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July 25, 2005

Monday Winds of War: July 25/05

by Evariste at July 25, 2005 6:29 AM

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday.

Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by evariste of Discarded Lies.

Top Topics

Other Topics Today Include:
Italy to stay in Iraq a spell; Palestinian civil war; PDB to merge with daily terror threat report; nuclear terrorism response simulation; Kenya arrests five; Clinton prods on Mugabe; Pak nuke worries; Euro arrest warrant made toothless; UK to act on imams; Zawahiri a KGB agent and more...

THE MIDDLE EAST

AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS

AFRICA

ASIA

EUROPE

THE GLOBAL WAR

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.

For ongoing tips, email "MondayWindsOfWar", over here @windsofchange.net.


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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference
"Monday Winds of War: July 25/05"
Tracked: July 25, 2005 7:13 AM
Winds of War Briefing from Discarded Lies
Excerpt: My Monday Winds of War is up! Topics include: Italy to stay in Iraq a spell; Palestinian civil war; PDB to merge with daily terror threat report; nuclear terrorism response simulation; Kenya arrests five; Clinton prods on Mugabe; Pak nuke...
Tracked: July 25, 2005 7:13 AM
Winds of Change Briefing from Security Watchtower
Excerpt: Monday's Winds of War Briefing and Iraq Report has been posted at Winds of Change....
Tracked: July 25, 2005 4:49 PM
MUST READ from Geopolitical Review
Excerpt: Be sure to read... how the Norwegian government is covering up the incredibly high percentage of rapes caused by immigrants. about the spread of Kurdish riots in Iran. how police in the U.S. are preparing for suicide bombers. R.J. Rummel...
Tracked: July 25, 2005 9:19 PM
Excerpt: Winds of Change has a huge update of news from around the world related to the war on terror.

Comments
#1 from Colt at 5:34 pm on Jul 25, 2005
#2 from Narmer at 6:48 pm on Jul 25, 2005

May want to add some wierd happenings in China relating to Bird Flu. Looks like an epidemic is begining there, and the Chinese are being as forthcoming about it as they were with SARS.

Chinese Sources:
http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/english/page1.shtml

Summary & Comment by a genetics / public health expert:

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

The frightening thing is that Avian Flu is far more dangerous than SARS, so if they are experience. This is as much a strategic issue as any!

#3 from Narmer at 6:53 pm on Jul 25, 2005

Oops! Sorry about my last post! (Little experience at this).

May want to add some wierd happenings in China relating to Bird Flu. Looks like an epidemic is begining there, and the Chinese are being as forthcoming about it as they were with SARS.

Chinese Sources:
Boxum 'Abundant News' Service, the first news source to break the SARS story in China, now reporting Avian Flu developments

Summary & Comment by a genetics / public health expert:

Recombinomics - News

The frightening thing is that Avian Flu is far more dangerous than SARS, so if they are experience. This is as much a strategic issue as any!

#4 from Tom Holsinger at 7:01 pm on Jul 25, 2005

The xSoviet nukes stories, particularly the one about suitcase nukes, are ludicrous. Soviet and now Russian nukes have short shelf-lives compared to those of other countries, and all "suitcase" nukes, including ours, had very, very short shelf-lives.

At this point it is questionable whether any xSoviet nuclear weapon would produce any chain reaction, and xSoviet suitcase nukes certainly wouldn't. A chain reaction is necessary to create a messy radioactive fizzle, which is the dangerous sort of radiological device.

Most anyone willing to die horribly can make a weaponized radiological device of the cesium isotope sources used to power some medical radiological instruments, and those medical isotopes sometimes turn up in Latin American junkyards where they kill unwary people, usually children. Use of those things to make radiological weapons is not particularly effective though - mostly to scare people as in "Eeeek, a nuke!"

#5 from Jon at 7:35 pm on Jul 25, 2005

ITER is a research project and an international collaboration primarily run by Japan and Europe, not the US. There is no military application for it and having India join has no strategic implications.

#6 from Tom Holsinger at 8:10 pm on Jul 25, 2005

One more point:

When an article or book starts talking about the threat of former Soviet nukes, skip to the next article or put the book down. The author doesn't know what he or she is talking about. For that matter, you can generally ignore anything else written by that author.

#7 from Joe Katzman at 9:15 pm on Jul 25, 2005

I've no doubt China's very active espionage agencies have targeted and stolen AEGIS-related materials (and the US has been quite blind to this activity since the 1990s - glad that's changing). I'm sure some of that found its way into China's new destroyers.

But it's very difficult to steal an entire weapons system as complicated as AEGIS (which includes a lot of software components), and if true it would be a huge spy scandal. You can't do it just by becoming a contractor, either - and that element of the story suggested to me that the reporter's understanding of these things may be limited.

Be aware, too, that the Russian Military Fire Sale™ continues apace, and so what your seeing here is more probably advanced Russian phased-array radar and fire control technology, with some modifications based on stolen AEGIS plans.

Is it reliable? Is it buggy? Will it perform at the expected level? Unless they've conducted some tests of the system, it's hard to know.

#8 from Robin Roberts at 9:40 pm on Jul 25, 2005

With respect to AEGIS, just because China comes up with an equivalent system doesn't mean necessarily that they stole it. The basic concepts are in the open literature, phased array radars exist in many forms from different countries including Russia.

An example is the Russian shuttle Buran, which at first glance looks very similar to our space shuttle and the Soviets/Russians were accused of espionage. But in reality, the external differences were dictated mostly by the aerodynamic principles and the internal design was not that derivative.

#9 from T. J. Madison at 1:19 am on Jul 26, 2005

>>Soviet and now Russian nukes have short shelf-lives compared to those of other countries, and all "suitcase" nukes, including ours, had very, very short shelf-lives.

The portable nukes were small fission devices, yes? Which components were subject to rapid deterioration?

>>Will Al Qaeda attack us with nukes on Aug. 6 and Aug. 9?

That would be somewhat amusing, in a really sick way. Al Qaeda could surpass the USG in the "Sponsor of World's Worst Single Terrorist Atrocity" category.

I'm not sweating.

#10 from Engineer-Poet at 1:35 am on Jul 26, 2005

Mr. Madison:  If I understand correctly, micro-nukes require neutron sources for triggers and have compression charges which are affected by age and radiation.  If anything deteriorates too far, the device destroys itself but the nuclear event is a fizzle or even nothing.

#11 from john at 1:38 pm on Jul 26, 2005
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