Hamas - it's new face and the problems it causes

The publication by Hamas – and now Islamic Jihad – of their leaders, complete with profiles and photographs, is aimed squarely at the Arab population. I’d hope that the Israelis knew the names revealed already, or at least most of them. If I were a little more pessimistic, I’d say that these characters will be on the Hamas ticket in the legislative ‘elections’ coming up. More likely, Hamas are simply trying to remind people that the Islamic Resistance Movement is alive and well, as proven by the Israeli retreat from Gaza.

A recent Hamas press release using IDF figures claimed over 50% of the attacks on soldiers and civilians in Gaza, a figure which Hamas is using to prove they are responsible for the Israeli withdrawal.

Despite the death-cult prevalent within Palestinian Arab culture, a movement that pledges something as enormous as the destruction of Israel needs living heroes as well as dead ones. The one live hero Hamas can produce was Mohammed Deif, who came out of hiding for a video that can be summed up as “Gaza first, Israel next”. He was a bombmaker who survived an Israeli attempt on his life in 2003. His voice was weak, and his face was cast in shadow – he is probably still suffering from his wounds, and may have scarring on his face.

While his message and unwillingness to die surely went down well, a weakened, scarred ex-terrorist who has been on the run for two years doesn’t inspire much hope in those who would like to see a re-run of May 2002, with buses and cafes blowing up virtually everyday for a month.

So although many of the leaders revealed to the public are old hands, Hamas clearly want a new set of terrorists to inspire support. Unfortunately, a new set of terrorists need a new wave of terrorist attacks to inspire that support, and Qassams probably aren’t going to do the trick.

The drawback to this is that the sorts of attacks that bring the Arabs to the streets in celebration are often followed death from above for unfortunate Hamas leaders. Hamas will probably find themselves walking a tightrope between rejectionist-terrorism and politically-acceptable.

A shift in focus

It isn’t surprising, then, that Israel’s Defence Minister has announced that the war on terror will be shifting from Gaza to Judea and Samaria. The attack on a Be’er Sheva bus station two weeks was the first suicide bombing for nearly a month. But, as virtually everyone in the Israeli military-intelligence community has been predicting, Israel can expect a new wave of terrorist attacks soon. Recently fired IDF chief-of-staff General Moshe Ya’alon suggested it might start in the spring of 2006, but the recent increase of IDF arrests and shootings of ‘ticking bomb’ cells in Judea and Samaria could well mean we the Israelis are trying to land the first blows. Besides the obvious strategic benefits in eliminating terrorist cells prior to a new campaign, the Israeli administration is at pains to prove its tough-on-terror credentials. Sharon pledged to respond to any attack with massive force, and a successful mass-casualty attack could well prompt a large-scale operation.

So, in short, in the coming months, expect some or all of the following:

• An increase in muscle-flexing, rhetoric and power-plays from Kaddoumi and the al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades. This may take the form of terrorist attacks against Israel, the kidnapping or assassination of PA leaders and denunciations of Abbas as a traitor – not by men in masks, but men in suits. When that happens, it’ll be a sign things are changing in Fatah.

• Attempts by Hamas to assert themselves as a movement that can repeat its successes. Presenting themselves as an alternative to Fatah requires personalities – living ones. The drawback to this is that one of the main ways Hamas gains popularity is by killing Israelis – acts which could lead to death-by-gunship for the same top-tier characters Hamas are trying to build up.

• Islamic Jihad has little political clout, so it will likely either tack themselves to another big faction, or become even more dangerous. I have suspicions that the ‘new’ al-Qaeda faction in Gaza is little more than an Islamic Jihad spin-off. During the past few months, Islamic Jihad was considered the greatest threat by the Israelis. The discovery of truck bombs and rockets in Judea and Samaria prompted a series of arrests of PIJ members.

It isn’t all that daring to predict more terrorism and violence in the Middle East, but there it is. The one bright point – if you can call it that – is that Hamas may well veer from all-out terrorism to rhetoric-accompanied-by-rockets. That’s it. That’s the silver lining.

But...

That said, the Israelis are much more effective in this sort of warfare than they were five years ago. The steep decline in the number of Israeli casualties is obvious proof, but the fact is that the number of attempts hasn't dwindled all that much in the last five years. What's changed is that the Israelis are getting to the cells early - often while they are still in the planning stages. There hasn't been a desperate hunt for a suicide bomber for a while now, and the last one I recall blew himself up when cornered in Judea and Samaria - killing only himself and harming no-one else.

While an increase in terrorism is likely, then, it seems decidedly unlikely that we'll see repeats of May 2002, with bombings and shootings of Israelis virtually every day. Since that time, the successful suicide attacks have been the exception rather than the rule. The next wave of attacks won't change that. Alas, there may be more exceptions that in recent times.

Update: Moussa Arafat was assassinated last night.