Winds Iraq Report: Aug 1/05

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from Iraq that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Joel Gaines and Andrew Olmsted are taking vacations with their families, so Joe Katzman is filling in for today's report. Been a while since I did one of these...

TOP TOPICS

• Arthur Chrenkoff's latest edition of Good News from Iraq is up!

• The Carnival of the Liberated, a sampler of some of the best posts of the week from Iraqi and Afghani bloggers, is up at Dean's World.

• Mudville Gazette takes a long, hard look at press coverage in Iraq. Interesting to hear some reporters saying the military officers who stay in the Green Zone have no idea what's going on in Iraq. Take that argument to its logical conclusion, boys, as you sit in the hotels....

Other Topics Today Include: Targeting Michael Yon; Counter-guerilla cascades; Sheikh Dale L. Horn; Iraqi unemployment, economic growth; Reconstruction highlights; The constitution; Zakaria on talks with Ba'athists; Does al-Sadr own the Basra police?; Iraq & Syria; Did Iran win?; Algeria & Algeria; Changes in British debate; JAG promotion questioned; Strategy review; PA's idiot LtG; Over There underwhelms; Support the Troops.

REPORTS FROM THE FIELD

• The indispensible Michael Yon is still out there doing real reporting. Read Empty Jars: "...There is a pattern of cascades in counterguerrilla combat operations. In this kind of warfare, information drives maneuvers, and a single capture of a key person frequently cascades into a shower of raids and captures, each pregnant with the next storm." LOTS more great stuff, go read!

• Oh, and no pressure but: "This raid was interesting; information had recently come in that the terrorists were plotting to kill a journalist here in Mosul, and some officers believed the target was me." Note that the 'anti-aircraft missiles' are (ballistic) RPGs, not (guided) SA-7s.

• "Sheik Horn floats around the room in white robe and headdress, exchanging pleasantries with dozens of village leaders. But he's the only sheik with blonde streaks in his mustache - and the only one who attended country music star Toby Keith's recent concert in Baghdad with fellow U.S. soldiers. Officially, he's Army Staff Sgt. Dale L. Horn, but to residents of the 37 villages and towns that he patrols, he's known as the American sheik." Amusing and very educational, all at once.

• Major K says there's trouble in his sandbox: "I cannot comment on the ongoing investigation save to say that I am disgusted by the actions of a few that have tarnished the good work of so many others. ... The Battalion is currently under a microscope, and many people have been relieved or moved.... I have been moved to a MiTT - Military Transition Team, where I will be training members of the new Iraqi Army."

• Armor Geddon has more recollections from Fallujah: "It was exactly out of that scene in The Simpsons Season 5 episode 'Cape Feare.' Bart is being chased by Sideshow Bob so he runs to one end of the houseboat and peers over the edge and there are alligators in the water. So he runs to the other end and there are electric eels. So he sprints to the front again and peers over and sees the alligators and says, 'Oh yeah.' " Memorable and funny as always.

• Video of the first Iraqi Army Basic Training graduating class... of women. There's a lot to be said for Islamic girls with gun, especially when you see surveys like this. BTW, this is the sort of thing these guys miss...

• There's also a lot to be said for new American citizens via a ceremony in Iraq. Here's a shout-out to the inimitable 'Q' and the rest of Deuce Four's newest Americans.

RECONSTRUCTION & THE ECONOMY

• Reader S. Lipton writes: "I came across this in a RAND report for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and was pretty surprised that economic growth rates so high could be true and still not be up-front in the whole debate over "progress in Iraq". Our GDP growth making Greenspan happy at about 3.3%, it seems to me that Iraq's GDP growing at 50% and 16% in the context of sabotage and terrorism is a significant statistic. I've found these numbers confirmed in a couple places on the web, like here."

• And... "The RAND report also stated that many of the most popular estimates of unemployment in Iraq are exaggerated - 40-50% when the reality is more like 10-20% - due to flawed measurement (e.g. asking people if they're unemployed rather than asking if they worked last week, with people saying they're unemployed even though they have a full time job because it's not the kind of work they consider as their profession). That's corroborated in this study by Fafo, which notes that unemployment, though a major problem, has dropped significantly from pre-war levels as a result of lifting of sanctions & CPA policy."

• Winds has talked about the "Marsh Arabs" before, whose lives were destroyed in Saddam's deliberate ecocide of a wetlands comparable to the Everglades. Now as USAID scientific report presented to the AAAS concluded that the marshlands can be partially restored and could offer employment and livelihoods if done correctly. Partially, alas...

• Here are some of this week's reconstruction highlights: Electrification focus to meet expanding electricity needs; Restoring the existing water treatment plant to its original capacity
  and providing the design for a second expansion at this site, increasing the supply of treated water by approximately 90 MGD; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) accepted Iraq's Monetary Survey; Allah preserve the Iraqis, they're training Iraqi tax officials; USAID is working with bank officials to develop guidelines for credit policies and procedures for commercial banks on lending activities and credit files; $21 million micro-credit program underway; Iraq's poultry industry is internationally competitive; Agricultural programs, outreach & zoning underway; USAID continues to teach facilitation & democratic political skills across Iraq; USAID's Community Action Program (CAP) worked with a community in northern Iraq to rebuild the sports facilities at a rehabilitation center for the disabled; strong presence in Hillah and the Shi'a holy cities Najaf and Karbala have completed 322 projects; web-based distance learning links Iraqi schools to U.S. universities; 25 physicians from the Iraqi Ministry of Health graduated from a six-day Training of Trainers workshop (TOT). [full PDF file]

• Saddam attacked in court brawl? Or maybe not? Jerry Springer, call your office...

IRAQI POLITICS

• Iraq's constitution is the question du jour. Will they hit the deadline, or do they need more time?

• Praktike's Liberals Against Terrorism blog offers some background on a couple of the contentious issues. So does Omar of Iraq the Model.

• John F. Cullinan: "Federalism and the religion-and-state question are the two basic issues behind the ongoing procedural wrangling... These two issues are the hinge on which the future of Iraq hangs in the balance. How they are handled will determine the success or failure of Iraq as a stable and unitary state, as well as the ongoing U.S. commitment of blood, treasure, and prestige."

• Fareed Zakaria on the talks between the USA and ex-Baathists, and what it might mean.

• The NYT wonders if the British are taking the easy way out in Basra: "In May, [the] police chief told a British newspaper that half of his 7,000-man force was affiliated with religious parties. This may have been an optimistic estimate: one young Iraqi officer told me that "75 percent of the policemen I know are with Moktada al-Sadr - he is a great man." And unfortunately, the British seem unable or unwilling to do anything about it." Yeah, and we had plenty of warning.

• USAID has now received comprehensive reports on the January 30 elections from more than 80% of the country's polling places. These reports were completed by the 10,000 Iraqi monitors that were trained by USAID partners who conducted comprehensive polling center assessments at three times during the election day—at opening, midday, and closing.

THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE

• Iraq is getting growly with Syria.

• But if you really want to see snarly, there's Mohammed at Iraq the Model with "Are we going to let them win? Did Syria and Iran win in their indirect war on Iraq?"

• The kidnapping and murder of an Algerian diplomat links back to Algeria and the role of al-Qaeda's key affiliate GSPC.

• Intel Dump offers some thoughts re: the nomination of JAG Col. Warren to become a 1-star general. Both think that he's a brilliant, capable man. Both also think that having Abu Ghraib happen on his watch ought to get his name pulled.

• David Ignatius, Washington Post: "A useful rule about Iraq is that things are never as good as they seem in the up times, nor as bad as they seem in the down times. That said, things do look pretty darn bad right now, and U.S. officials need to ponder whether their strategy for stabilizing the country is really working."

• Thr left-wing bloggers over at Harry's Place discuss how the debate about Iraq and the war is changing in Britain.

ETCETERA

• "[Pennsylvania Lt. Governor] Knoll shows up at the funeral [of a soldier killed in Iraq], says she arrived too late to pay her respects to the widow and other immediate family members, then hands out business card(s) and makes a comment about how the government does not support the war. Apparently too busy to stay and offer her condolences in person, Knoll finds the time to ham it up for the cameras outside and talk with the media." Good Lord. Read the whole story, if your stomach can stand it.

• MilBlogger Blackfive asks his readers for their reviews of the new American TV show "Over There." The tidal wave of thumbs down reviews (unrealistic, incredibly stereotyped characters, little relation to their Iraq experiences) begins - and 52 trackbacks propagate the wave. But 5/6 LA Times staffers who cover the war said the characters were realistic.

• Grim rips Prof. Kennedy for his "army of mercenaries" comment in the NYT. Meanwhile, a former student of Prof. David Kennedy's says people are getting his comments all wrong. He makes a good case that Kennedy is not as hostile as portrayed: "...You see, Kennedy asked me to join that army."

• Do you have your GI Bracelet? Many military families fall into financial hardship when the breadwinner is injured or killed. The entire purchase price of the GI Bracelet is donated to support our troops and their families! Please join us to give back to these brave people in their time of need.

• The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!

• Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know. And if you have a tip for a future Iraq Report, email us at MondayIraqReport(at)windsofchange.net.