Monday Winds of War April 18/05

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday.

Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.

Top Topics

• Bangladesh is fast emerging as a major hotbed of radical Islamist terror groups. One of the most prominent, Harakat ul Jihad il Islami, is implicated in the arming the brutal Marxist insurgency in Nepal, training terrorists in southern Thailand, the simultaneous bombings in the northern Indian state Assam, and the sheltering of key hunted JI figures. It is becoming a magnet for terrorists and quickly spiraling into failed-state status.

• Pakistan plans on continuing to defy the US over Khan, while trying to minimize its dependence on the US. The US is also mounting new pressure on Pakistan to sign the NPT before a May NPT conference, so the IAEA can inspect Pakistan's nuclear sites. Pakistan is hedging its bets with new secret military deals with the Central Asian states with a rapidity that has stunned the US. On the economic front, complete privatization (to Gulf Arab investors) of all major state-owned enterprises over the next five years is planned to allow Pakistan to divorce itself from the need for US aid.

• Israel is to allow Egypt to deploy combat helicopters, anti-tank weapons, LAVs, and 750 commandos along the Gaza-Israel border. Meanwhile, the PA's measures contra weapons-smuggling tunnels are ineffective and all the armed parties are intensifying their efforts to get weapons.

Other Topics Today Include:

Iran Reports, including EU-3 negotiations, cruise missiles, and demonstrations; Israel withdrawal pains in Gaza; Abbas’ security issues; Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations in Cairo?; Yemeni crackdowns, Bahraini Patriot Act; Jihad in Memphis; No Fly growing pains; Venezuelan reserves and opposition update; Philippines the next Afghanistan?; Algerian al Qaeda caught in Pakistan; the return of the PKK in Turkey; Bulgarian jihad; Ricin in the UK; the Taliban attacks; and much, much more…

IRAN REPORTS

• Iranian hardliners may be trying to appease the population by loosening strict punishments on social crimes.

• Demonstrating Arab separatists clashed with the Iranian army, with three killed, many injured and hundreds arrested.

• Despite Chirac's attempt to soften the European stance, EU negotiators stuck firmly to their "no enrichment" position ahead of renewed talks with Iran.

• Iran appears to be upset that the US and Europe are now coordinating.

• Geostrategy Direct has a teaser (subscribers only for the full item) that says Iran's growing cruise-missile capability-especially anti-ship cruise missiles-is greatly worrying the US. The source material they relied on is this report: "The Cruise Missile Challenge" [pdf!].

• The State Department called an Iranian media event where journalists wandered around nuclear installations a sham, and suggestion Iran make genuine efforts to be transparent and prove it has no intention of obtaining a nuclear weapon.

THE MIDDLE EAST

• Weapons and materials are surfacing in Iraq's bazaars.

• Ha'aretz did a pre-election interview with Hamas, and IMRA has some critical notes on it as well.

• The Israel Defense Forces estimates three divisions will be needed to evacuate Gaza, and predicts the violence will continue long after the withdrawal.

• A Syrian self-styled Fatah member infiltrated the Syrian-Israeli border and tried to shoot up the fuel tank at the border outpost. He was hoping to kidnap an Israeli soldier. He was wearing a big Palestinian flag t-shirt. Huh?

• Abbas is consolidating his security forces. Meanwhile, members of Abbas' own party (Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades) are continuing to threaten the government.

• This Lebanon Daily Star editorial says that the Syrian regime's chances of survival are grim.

• AL Qaeda was co-developing WMD in Iraq with individuals connected to the Iraqi regime as late as 2004 and disrupting their operations was a major part of the work of the Iraq Survey Group.

• There may be as few as 12 troops remaining of an Iranian deployment that once numbered 2000 in Lebanon.

• Cairo and the Muslim Brotherhood are in talks to allow the MB to stage a massive demonstration.

• Bahrain gets a Patriot Act.

• Yemen continues to hunt anti-government terrorists.

AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS

• The FBI stumbles upon Jihad in Memphis.

• Traditional military weapons and technology procurement is being bypassed.

• Despite all the billions thrown at it, airport security is no better, according to the House Aviation Subcommittee's chairman.

• The no-fly list has grown to 31000 people. Wow!

• A constitutional crisis grew in Ecuador as the President fired the Supreme Court and announced that he had the army's backing.

• Castro isn't wasting any sunshine-he's making plenty of hay out of the suspected terrorist that's applying for asylum in the US.

• Venezuela is getting a new reservist force, while the Venezuelan opposition melts away from the scene.

• Three brothers were found guilty in Texas of supporting Hamas.

• Illegal immigrants are hurting Marine training.

• Fraudulent documents allowed 57 illegal immigrants to work in risk-sensitive posts.

AFRICA

• The war's not over yet, but a donors' conference pledged over $4 billion for Sudanese reconstruction.

ASIA & AUSTRALIA

• Will the Philippines become the next base for al Qaeda?

• Bulgarian police believe the terrorist threat in country is growing.

• The EU will not lift the arms sales embargo to China this year.

• Three Chechens and five FSB were killed in a fierce battle in Grozny amid several other battles and deadly incidents in Chechnya.

• The Russians are going after another oil company.

• NATO denied grandiose Russian claims of an incipient joint theater missile-defense project.

• Two of Pakistan's airports went on high alert against specific threats.

• Musharraf had thousands of people arrested for wanting to attend planned rallies in celebration of the return of Benazir Bhutto's husband, who now leads an opposition party.

• Musharraf met Rumsfeld, who reaffirmed the US decision to sell Pakistan F-16s.

• Bush is visiting Georgia on May 10th, and the Georgians are hoping to get his support on relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

• Nepal's Maoist rebels ordered private schools to close. The schools tried to defy, but all the ones outside the capital did end up closing because the rebels set off bombs and convinced them they meant business. 64 of the Maoists were killed in clashes with the government. In cognitive dissonance news, King Gyanendra said security has increased since he dismantled the government.

• Pakistan caught two Algerian Al Qaeda members.

• Protests expressing dissatisfaction with corruption in the Mongolian government and society continue.

EUROPE

• Turkish forces kill 21 members of the Kurdish PKK.

• British officials believe an al Qaeda attack is in the works.

• Bulgaria's top cop says the Balkans are fertile ground for terrorists and more must be done to stop them.

• The UK won a case against the EC in the EU's highest court, which sued to try and force the UK to reveal how it was planning to dispose of nuclear waste at a defunct installation. The court sided with the UK because it said national security overrode environmental oversight.

• Solana lied: the EU did have very direct contact with Hamas and praised them as "freedom fighters" in a meeting with Ahmed Yassin.

• Germany launched a massive raid and searched 30 buildings in search of terrorists.

• The ricin is still missing in the UK. The dismal asylum system there failed in several ways, most glaringly in that no fingerprints were ever taken of Bourgass, nor could his fingerprints have been compared on the spot the second time he was apprehended.

• Eurabian Times looks at the web of links between Huarte and Benesmail, Galan, Almallah, el Morabit in relation to Spain's 3/11 Madrid attacks.

THE GLOBAL WAR

• The Al-Rijjal Brigade, a local Iraqi Islamist terrorist group, joins al Qaeda in Iraq.

• Senator Carl Levin released declassified documents that he says undercut prewar claims of Iraq-Al Qaeda links.

• The Taliban destroyed five trucks carrying oil and injured three drivers in Afghanistan, fresh on the heels of a report that they may begin fresh attacks out of desperation.

• This report at NewsMax says bin Laden escaped because the army allowed women to serve in a reconnaissance unit where they shouldn't have.

• Saudi Arabia killed the leader of Al Qaeda in the kingdom, as well as the suspected mastermind of the 3/11 Madrid attacks, among 15 people killed in clashes outside Riyadh.

• A Virginia hawala merchant is accused of illegally wiring millions of dollars to various sketchy countries.

• More and better spies are the key to returning US intelligence to potency, says this former CIA man. Or maybe it's Fewer and better spies?

We try to close on a lighter note if possible.

• The Washington Post really hates John Bolton's hair and mustache.

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