During and after Operation Matador in northern Iraq, Bill Roggio and I have been joking lately about "al-Qaeda's 'hearts and minds' strategy." (see also: Fight Amonst Yourselves, Redux and The State of the Insurgency).
Whatever you may think of Allied abilities in this area, it's becoming very clear that our enemies' gift for pissing off the Iraqi population is extraordinary. Megan McArdle of Asymetrical Information adds to this threme with an interesting post chronicling just how extraordinary - their tactics are the exact opposite of conventional guerilla warfare's requirements. It isn't surprising, therefore, their army is experiencing recruiting problems.
Heretical Librarian adds some relevant links, then offers a thought: "the terrorists feel betrayed." Marginal Revolution chimes in with some thoughts on what the insurgency might be trying to do, drawing on game theory et. al... Dave Schuler of The Glittering Eye recommends it highly. His take on which of those goals fit the insurgency? "All of the above."