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The London Bombings: Dan's Future Rx

| 7 Comments | 3 TrackBacks

Apologies for my delay commenting on recent events in London, I have been primarily occupied on this subject with regard to my real job and as such have been unable to access the internet long enough to type up a coherent narrative on what occurred.

Most of what I was planning to say has already been said by either the good folks over at the Counterterrorism Blog or else by my colleagues here at WoC, but there are several other dimensions I think need to be covered in order to make certain that the events of this tragedy do not reoccur.

1. Londonistan delenda est - For those who are unaware, London hosts a wide array of al-Qaeda operatives and front organizations, the most prominent being that headed up by Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Masri (whose trial began today) and Saad al-Faqih of the Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia (MIRA). The vast majority of these individuals live and operate in Britain by exploiting the nation's tolerance for political refugees and abusing its asylum laws. I honestly would not be surprised if this was an entirely homegrown operation as al-Qaeda has more than enough infrastructure based in the London metropolitan area to mount an attack of this scale. These front organizations must be closed down and their members arrested or deported to their countries of origin, death penalty or no. The luxury of assuming that these unsavory characters will never take part in terrorist operations on British soil for fear of harming their infrastructure is now one that the UK can no longer afford.

2. The Issue of Iraq - Thankfully, most of the shriller voices among the British anti-war community (the utterly repulsive Galloway aside) seem to have refrained thus far from exploiting this tragedy for political gain. That may change in the coming days and weeks as more comes out about the nature of the attackers becomes known. My gut instinct is that the attackers were likely party of the North African GIA/GSPC/Salafi Jihad subsection of the al-Qaeda that has long sought to carry out attacks in continental Europe, but it is also entirely possible that the attackers were part of the "bleed back" from Iraq that the CIA and other counterterrorism authorities have been so concerned about. Those calling for withdrawl from Iraq (and in so doing inadvertently echoing the same themes of the Nur al-Iman communique that claimed responsibility for the attacks) need to consder that to carry out such a policy would only serve to place the country in control of the same monsters who carried out today's attacks.

3. The Al-Qaeda communique - Evan Kohlmann over at the Counterterrorism blog that the communique posted on al-Qalaa may be a hoax, whereas Michael Scheuer has been floating around the radio and terriblevision today and saying it's genuine. I don't have an opinion on this one way or another as typical al-Qaeda prose far more resembles far more Dr. Doom or Cobra Commander than anyone else, but either way I doubt it really matters. Go through the very short list of suspects of who would want to harm London and I think the perpetrators become quite clear.

4. Rationale for Attack - Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have repeatedly singled out the UK along with a number of other states as being amongst Those Who Must Die. That order to strike has never been revoked and should be presumed to remain standing until further notice. The occurence of the G8 summit in the UK at the same time, like the announcement that London would host the next Olympics, was simply a fortunate convergence from the perspective of the attackers.

5. British reaction vs. Spanish reaction - A lot of the commentary seems to be focusing on this but I think it's overplayed given that the two events don't really parallel one another since there is no election in Britain and I find it hard to believe that the Labour Party is going to pick now of all times to sack Blair in favor of Gordon Brown. Moreover, one of Aznar's major PR mistakes in the wake of the 3/11 attacks was playing up a possible ETA connection out of both sincere belief as well as a desire to highlight his own record against the Basques. Blair hasn't tried to blame this on the IRA or one of its splinters, so the impetus for his opponents to claim that he was lying or engaged in a cover-up for political purposes would be far more difficult to pull off.

6. This may not be the end of it - I've remarked before to Joe and Bill in conversation that al-Qaeda's threat cycle has long since expired if one accepts that the last major attacks were either 3/11 or Beslan. While I'm certain the need for a constant stream of suicide bombers for Zarqawi in Iraq ties down their capabilities somewhat, the organization (and dare I say it, it's Iran-based leadership) have had more than enough time to give the green light to other major attacks. This guys over at the Counterterrorism blog seem to think that this the beginning of a summer offensive and I readily agree. I am also beginning to wonder, given how these attacks tend to come at us in waves, whether or not the Lashkar-e-Taiba raid on the Ram Temple in Ayodhya shouldn't be viewed within this context given the relative lack of major attacks by Pakistani jihadis inside India and the flashpoint nature of Ayodhya to begin with.

Also, as the first of two final pieces of snark, maybe the BBC wants to re-air "The Power of Nightmares" so they can explain to the population of London that there's no terrorist threat in the wake of this tragedy? And then we have George Galloway, who seems to be auditioning to play the role of Marshal Petain for bin Laden in the event that the West loses this war. Both, I think, have been exposed by these events for the utter fools that they are.

3 TrackBacks

Tracked: July 7, 2005 8:43 PM
Excerpt: We found this blog entry very interesting so we've added a Trackback to it on our site.
Tracked: July 8, 2005 5:20 AM
Britain - No better friend from Watch Your Six
Excerpt: The President said it best after 9/11 when he said that America has no better friend than Great Britain. The coordinated attacks on the British public transportation system will not shake that friendship.
Tracked: July 8, 2005 7:21 PM
Three Sevens Clash from Mystery Achievement
Excerpt: And proving that mass murder--like a trip to the gallows--wonderfully concentrates the mind, Dan Darling produces a readable post.

7 Comments

Dan,

I agree. The points on "The End of Londonistan" and the summer offensive need to be stressed as well. al Qaeda has re-engaged. The only saving grace is they provide the visual reminders that we are at war.

Dan,

We must kick the enemy's butt and right now! We must stay focused, our heads in the game, and keep our eye on the ball.

We must ignore the shots of the detractors from the bleachers.

We must win this war.

See my two cents worth in this thread over at Roger L. Simon's:

RLS Link

The reason Iran has not been blamed officially for the London attacks can be found in Hyde Park, the site of Bechtel Group's London branch office. CNN showed the office the day after the Gulf War ended in 1991. Bechtel constructs military bases, like the ones they built for Saudi Arabia. When the bases are completed Saddam Hussein is then removed. The only way the West can attack Iran is to receive Iran's permission. The EU is Iran's leading trade partner. The news has announced recently that Moscow is planning to attack terrorists bases in Afghanistan. That could begin to take the initiative away from Iran. Read more on www.crossfirewar.com.

British reaction vs. Spanish reaction

two events don't really parallel one another
I agree

Aznar's major PR mistakes [...] playing up a possible ETA connection
Aznar said nothing about ETA. Acebes, home minister, told that the prime suspect was ETA, but other leads were followed. And he was just reading the police information he was receiving, with full transparency. All this has been clarified in the Investigation Commission.

What is more important today, in my opinion, is that it seems that the British government has learnt the lesson from what had happened to its close allied Aznar, and has released information about the bombings very slowly and always downplaying the incidents as they called it yesterday in the 1500 hour news conference. Note that during some hours in the morning, the explosions were regarded as related to a power surge, until National Grid denied it. Then, once that it was clear that they were actual bombs, the number of deaths was hidden. In fact we knew the number of victims on information from the hospitals, not from the Security Forces. From those figures it was easily to extrapolate the number of deaths, but still no one said anything about them until around 1500 local time. Even then, the fatalities in the bus were not computed.

Taking into account the results of the full transparency policy in 3/11, the British government decided, clearly, not to proceed that way, thus avoiding any temptation to manipulate public opinion by irresponsible politics or media, as it happened then.

Vietnam war wasn't won in Hanoi, but lost in Washington. Public opinion is the weakest link in this war, that is being fought in the Middle East, but decided in the West

As Al Qurashi said as he designed Al Qaeda strategy, the work of some political groups and media in the Western Democracies is the equivalent of "four divisions". The British government wisely didn't want to give such an advantage to the enemy.

THE EMPIRE IS RISING AGAIN AND MUSLIMS WILL PAY FOR SPILLING BLOOD ON ENGLANDS GREEN AND PLEASENT LAND!!!

idiot

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