Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-06-10

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on South Asia, courtesy of Robi Sen and Nitin Pai of The Acorn.

THE PEACE PROCESS - ASYMMETRIC CONFIDENCE BUILDING?

• Leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), a motley group of Kashmiri-separatists made their way to meet their makers (pun unintended) in Islamabad. But not before both Pakistan and the Hurriyat violated the terms of the understanding that made the bus service possible.

• Some Kashmiri separatists said things that made the Pakistani government cringe.

• Bilateral talks between India and Pakistan on the hydro-electric projects India is building in Kashmir were inconclusive.

• India's energetic minister for petroleum proceeded to reach an agreement with Pakistan on building a natural-gas pipeline that will deliver natural gas from Iran (and potentially Turkmenistan) to India. While the Indian government has taken the line that this is a pipeline of peace, this is not necessarily the best thing India could do to ensure its own security.

Other topics include: India - at 60% governance; Pakistan - the more they stay the same; Bangladesh - hanging on; Sri Lanka & Nepal - life in the times of (civil) war.

INDIA - AT 60% GOVERNANCE

• Two leading politicians courted controversy. Prakash Karat, leader of India's Communist party, came in for criticism after meeting a leader of Nepal's Maoist insurgents. L K Advani, leader of India's opposition BJP, resigned after returning from a trip to Pakistan, where he had made some very uncharacteristic (and unnecessary) comments about Pakistan's founding father. He received both bouquets and brickbats.

• Two bombs exploded at a New Delhi cinema during the screening of a movie that was touted as being offensive to the Sikh religion. Babbar Khalsa, a Sikh terrorist organisation, whose leaders operate from Pakistan, was found responsible.

• The Indian army tested its new war doctrine - Cold Start - during its recent exercise called Vajra Shakti (Lightning Power) and a new Indian naval base was commissioned at Karwar, along India's south-western coast.

• The US-India strategic relationship continues. But the United States is not about to support India's candidature for a permanent, veto-wielding seat at the UN Security Council. Should India's attempts to secure a seat fail, should it just quit the UN?

• What a India-China 'axis' means for Asia.

A MILLION MATINEES NOW

• Flashback - Was the British Raj good for India?

• The Indian president is most comfortable discussing quantum physics.

• The BlogMela portal provides useful direction to the traveling carnival of the Indian blogosphere

PAKISTAN - THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME

• Pakistan's jihadi camps are back under the magnifying lens after the uncovering of a al-Qaeda cell in California. Two Pakistanis and two Americans of Pakistani origin have been rounded up by US authorities.

• Was the Qur'an desecration controversy created by Pakistani intelligence? Cricket-hero-turned-politician Imran Khan's role in the entire affair is less than responsible, but he may have acted on behalf of the ISI, for was the ISI's Gen Hameed Gul who engineered Khan's entry into the political pitch.

• Gen Musharraf, of course, has distinguished himself as the author of the 'enlightened moderation' thesis. Unfortunately, his own record at home leaves a lot to be desired. 'Mixed marathons' in Pakistan met with mixed success.

• Sectarian terrorism continues, despite a qualified statement from religious leaders condemning suicide-bombing. The United States has been blamed for instigating the latest round of violence.

• Like the Cheshire cat's smile, Khan's network lives on even after he is out of the scene. But the United States may not be done with Khan's doings.

• There are more signs that Musharraf will not step down as Pakistan's president in 2007. He might, however, hand over the baton to a new army chief. He had no qualms in turning up in full military regalia to put squabbling ruling party politicians in order.

• But the General's fans, at least some of them, want his portrait on Pakistani currency notes.

• The North Koreans, impressed with the way Pakistan has been treated, are seeking the same favourable terms that Musharraf has received.

BANGLADESH - STILL HANGING ON

• The political strife continues, but democracy is still holding on.

• Bangladesh hosts a few hundred thousand Pakistani people, who were stranded there when Bangladesh declared independence from Pakistan. Pakistan does not want them back.

• Things got a bit too hot on the India-Bangladesh border, with armed clashes between the border security forces of the two countries. India has now publicly released evidence of terrorist groups that operate out of Bangladesh.

SRI LANKA & NEPAL - IN THE MIDST OF CIVIL WAR

• Islamic fundamentalism is adding a new dimension to Sri Lanka's ethnic civil war.

• The Tamil Tigers have developed an incipient aerial capability

• But do they use forks in Sri Lanka?

• The unpopular crown prince, Paras Shah, has been drives around town amid Nepal's civil war, pitching the King vs Democracy.

• Instead of trying to fix things, should India just invade Nepal?