Rumors that al Qaeda’s Commander in Iraq Abu Musab al Zarqawi has been wounded prior to and during Operation Matador are beginning to resurface. When Zarqawi’s lap top was seized, it was believed he was taking painkillers while recovering "from a wound to his stomach." A week ago Zarqawi was reported to have visited a hospital in Ramadi with a serious stomach wound. The doctor on the scene was interviewed by US intelligence and reportedly a DNA test was requested.
Today an al Qaeda linked website has called for prays for Zarqawi (the purported speaker is Abu Maysarah al-Iraqi, the Director of al Qaeda in Iraq’s Media Wing and senior advisor to Zarqawi, certainly a man in the know) :
A statement on the website of the Al-Qa'eda Organistion for Holy War called on followers to pray for Zarqawi's recovery. The statement, posted by the group's media coordinator, Abu Maysarah al-Iraqi, said: "Let the near and far know that the injury of our leader is an honor, and a cause to close in on the enemies of God, and a reason to increase the attacks against them."
Athena from Terrorism Unveiled believes Zarqawi is indeed wounded (I concur) and postulates the release was issued to buck up the morale of the jihadis and their global supporters:
In my opinion, Zarqawi could actually be dying. After the initial report that Zarqawi had been wounded, a website released a letter praising Zarqawi, ending with, “By Allah, I love al-Zarqawi.”
It seems like it could be the case that Zarqawi was badly wounded in the al-Qaim assault near the Syrian border, was shuffled to Ramadi, (which is on the road to Baghdad, and part of the Sunni triangle) quickly left, and is now in serious condition with his wounds.
This most recent posting, could actually be an attempt to rally the Muslims, so if he does recover, the people can argue it was because of the prayers of the Muslim people.
Time will tell whether Zarqawi is indeed dead, and we are best off waiting for confirmation before dancing on his grave. Zarqawi is al Qaeda’s most dangerous operator. He has a long history, including some plots on a incredible scale. He is a rising star in al Qaeda, and a senior member; his demise would be a strategic victory for the Coalition and the Iraqi people. While al Qaeda stresses the organization and cause over the value of the individual, ruthless and competent operatives and leaders such as Zarqawi are a valuable asset and are difficult to replace.
Stomach wounds are supposed to be painful and long-lasting. I hope as he takes the time to decide whether or not he is going to die, that Mr. Zarqawi does not have any 21st Century medications to ease his pain, that he howls and writhes and whimpers in his agony, and that those around him see him as a superman brought low every bit as much as the pictures of Saddam in his white underwear also show a superman stripped of his cape.
THIS is what it is to be both a Muslim and a martyr.
Is the victory of his death strategic or tactical? I ask this question as part of the hearts and mind strategy. His tactics are clearly dividing the terrorists from the Iraqi(Sunni) people. If he dies does the leadership in IRAQ go to the al-Queda side or the Sunni side(FRE)? What does it portend by where the leadership falls?
I would say that it is a strategic win, as well as the obvious tactical win that caused the injury. While he might be straining relations with the non-Iraqi portion of al-Qaeda, his death will leave a larger void in the Iraqi portion and further strain al-Qaeda to shore up what they have invested so much in.
As to the hearts and minds, it should have a positive impact in assuring the less fanatical that victory and peace will come.
How come my gut keeps telling me it's just a set-up to try to throw a little of the intense heat off of his back. Just a little relaxation on the part of his trackers could allow him to slip the ever-closing noose.
If he is seriously wounded, I doubt that he has been an effective leader of the insurgency. Most insurgency leadership duties are probably being handled by someone else. The insurgency has probably already filled the void left by an incapacitated Zarqawi. His death will still be a morale boost for the Iraqi people.
"Is the victory of his death strategic or tactical? I ask this question as part of the hearts and mind strategy. "
Thats the million dollar question. It entirely depends on exactly how involved he actually is in the insurgency. I've got a gut feeling he is less responsible than we think, and that he simply takes credit every time something blows up. If that is the case it will be a tactical victory, but surely not a strategic defeat. Definately a moral victory which is important.
While I hope that the reports are true--and I hope that he dies off quick--I just keep wondering how much of the information you could possibly trust.
I am of the mind he is important to al Qaeda in Iraq. He has been given full support by bin Laden, his stature in the global organization has increased. From an operational standpoint, much of the strategy and tactics appear to be his, he has numerous contacts in the region, established networks in Jordan and Europe, etc. Remember that terrorist organizations are very secretive and rely heavily on trust. Zarqawi has spent years building his networks and these are not easily handed over to an underling. This doesn't mean al Qaeda in Iraq with wither on the vine, but that it will be a little harder for his successor to manage the org. I believe he is their commander in Iraq in every sense of the word - he directs the overall operation.
And of course, the most important issue: does said mash note (which appears to have vanished) violate al-Qaeda's well known "don't tell, or we'll drop a wall on you" policy?
Enquiring minds want to know...
There are some who believe Zarqawi's death will allow some Sunni killers to switch sides and give up fighting. That will not happen until all Wahhabi's are exterminated, but Zarqawi's death is a small step in the right direction.
I don't.
I hope that he dies slowly, very very slowly, suffering all of the torment and pain that this mortal world has to offer.
Fortunately (should the rumors be true, something of which I'm highly skeptical), gut shots have a way of delivering just that.
A nice, perforated gut with an accompanying case of peritonitis and there ought to be a lot of very deserved and satisfying pain in that little maggot's future.
Cut ...
From Dr. Sanity
al Zarqawi is going to become one of Satan's 72 virgins.
The fact that he's a big name means that whoever replaces him will be a smaller operator, of lesser stature, and that's a victory for us.
If Zarqawi is just a front for the Baathists then there can be a peacedeal with the Shiite when he "dies". Expect Chirac in Baghdad next year selling weapons and machinery
Ah, it is so sweet to contemplate the possibility that Zarqawi has been gut shot and is slowly succumbing to infection...truly a well deserved demise. it would probably be impossible to determine which GI or Marine fired the shot, but all glory to our forces.
Zarqawi appears to be a fighting commander -- or at least poses as one. He is clearly a hands on manager. This persona of a fighting leader could give him the credentials to take bin Laden's place. And for that reason alone, he death would be a strategic victory of the first order.
Why would Al-Queda in Iraq publish this at this time unless 1. They think that he will survive his wounds and that they will be able to exploit that. 2. They know that DNA testing proved that the American's know that it was truely him that was treated in Ramadi.
A plausable explanation I heard was that he got treatment at a hospital in Ramadi which was later confirmed by DNA testing on pieces he left behind.
Thus there would be a record of his wound. And his condition when he left the hospital.
These have to be desperate times for the jihadis.
Some say this may be a ploy by AQ and Zarqawi to divert attention away from the effort to capture or kill him.
I think the opposite would be true. News like this would be like sharks smelling blood, and lions closing in for the kill on sick and injured herd animals.
My only hope is that we can confirm his death when it happens and recover his worthless body, so that EVERYONE knows his fate - and thus the ultimate fate of all other would-be, butchering jihadists.
Leaddog--
The Sunni former regime elements evidently despise the foreign terrorists. They are each fighting for their own reasons (read this). It is therefore unlikely a Zarqawi death would end their terrorist activity. Nonetheless, it could discombobulate the foreign jihadi movement further, which might have the side benefit of making the FREs despondent.
No bad can come out of his death.
Reports are coming in now from overseas news orgs that a Islamic website claims that Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi has fled to an unidentified “neighbouring country” with two Arab doctors treating him for gunshot wounds to his lung. Today’s statement said al-Zarqawi “was secretly smuggled to a neighbouring country a few days ago in a complicated and organised operation.” It did not identify the country.
It said al-Zarqawi was in “stable condition now” after he incurred a “bullet wound which penetrated his right lung.”
#19 That would be glory? Zarqawi was an absolute and total nobody and became famous by being a nut. When they get old they often (always) succome to sin but that doesn't happen when they die you. (same happens to rockstars who die young, they are no more famous than their contempories that still live) His death would attrack more people to his cause not less
Gosh...I hope it's something serious!
Why would Al-Queda in Iraq publish this at this time
To prepare supporters for pro-Zarqawi demonstrations upon his death.
His death would attrack more people to his cause not less
Let's see whether Iraqis take to the street to condemn or commend the deceased.
#22 "His death would attrack more people to his cause not less"
Ummm ... OK. So, what would you suggest? That we, you know, like, just "capture" him? Hold him prisoner? Or just ignore him and hope he goes away?
I doubt he's just going to go away and stop his murderous rampage, even if we ask him "pretty please, with sugar on top?"
And personally, I think even IF we captured him somehow (which I doubt would be possible - he'll probably go down fighting like Uday and Qusay), what do we do? Hold him prisoner, like Milosovic or Saddam or any of the other Gitmo detainees? To simply become another circus show trial? Or a rallying point for other crazy jihadists to rally to, or for whom they will kidnap or capture other innocents to be used as bargaining chips for his release?
Sometimes you're faced with NO "good" options, just the lesser of several worse choices. Personally, I think the benefits of Zarqawi's death outnumber the benefits of his continued existence.
He's like a queen bee or a queen ant. If you kill him, his hive or colony dies, too. Allow him to live, and he just spawns another hive or colony.
Not Iraqi, other arabs. Iraqi's follow other insurgent leaders.
There are other options but they are all worse for the USA than this. It is quite simple to proof that he isn't behind most attacks but that would mean that the USA is lying and that an Iraq without US troops would most likely be quieter and less of a danger to the West