prewar claims of Iraq-Al Qaeda links.
- The Taliban destroyed five trucks carrying oil and injured three drivers in Afghanistan, fresh on the heels of a report that they may begin fresh attacks out of desperation.
- More and better spies are the key to returning US intelligence to potency, says this former CIA man. Or maybe it's Fewer and better spies?
We try to close on a lighter note if possible.
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No worry about the ricin. It should have degrade to harmlessness by now. ATleast that is what the UK goverment claims.
Am I the only one wondering why bases are so poorly secured that it's this easy for migrants to 'wander into' a firing range? I'm no physical security expert but it seems to me that there should be better fencing/sensors/etc., at least around the range itself (it may be impractical to do so everywhere around the base given how large it is, see http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=33.156250,-113.587737&spn=3.593750,7.472060&hl=en).
Have you any idea how large the area is which is in firing range. Also airbases are by definition in flat areas and roads for fuel would be preferable so they are build near roads & people.
Bill - this is truly a power-packed briefing. Thanks so much for all the information!
Meanwhile, the PA's measures contra weapons-smuggling tunnels are ineffective....
Absoutely shocking. How could that be?
I noted last week that Sharon and Mofaz told the Knesset that they would like 4,000 Egyptian troops to patrol the Egypt-Israel border. The remilitarisation of the Sinai continues...