Al-Libbi: Still not #3, but no mistaken identity

Since the capture of Abu Faraj al-Libbi [May 4: Al Libbi's Capture | May 5: More on al-Libbi], there has been some commentary as to his exact status within al-Qaeda, with some European officials feeling the need to claim that the US confused Abu Faraj al-Libbi with Anas al-Liby, who is a member of the al-Qaeda ruling council.

No offense, but it's pretty insulting for these anonymous European officials to assert that our guys can't tell the difference between two high-ranking al-Qaeda operatives, do they think that all those Libyan terrorists look alike to the CIA? Abu Faraj has either psoriasis or leucoderma, while Anas suffers from neither. Moreover, we have Anas's fingerprints from his UK flat when it was raided and unless he has undergone reconstructive surgery he still has that comic book villain-esque scar on the left side of his face. Anas, I believe, is also somewhat shorter than Abu Faraj. I highlight all of these differences between the two men to try and illustrate just how patently absurd it is that the US would have mistaken the two men. There is also the small point that even if we had, it still wouldn't have led to mischaracterizations of al-Libbi as the al-Qaeda third-in-command, since Anas al-Liby, while an important member of the group's ruling council, is not himself that high up in the pecking order.

Interestingly, I also did some checking and it seems that Anas al-Liby was not captured in Sudan back in 2002 as previously reported. He may, however, have been part of the Libyan Fighting Islamic Group (LFIG) contingent who were expelled from Iran in March 2004. Noman Benotman (bin Othman), a former member of the LFIG ruling council, described the expulsion in an interview with the Jamestown Foundation's Mahan Abedin:

NB: As far as the Islamic Fighting Group is concerned, Zuwawi is a very important character. Most of the founding leaders and cadres of the Fighting Group were members of the secretive organization formed by Zuwawi in 1982.

NB: The Americans handed them over to Libyan authorities and currently they are in prison.

While Mr. Benotman refrains from noting that the IRGC was preparing to have the LFIG mount a terrorist campaign against Qadaffi until the mullahs got caught, Anas al-Liby may have been among those expelled and as a result may now be in Pakistan, so it makes at least some sense for the Europeans to think that he would be captured there.

I would also note that my point as far as Saif al-Adel being the real al-Qaeda #3 seems to be catching on:

"There may be some grade inflation going on," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior terrorism analyst with the independent Congressional Research Service, which advises U.S. lawmakers.

Katzman and other U.S. counter-terrorism authorities said another longtime Bin Laden associate, Saif Adel, for years had been considered Al Qaeda's No. 3 operative. But Adel, an Egyptian, is believed to be hiding in Iran and may not be currently involved in Al Qaeda's operations, Katzman said.

As Newsweek noted last summer:

But U.S. officials say they are concerned about the increasing evidence of possible Iranian connections to the 9/11 attacks, noting that as many as 10 top Al Qaeda operatives, including Saad bin Laden and another top bin Laden deputy, Saif Al-Adel, fled to Iran after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in the fall of 2001. The Al Qaeda operatives are believed to be in some sort of government custody, most likely house arrest. But the Iranian government has repeatedly rebuffed U.S. entreaties to turn over the Al Qaeda leaders, and some U.S. intelligence officials believe they may be still supervising terror operations—especially in Saudi Arabia—through the use of couriers.

I would also note that the BBC and MSNBC agree with me as to al-Adel's status, with MSNBC describing him as:

Al-Qaida’s No. 3, its military commander and chief military strategist, succeeding Mohamed Atef, who was killed in November 2001 and Khalid Sheik Mohamed, who was captured in March 2003. Served previously as al-Qaida’s security chief. As early as 1987, wanted to hijack a commercial aircraft and fly it into the Egyptian Parliament. Wrote an analysis for an al-Qaida website advising Iraqis on how to fight the U.S. Sees himself as a strategic thinker. Thought to be in Iran by some.

I don't want to demean the importance capturing al-Libbi, however, as the following has been gained as a result:

• We have his notebook containing contact information for both Pakistani jihadi figures and al-Qaeda supporters in the Pakistani military, intelligence, and police forces. This is a major intelligence coup in and of itself and I'd pay a great deal of money to find out whether or not Hamid Gul's name was on the second list ...

• Another major assassination attempt on General Musharraf has been thwarted.

I'd consider those two to be unqualified good results, regardless of al-Libbi's exact status in al-Qaeda. This was one of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's deputies who has been linked to terrorist attacks in both the United Kingdom as well as to a potential attack during the US presidential election or the inauguration. Taking him out of circulation is a victory for the war on terrorism, period.