Winds of Change.NET's Latin America briefings have described some of the natural gas controversies in that country. Publius Pundit has done a great job covering recent unrest there (most recently, in "Roadblocks and Dynamite"). Jack Wheeler, meanwhile, explained the connection to his subscribers almost 2 months ago...
Bye-Bye Bolivia?
by Dr. Jack Wheeler
To The Point News Thursday, April 7, 2005
Dr. Jack Wheeler runs To The Point News, described as "An Oasis for Rational Conservatives." Back in April 2005, Wheeler said serious trouble was coming to Bolivia - and recent events show he was on to something. We didn't get the scoop as fast as his subscribers, but we've republished it now with permission.
This map of Bolivia may be about to become obsolete:
For some time now, a lot of Bolivians have been conducting a "Gas War," blocking roads, demonstrating in cities like El Alto and Cochabamba to prevent the export of Bolivian natural gas by foreign companies. The fellow coordinating the protests is Evo Morales, a Marxist protégé of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, the leader of the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) Party, and also the leader of coca leaf growers (the stuff that's made into cocaine). The protests brought down the presidency of Gonzalo Sanchez do Lozada in October 2003 and continue to escalate: 820 in the last 17 months. The current government of Sanchez's successor Carlos Mesa in teetering.
There's just one problem for Morales and Chavez. The Bolivians who are protesting are not the Bolivians who live where the gas is. Bolivia is about to split in two. A topographical depiction of Bolivia suggests why:
Bolivia has gigantic reserves of natural gas, over 50 trillion cubic feet proven so far and counting. Foreign oil companies have invested over $3.5 billion in developing its fields, particularly Petrobras in Brazil. A 2,000-mile long pipeline from Bolivia supplies 60% of Brazil's gas consumption. Argentina gets 200,000 cubic yards of Bolivian gas a day.
All of these reserves are in the lowlands of the east, known as the "Media Luna" or Half-Moon. The people who live in the lowland states of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Beni are predominantly Europeans (e.g., Spanish, Italian, German extraction). These states, with only 20% of Bolivia's population (total 8.8 million) account for all of Bolivia's gas production, and well over half of the country's manufacturing and agriculture.
The other 80% live in the highlands of the Andes mountains, in the Altiplano or Andean valleys such as the Yungas and Cochabamba – and they are predominantly Indian, mostly Quechua or Aymara. Led by Evo Morales, a majority of them are demanding the seizure and nationalization of the gas reserves and production facilities in the lowlands. His MAS Party is being financed by Hugo Chavez, who sees himself as Fidel Castro's intellectual heir and is attempting to Marxist-revolutionize all of South America.
This does not sit well with the prosperous and anti-Marxist Cruceños (the folks in Santa Cruz, the lowlands' center), who have come to despise the ruling elite in the capital city of La Paz (and who are thus called Paceños), so much so that they have forced President Mesa to hold a referendum in June, whereby the Cruceños get to vote for their autonomy from the national government.
It also does not sit well with the leaders of Bolivia's neighbors, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. Even though they are leftists themselves, they are sick and tired of Chavez's antics and his growing threat to their economies. Thus it was no coincidence that shortly after Mesa announced the autonomy referendum last month, Donald Rumsfeld flew to Buenos Aires to confer with Argentina's Defense Minister Jose Pampuro on March 22, and one week later Argentine Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa flew to Washington to meet Condoleezza Rice.
The focus was how to coordinate an anti-Chavez strategy, given Chavez's recent massive arms purchases from Russia and Spain. A key item on the agendas was how to handle the impending disintegration of Bolivia, and protecting Argentina and Brazil's gas supplies, which necessitates supporting the Cruceños.
Autonomy for Santa Cruz and the other lowland states is an intermediate step to full independence, recognized by (and eventually autonomously absorbed into) Argentina and Brazil. Evo Morales and the Paceños will be stuck up there by their lonesomes in the Andes.
Since its inception, Bolivia has been a failed state. Prior to independence in 1825, it was called Upper Peru. Since 1825, it has experienced over 200 – yes, two hundred – revolutions, coups, and counter-coups. That's more than one government a year for the last 180 years! It became landlocked by losing a war (the War of the Pacific, 1879-1883) with Chile, which annexed Bolivia's entire Antofagasta coastline, and still more territory in a disastrous war (the Chaco War, 1933-1935) with Paraguay. Now it's about to be tossed into history's dust-bin. After Argentina and Brazil make their territorial deal with the Media Luna, probably Peru will end up annexing the rest.
It is cosmically ironic that an anti-Marxist pro-freedom strategy against Fidel Castro's protégés is being launched in Santa Cruz, Bolivia – for that is where Castro's most famous agent and Marxist icon Ché Guevara tried to start his Communist revolution – and where it ended on October 9, 1967. Today, there are no more pro-America, pro-freedom, and anti-Marxist folks in all South America than those in Santa Cruz. Let us wish the Cruceños well.
(Oh, what about Bolivia's Army – won't it prevent Santa Cruz from going independent by military force? Nope, the officer corps is dominated by Cruceños. Morales and Chavez are out of luck again.)
Visit To the Point News for more articles like this!
JUNE 8/05 UPDATE: As The Top Of The World Turns has a translation of Augusto Nunes account in Rio de Janeiro's Jornal do Brasil, one of Brasil's major papers. It essentially echoes the point made here, with some additional history and some local regional perspective.
Will this be just as succesfull as the coup against Chavez?
ps. They would get West Bolivia. I also asume without debt which wouldn't be a bad deal. There is a reason Morales doesn't want the gas money. I think he and his people doesn't believe that they will get any of it and i don't think that they are wrong if you look at what happened in other oil countries
Given the high-stakes interests of Bolivia's powerful (in regional terms, anyway) neighbours, if I had to make a prediction I'd say that it's likely to be a lot more successful if this goes the insurrection/ partition route.
And yes, they really should have shot Chavez dead when they had a chance. If the CIA was really involved in that, someone deserves to be fired for incompetence. Do we have to contract this stuff out to the KGB/FSB in order to get any service around here, or what?
Am I living in a hole in the ground? This is big stuff and it is the first I have heard about it.
It is false to say that the majority of Cruceños are predominatly Europeans. Santa Cruz has grown exponentially due to internal migration mainly from the Occident of the country. While it is true that as time goes on they identify themselves as Cruceños/Cambas, their roots are mestizo with Aymara or Quechua roots. Yes, the visible leaders of the civic committes are largely Europeans in origin.
Could we stop with the labels of Marxist, Communist, Chavista and look at this issue for what it is? It is a struggle for power by an economically relevant group (Santa Cruz) and political exclusion where a majority population who happen to be indigenous has not seen the current political and economic model work for them. Until the autonomy push is articulated as something that would benefit the entire country and help reduce poverty, then with good reason many Bolivians will remain skeptical.
That being said, the tactics that are being used take away from the real issues and continue to divide the country by causing economic obstacles. It is not just Santa Cruz who think that blockades and marches are not constructive towards solving the country's problems.
eduardo: It is not just Santa Cruz who think that blockades and marches are not constructive towards solving the country's problems.
Yes, Chavez holds a very similar opinion. Especially since his country's problem is him.
That hasn't affected his love affair with the road-blocking Morales, though. Not after Morales found the time to stage a grand support rally for Chavez in Caracas, flying in "cocaine growers" from Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador. What a party that must have been.
As for "Marxist" labels, I guess Marxism doesn't mean much when you're lying on a private beach in Caracas with an unlimited supply of cocaine. Che Guevara, eat your heart out.
I wish that Chavez was the problem in Venezuela. It is more the large difference in wealth between the rich and poor which is not what you would expect from a well run oil economy.
"And yes, they really should have shot Chavez dead when they had a chance."
Let me get this straight. Is the author of these words the same person who justifies the deaths of thousands if required for the export of democracy?
Chavez has been elected by a vote of the people twice and yet shooting him is desireable and acceptable.
I smell the stink of hypocrisy. Please explain how these words can reconciled with a belief in democracy.
Please explain how these words can reconciled with a belief in democracy.
Because getting elected doesn't necessarily make you a democrat. See Hitler. And see why Hugo Chavez is Dictator of the Month of June 2005
Of course, being elected does not make you a democrat. If Chavez suspends elections or declares himself dictator for life then violent response is appropriate. But advocating asassination of a leader because you dislike his politics is the opposite of democracy.
Killing an elected leader definitely makes the killer or his advocate something other than a democrat. Nothing in the definition below about killing elected leaders. Personally I am not convinced of Bush's commitment to democracy, so by your logic am I justified in eliminating him?
de·moc·ra·cy ( P ) Pronunciation Key (d-mkr-s)
n. pl. de·moc·ra·cies
1.Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
2.A political or social unit that has such a government.
3.The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
4.Majority rule.
5.The principles of social equality and respect for the individual within a community.
Chavez was elected with margins MUCH higher than GWB.
"Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly Sunday to re-elect President Hugo Chavez -- giving the left-leaning nationalist a fresh six year term.
With 77 percent of the votes counted late Sunday, Chavez had 59 percent, while his nearest challenger, former Zulia state Gov. Francisco Arias Cardenas, received 37 percent."
His recall was also defeated with margins much higher than GWB's "mandate".
"Stunned opposition leaders, who have fought for years to oust Chavez, claimed fraud after results announced Monday by election officials showed nearly 60 percent of voters had said "no" to the question of whether he should leave office immediately.
But former President Jimmy Carter and the Organization of American States endorsed the results of Sunday's vote, which saw one of the biggest turnouts in Venezuela's history, and urged everybody to accept the outcome.
"Now it's the responsibility of all Venezuelans to accept the results and work together for the future," Carter said.
Chavez's victory underscored the resilience of a leftist firebrand who has bluntly challenged "imperialist" U.S. foreign policies and cozied up to Cuban President Fidel Castro (news - web sites).
There are some very good online dictionaries for anyone concerned with the meaning of words.
For example,
"dic·ta·tor ( P ) Pronunciation Key (dkttr, dk-t-)
n.
1.An absolute ruler.
2.A tyrant; a despot."
Clearly, Chavez does not fit the first definition, since despite his efforts to pack the courts (reminds me of somebody), both the courts and the legislature still exist along with elections local and national, making his rule far less than "absolute".
While distributing oil revenues to the poor may upset conservative sensibilities, it by no means qualifies Chavez as a tyrant or a despot. Indeed the continued existence of an active Venezuelan opposition with millions of members would indicate that he is neither a tyrant or a despot.
So, the publishers of Dictator Of The Month might want to spend some time with a dictionary.
Clearly, some of GWB's closest allies, such as Islam Karimov and Musharaff (both unelected) would fit the definition of dictator more exactly.
Another useful definition is:
Hypocrisy-
The practice of professing beliefs, feelings, or virtues that one does not hold or possess; falseness.
The election was rigged, he isn't a democrat, just more of the same crypto-fascist typers we've seen too much of down there, albeit with a different line of patter than usual. And worse - an interest in exporting this model.
I repeat: they should have shot him.
The election was rigged
proof of that or is it the same type of "proof" that shows Bush didn't win the presidency.
Joe,
Your post saddens and disappoints me. This blog posts wisdom from Christian, Jewish, and Sufi traditions.
None of those spiritual traditions condones murder. In contrast, they warn about the consequences of violence, while acknowledging the right of self-defense, often including some concept of just war.
Even if (in contrast to OAS reports) the elections were fraudulent (noting that you have produced no evidence to that effect), advocates of murder and assasination should remember a religous precept.
The Golden Rule, "Do as you would be done by".
Assasinations and dirty tricks have a way of boomeranging back on the perpetrators (it's called blowback). Assuming assasination attempts on Chavez were successful, how could you guarantee that the results would not be years of bloody civil war, as Colombia experienced in the decade of "La Violencia" after Gaitan's assasination, with over 40,000 deaths? Colombia's civil war continues to this day.
RE: #13:
A:
Go read up on how the US Government works and how national presidental elections are run. The election is NOT based on the popular vote. Its run more like 50 individual state elections. Whoever wins the most states (electoral college), wins. That's how its been for a long while now. The Dems/Libs never complained about it until they didn't get their way.
Bush won, fair and square.
J
This is big stuff and it is the first I have heard about it
I posted about the Spanish arms sales to Chavez here and in the other posts linked there.
These sales, and the sales by Russia, are enormously destabilizing in south America, given that they are coupled by a very visible passing of the baton from Castro to Chavez, with the latter increasingly taking very aggressive stances v. the US. Chavez is openly creating and arming militias outside of the military command structure and some of those militias include people wanted in e.g. Columbia for drug trade-related violence.
Add to this reported emerging alliances between the Maoist Shining Path and jihadi groups camped in the hidden triangle area where Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina border one another. Add in also the missing 20,000 or so Venezuelan passport blanks that Chavez' ministers admit they "lost" a few years ago.
Now add in Chavez demanding that the US release to HIM the Cuban pilot accused of hijacking a plane. The basis for that demand is that he was a resident in Venezuela in those same camps that are home to Columbian drug dealers for a while and Chavez wants a very visible trial of him to use against the US. Remember too the link between IRA training and even participation with the cocaine cartels in Columbia and you get ...
a dangerous and increasingly unstable situation.
This is the context for the Chavez-encouraged blockade of gas exports in Bolivia, a country where (as has been pointed out) there are few stable governmental traditions and controls.
#15 You may have noticed the " " around proof.
#16 You forget the Brazilian arms sale. Atleast they were real military weapons (jets) and not infantry stuff but that would make your argument a little weaker as Brazil is one of Venezuela's neighbours.
Cuban pilot accused of hijacking a plane
You mean convicted of blowing up a civilian airplan or is this somebody else?
Why on earth would Peru annex West Bolivia, when it has such a troublesome population? Why not leave it as a smaller failed state, and maybe send in some troops to "restore order" if the failure threatens to spread across the border?
That's one of the things I dislike about analyses of this type - some parts of it make much sense, but others make some pretty incredible leaps.
I heard Angelo Codevilla predicting, in the early 1980s, that Bolivia would cease to exist within 20 years. It's still there, with many of the same problems it had 20 years ago, and some new ones. Why is it still here?
Why do you assume it would be a failed state? It has everything needed to be a succesfull state (a lot of people and the only way to make money is working)
You would think that after years of CIA funded coups... 1954 Guatemala, 1953 Iran, 1973 Chile, 2002 Venezuela (just to name a few), and the subsequent instalation of brutal dictators (The Shaw, Pinochet, Sadaam...ect.) that simple minded Americans would stop claiming that the U.S. is the protector of the free world.
It will be a glorious day when the U.S. (and it's citizens) begin to defend some of the less fortunate peoples of this earth and their desires to benefit from their country's wealth. We have to stop making decisions based solely on the almighty buck. Until then, country's will continue to look to organizations, like the ones mentioned in #16, for support. They will see us as the representatives of United Fruit Company, British Petroleum, or any number of other multi-million dollar conglomerates that we historically represent through financial and military aid.
P.S. When do we become energy self-sufficient? After all... that is what this is all about.
Mick
It might be good for you to remember (or learn?) that Chavez is a coup monger himself and that he certainly did not need the US in 1992 when socres were killed.
The 2002 coup in Venezuela was certainly wished for by the US but so far NO DIRECT evidence of US intervention has been offered. Only the stridency of Chavez on that respect and no proof advanced after 3 years except for some unsubstantiated gossip. Intention of sin is not proof of sin.
I will urge you to look a little bit more closely to Chavez hot air talk.
Interesting analysis. I would not be so quick in separating racially Santa Cruz from the rest of the country. However the ideological separation likely cuts across racial lines. Santa Cruz is pioneer country and whether Aymara or Italian, it is people that want to actively improve their lives on their own terms.
All I smell is FEAR!!!! to C-H-A-V-E-Z the probably future new President of the Gran Colombia (Great Colombia) which will include five countries and people of all races "Specially Indians Grrrr..", and unless the U.S. Goverment(President Bush) does not go to Venezuela and starts another war like in Irak and tries to find something hiden like "Any kind of Weapons of Mass or any Destruction" or "Cocaine" wich mean C-H-A-V-E-Z can use to get us all high and tell us what to do, be prepare for the new power of the XXI Century. After all with the oil in Venezuela and all the gas in Bolivia he has an open check book too buy anithing he wants...., yes including weapons B-E-A-W-A-R-E.........to be continued.
Venezuela will be better off with socialism than it would with capitalism. The majority of the country agrees. But Venezuela will not be truely socialist until Chavez steps down from power and lets the workers step in.