Civilian Stealth

First off, it's important to note that these developments are not entirely a surprise.

An Indian government adviser hinted in 2002 at a new military satellite in the early stages of development, to be built by Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and launched by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) from the launch facilitaites in French Guyana or Sritharikota Island.

At the time, sources in ISRO noted that it is not mandated to launch military satellites, unless there is a directive from the government or a major shift in the policy laid down when ISRO was set up in 1972.

In practice, however, this has not been an issue.

One reason is that ISRO's activities have not always been entirely civilian. In May 1992, for instance, the U.S. Department of State imposed trade sanctions against ISRO for its missile proliferation activities in India.

Another reason is that several of India's current civilian satellites have resolutions that would make them acceptable spy satellites.

ISRO launched the 1-meter resolution Technology Experiment Satellite (TES) in 2001, making it the only civilian space agency to possess this technology besides the American, privately owned Ikonos satellite. Although at the time of the launch former chairman of ISRO K. Kasturirangan said that the satellite was meant for "civilian use consistent with our security concerns," it went on to successfully relay high-quality images of the war in Afghanistan and of Pakistani troop movements along the border.

Notes that 1-meter resolution means TES can distinguish objects and details on Earth as small as one square meter (about three feet square) To put that in vernacular terms: You can count the cars in a parking lot, and tell which are pickups and sedans, but it isn't good enough to distinguish individual people or read automobile license plates.

India successfully launched Resourcesat-1 (IRS-P6) on October 17, 2003, which is considered their most sophisticated remote sensing satellite to date. Its maximum resolution is approximately 6 meters. On May 7, 2005, ISRO went on to launch the 2.5-meter resolution Cartosat-1 satellite, which has "two cameras able to point at an object from two different angles." Cartosat-2 will have an expected 1-meter resolution and a 120 GB storage capacity for captured images, and is scheduled for launch at the end of 2005.

Officially, the Cartosat platforms will be used for cartographic purposes, as well as urban and rural development. Unofficially, they are effectively dual-use even though they are below the 10-15cm (4"-6") capabilities of the best military satellites today.

Integration: The Secret Weapon

One good way to leverage all of this work would be to build a facility to collect input from these diverse platforms, integrate it with other sensors and information, and display it for analysis and monitoring. This could provide a strong surveillance capability just by combining existing "civilian" assets already in place.

Alternatively, ISRO may indeed be preparing a military-quality high resolution satellite for launch. Even in this eventuality, however, a complementary integrated ground system may offer India the best option for immediate growth in their Satellite Reconnaissance and Surveillance (SRS) system's overall capabilities.

The Israeli Option

Another option for India is to include elements of foreign cooperation in its system.

Israel has been considering an Indian offer to lease the Israeli Ofek-5 military remote-sensing satellite since September 2003. Israel's Defense Ministry reportedly offered India the services of the dual-use 1.8-meter resolution Eros-A remote-sensing satellite in December 2003, but an agreement for the Ofek (which is believed to have resolution below 1 meter) would allow India to obtain superior images.

Satellite Trends

India's recent ambitions aren't an isolated case. Rather, they're outgrowths of global trends with implications for the USA.

Both satellite surveillance capabilities and electronic networking and synthesis of this information are the products of falling technology threshholds, with the computing element falling fastest. As Wulf von Kries notes:

"The French Spot system, although established as a civilian enterprise, from the outset was also planned to serve as a testbed for a later military system, i.e. Helios which came into being in 1995. Not surprisingly, therefore, both systems have a number of commonalities, e.g. the spacecraft "bus" and certain subsystems such as the data recorders. From a broader point of view it is interesting to note that the current civilian Spot system in terms of performance is equivalent to earlier US reconnaissance satellites, and that the first generation military Helios system will be matched by the planned commercial high-resolution US systems."

Note, too, the U.S. National Imagery and Mapping Agency contract to Space Imaging for exclusive rights to all commercial Ikonos satellite imagery of conflict areas in Central Asia following 9/11, in a $1.9-million per month deal that had indefinite renewal options.

Buying up available capacity may work now, but increasing numbers of commercial and national "civilian" satellites with high-resolution capabilities will eventually render this option much less useful.

As my history teacher Neil McLean used to say, "it isn't good or bad, it just is."

India: Into the Future

Though ISRO and DRDO officials were tightlipped about the project, Indian experts have said the set up of extensive ground-based surveillance and coordination systems, hooked up to India's remote sensing satellites, would enable the country to keep a watch on all explosive spots, missile silos, any movements in the neighborhood, as well as sudden military build-ups.

Despite its limited resources, India has and is continuing to develop a broad-based space program with indigenous launch vehicles, satellites, control facilities, and data processing.

It would seem that the country may be ready to take the next step.

Additional Readings & Sources

• Space Today Online's The Satellite Wars: Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq offers a rundown of existing and future U.S. reconaissance satelite programs, and explains how these assets have been used in recent conflicts.

• SPX, via SpaceWar (Aug 9/05) - India To Set Up Military SBS System By 2007

• SpaceRef.com (Oct. 27/03) - PSLV Launches RESOURCESAT-1 (IRS-P6)

• Rediff (Aug 2/02) - India to launch military satellite soon: Aatre

• Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) - India: Military Space Programs

• GlobalSecurity.org - Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)

• Defense Industry Daily (May 29/05) - India's Defense Market: Obstacles to Modernization

• Wulf Von Kries of DLR, via Space4Peace.org - Dual Use of Remote Satellite Sensing

• Monterey Institute of International Studies, Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) - Israel: Military Space Programs

• Israel Insider (May 29, 2002) - Ofek-5's successful launch gives Israel "eyes in space"

• DEBKAFile also claims to offer some less well-known details re: Ofek-5, including a capability of "rapid orbital detuning." Note that DEBKAFile has a reputation for being correct and brilliant sometimes, and rather off the mark at other times.

• Defense Industry Daily (Aug. 4/05) - GAO Report: Satellite Programs Show Overruns Across the Board

• Marco Caceres of The Teal Group in American Institute of Aeronautics & Astronautics (AIAA) Industry Insights (Jan. 2002) - Military satellites: The next generation