Will this be just as succesfull as the coup against Chavez?

ps. They would get West Bolivia. I also asume without debt which wouldn't be a bad deal. There is a reason Morales doesn't want the gas money. I think he and his people doesn't believe that they will get any of it and i don't think that they are wrong if you look at what happened in other oil countries

Given the high-stakes interests of Bolivia's powerful (in regional terms, anyway) neighbours, if I had to make a prediction I'd say that it's likely to be a lot more successful if this goes the insurrection/ partition route.

And yes, they really should have shot Chavez dead when they had a chance. If the CIA was really involved in that, someone deserves to be fired for incompetence. Do we have to contract this stuff out to the KGB/FSB in order to get any service around here, or what?

Am I living in a hole in the ground? This is big stuff and it is the first I have heard about it.

It is false to say that the majority of Cruceños are predominatly Europeans. Santa Cruz has grown exponentially due to internal migration mainly from the Occident of the country. While it is true that as time goes on they identify themselves as Cruceños/Cambas, their roots are mestizo with Aymara or Quechua roots. Yes, the visible leaders of the civic committes are largely Europeans in origin.

Could we stop with the labels of Marxist, Communist, Chavista and look at this issue for what it is? It is a struggle for power by an economically relevant group (Santa Cruz) and political exclusion where a majority population who happen to be indigenous has not seen the current political and economic model work for them. Until the autonomy push is articulated as something that would benefit the entire country and help reduce poverty, then with good reason many Bolivians will remain skeptical.

That being said, the tactics that are being used take away from the real issues and continue to divide the country by causing economic obstacles. It is not just Santa Cruz who think that blockades and marches are not constructive towards solving the country's problems.

eduardo: It is not just Santa Cruz who think that blockades and marches are not constructive towards solving the country's problems.

Yes, Chavez holds a very similar opinion. Especially since his country's problem is him.

That hasn't affected his love affair with the road-blocking Morales, though. Not after Morales found the time to stage a grand support rally for Chavez in Caracas, flying in "cocaine growers" from Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador. What a party that must have been.

As for "Marxist" labels, I guess Marxism doesn't mean much when you're lying on a private beach in Caracas with an unlimited supply of cocaine. Che Guevara, eat your heart out.

I wish that Chavez was the problem in Venezuela. It is more the large difference in wealth between the rich and poor which is not what you would expect from a well run oil economy.

I wish that Chavez was the problem in Venezuela.

"And yes, they really should have shot Chavez dead when they had a chance."

Let me get this straight. Is the author of these words the same person who justifies the deaths of thousands if required for the export of democracy?
Chavez has been elected by a vote of the people twice and yet shooting him is desireable and acceptable.

I smell the stink of hypocrisy. Please explain how these words can reconciled with a belief in democracy.

Please explain how these words can reconciled with a belief in democracy.

Because getting elected doesn't necessarily make you a democrat. See Hitler. And see why Hugo Chavez is Dictator of the Month of June 2005

Of course, being elected does not make you a democrat. If Chavez suspends elections or declares himself dictator for life then violent response is appropriate. But advocating asassination of a leader because you dislike his politics is the opposite of democracy.

Killing an elected leader definitely makes the killer or his advocate something other than a democrat. Nothing in the definition below about killing elected leaders. Personally I am not convinced of Bush's commitment to democracy, so by your logic am I justified in eliminating him?

de·moc·ra·cy ( P ) Pronunciation Key (d-mkr-s)
n. pl. de·moc·ra·cies
1.Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
2.A political or social unit that has such a government.
3.The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
4.Majority rule.
5.The principles of social equality and respect for the individual within a community.

Chavez was elected with margins MUCH higher than GWB.
"Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly Sunday to re-elect President Hugo Chavez -- giving the left-leaning nationalist a fresh six year term.

With 77 percent of the votes counted late Sunday, Chavez had 59 percent, while his nearest challenger, former Zulia state Gov. Francisco Arias Cardenas, received 37 percent."

His recall was also defeated with margins much higher than GWB's "mandate".

"Stunned opposition leaders, who have fought for years to oust Chavez, claimed fraud after results announced Monday by election officials showed nearly 60 percent of voters had said "no" to the question of whether he should leave office immediately.
But former President Jimmy Carter and the Organization of American States endorsed the results of Sunday's vote, which saw one of the biggest turnouts in Venezuela's history, and urged everybody to accept the outcome.
"Now it's the responsibility of all Venezuelans to accept the results and work together for the future," Carter said.
Chavez's victory underscored the resilience of a leftist firebrand who has bluntly challenged "imperialist" U.S. foreign policies and cozied up to Cuban President Fidel Castro (news - web sites).

There are some very good online dictionaries for anyone concerned with the meaning of words.
For example,
"dic·ta·tor ( P ) Pronunciation Key (dkttr, dk-t-)
n.
1.An absolute ruler.
2.A tyrant; a despot."

Clearly, Chavez does not fit the first definition, since despite his efforts to pack the courts (reminds me of somebody), both the courts and the legislature still exist along with elections local and national, making his rule far less than "absolute".
While distributing oil revenues to the poor may upset conservative sensibilities, it by no means qualifies Chavez as a tyrant or a despot. Indeed the continued existence of an active Venezuelan opposition with millions of members would indicate that he is neither a tyrant or a despot.

So, the publishers of Dictator Of The Month might want to spend some time with a dictionary.

Clearly, some of GWB's closest allies, such as Islam Karimov and Musharaff (both unelected) would fit the definition of dictator more exactly.
Another useful definition is:
Hypocrisy-
The practice of professing beliefs, feelings, or virtues that one does not hold or possess; falseness.

The election was rigged, he isn't a democrat, just more of the same crypto-fascist typers we've seen too much of down there, albeit with a different line of patter than usual. And worse - an interest in exporting this model.

I repeat: they should have shot him.

The election was rigged

proof of that or is it the same type of "proof" that shows Bush didn't win the presidency.

Joe,
Your post saddens and disappoints me. This blog posts wisdom from Christian, Jewish, and Sufi traditions.

None of those spiritual traditions condones murder. In contrast, they warn about the consequences of violence, while acknowledging the right of self-defense, often including some concept of just war.

Even if (in contrast to OAS reports) the elections were fraudulent (noting that you have produced no evidence to that effect), advocates of murder and assasination should remember a religous precept.

The Golden Rule, "Do as you would be done by".

Assasinations and dirty tricks have a way of boomeranging back on the perpetrators (it's called blowback). Assuming assasination attempts on Chavez were successful, how could you guarantee that the results would not be years of bloody civil war, as Colombia experienced in the decade of "La Violencia" after Gaitan's assasination, with over 40,000 deaths? Colombia's civil war continues to this day.

RE: #13:

A:

Go read up on how the US Government works and how national presidental elections are run. The election is NOT based on the popular vote. Its run more like 50 individual state elections. Whoever wins the most states (electoral college), wins. That's how its been for a long while now. The Dems/Libs never complained about it until they didn't get their way.

Bush won, fair and square.

J

This is big stuff and it is the first I have heard about it

I posted about the Spanish arms sales to Chavez here and in the other posts linked there.

These sales, and the sales by Russia, are enormously destabilizing in south America, given that they are coupled by a very visible passing of the baton from Castro to Chavez, with the latter increasingly taking very aggressive stances v. the US. Chavez is openly creating and arming militias outside of the military command structure and some of those militias include people wanted in e.g. Columbia for drug trade-related violence.

Add to this reported emerging alliances between the Maoist Shining Path and jihadi groups camped in the hidden triangle area where Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina border one another. Add in also the missing 20,000 or so Venezuelan passport blanks that Chavez' ministers admit they "lost" a few years ago.

Now add in Chavez demanding that the US release to HIM the Cuban pilot accused of hijacking a plane. The basis for that demand is that he was a resident in Venezuela in those same camps that are home to Columbian drug dealers for a while and Chavez wants a very visible trial of him to use against the US. Remember too the link between IRA training and even participation with the cocaine cartels in Columbia and you get ...

a dangerous and increasingly unstable situation.

This is the context for the Chavez-encouraged blockade of gas exports in Bolivia, a country where (as has been pointed out) there are few stable governmental traditions and controls.

#15 You may have noticed the " " around proof.

#16 You forget the Brazilian arms sale. Atleast they were real military weapons (jets) and not infantry stuff but that would make your argument a little weaker as Brazil is one of Venezuela's neighbours.

Cuban pilot accused of hijacking a plane

You mean convicted of blowing up a civilian airplan or is this somebody else?

Why on earth would Peru annex West Bolivia, when it has such a troublesome population? Why not leave it as a smaller failed state, and maybe send in some troops to "restore order" if the failure threatens to spread across the border?

That's one of the things I dislike about analyses of this type - some parts of it make much sense, but others make some pretty incredible leaps.

I heard Angelo Codevilla predicting, in the early 1980s, that Bolivia would cease to exist within 20 years. It's still there, with many of the same problems it had 20 years ago, and some new ones. Why is it still here?

Why do you assume it would be a failed state? It has everything needed to be a succesfull state (a lot of people and the only way to make money is working)

You would think that after years of CIA funded coups... 1954 Guatemala, 1953 Iran, 1973 Chile, 2002 Venezuela (just to name a few), and the subsequent instalation of brutal dictators (The Shaw, Pinochet, Sadaam...ect.) that simple minded Americans would stop claiming that the U.S. is the protector of the free world.

It will be a glorious day when the U.S. (and it's citizens) begin to defend some of the less fortunate peoples of this earth and their desires to benefit from their country's wealth. We have to stop making decisions based solely on the almighty buck. Until then, country's will continue to look to organizations, like the ones mentioned in #16, for support. They will see us as the representatives of United Fruit Company, British Petroleum, or any number of other multi-million dollar conglomerates that we historically represent through financial and military aid.

P.S. When do we become energy self-sufficient? After all... that is what this is all about.

Mick

It might be good for you to remember (or learn?) that Chavez is a coup monger himself and that he certainly did not need the US in 1992 when socres were killed.

The 2002 coup in Venezuela was certainly wished for by the US but so far NO DIRECT evidence of US intervention has been offered. Only the stridency of Chavez on that respect and no proof advanced after 3 years except for some unsubstantiated gossip. Intention of sin is not proof of sin.

I will urge you to look a little bit more closely to Chavez hot air talk.

Interesting analysis. I would not be so quick in separating racially Santa Cruz from the rest of the country. However the ideological separation likely cuts across racial lines. Santa Cruz is pioneer country and whether Aymara or Italian, it is people that want to actively improve their lives on their own terms.

All I smell is FEAR!!!! to C-H-A-V-E-Z the probably future new President of the Gran Colombia (Great Colombia) which will include five countries and people of all races "Specially Indians Grrrr..", and unless the U.S. Goverment(President Bush) does not go to Venezuela and starts another war like in Irak and tries to find something hiden like "Any kind of Weapons of Mass or any Destruction" or "Cocaine" wich mean C-H-A-V-E-Z can use to get us all high and tell us what to do, be prepare for the new power of the XXI Century. After all with the oil in Venezuela and all the gas in Bolivia he has an open check book too buy anithing he wants...., yes including weapons B-E-A-W-A-R-E.........to be continued.

Venezuela will be better off with socialism than it would with capitalism. The majority of the country agrees. But Venezuela will not be truely socialist until Chavez steps down from power and lets the workers step in.