Despite being one of the world's foremost experts on al-Qaeda, Dr. Gunaratna has unfortunately had to play the role of Cassandra to the Indonesian government's Trojans. In his book Inside Al Qaeda, published in May 2002, Dr. Gunaratna identified most of the principles who would later be involved in the first Bali bombings that October. At the time the Indonesian political class, which was currently debating amongst itself as to whether or not Jemaah Islamiyah even existed or was instead simply the product of US propaganda and paranoia, refused to believe it. In their minds, the allegations that a senior Indonesian official (read: then-Vice President Hamza Haz) was in close touch with al-Qaeda after 9/11 or that al-Qaeda had sought to infiltrate the Free Aceh Movement, Council of Indonesian Muslim Associations (MASYUMI), Nahdlat ul-Ulema, Mohammadiyyah, the Development and Unity Party (PPP), and the Dewan Dawaa were seen as too fantastical to be believed. While the Indonesian political establishment was certainly aware of the dangers of radical Islam, they, in a view rather like that which is eerily if rather implausibly argued by Jason Burke in the Observer today believed that "it is almost inconceivable that yesterday's bombers could have been acting as part of some grand, co-ordinated strategy by a South East Asian group, let alone on the orders of someone up a mountain in Afghanistan."
History, it seems, has a way of repeating itself.
Now to be fair, after Bali, the Indonesian political establishment found within itself the will to crack down and the police did an admirable job of arresting many of the individuals that Dr. Gunaratna had earlier identified as being senior members of the terrorist group. The CIA capture of Hambali deprived the group of its most formidable leader and when combined with the arrest of Abu Bakar Bashir's interim successor as the group's spiritual leader provoked an schism within the group that I discuss in some detail here.
Unfortunately, this schism led to a number of people, including very smart people like Gareth Evans of the International Crisis Group arguing that JI was too drawn down by the internal feuding to mount any major attacks.
Here again, Dr. Gunaratna saw through to the truth of the matter:
However, Rohan Gunaratna, an expert on terrorism in South-East Asia, said JI remained a "credible threat" in the region.
"It is the most active terrorist group in South-East Asia today," Dr Gunaratna said.
"I think that Australian and Indonesian police have done a very good job in fighting JI but still JI key operatives are free and they are planning and preparing attacks."
Dr Gunaratna said he believed JI would mount an attack in the coming months.
"JI poses a threat to Australia because JI has intention of attacking Australian interests and if possible JI would like to attack inside Australia," he said.
"JI had a very significant network in Australia that was dismantled after the Bali attack, we must not forget that."
That was on September 27 and unfortunately history has once again proven him correct. One of the reasons for this is that Dr. Gunaratna understands that the nature of the JI schism is between the pragmatists whose goal involves the creation of an Islamic theocracy in Indonesia through political means (and hence see participation with al-Qaeda as being detrimental to that cause) and the militarists who have remained firm in their loyalty to Osama bin Laden. The pragmatists appear to be in control of most of the group's financing and support infrastructure within Indonesia proper, while the militarists, led by a troika of Azahari bin Husin, Zulkarnaean, and Noordin Mohammed Top control the JI external network throughout the rest of Southeast Asia, including the terrorist training camps in the southern Philippines that they can use to train new recruits. They are, however, in a bit of a funding problem and hence have to rely on cash through the Golden Chain to resupply them periodically through the "dual use" NGOs we've all come to know and love over the last several years.
Having established that Gunaratna was once again correct in his assessment of the situation, one might suspect that perhaps the Indonesian government should start listening to him instead of deporting him. His proposed measures today would seem well worth their time in light of recent events:
"I believe that Australia is playing a very decisive role in strengthening Indonesian capacity to respond to the terrorist threat.
"But I also believe that Australia needs to be more decisive in its offshore counter-terrorism policy because if JI continues to survive certainly Australia and Australian interests will suffer."
Prof Gunaratna said Australia needed to push to have JI declared illegal in Indonesia.
"Australia has been very successful in building counter-terrorism tactical capabilities in the Indonesian police, but still at the legislative level, JI is still a legal organisation in Indonesia," he said.
"JI must be proscribed and designated as a terrorist group and the Indonesians will do this only if there is international pressure and I hope that Australian leaders will now raise this issue with the Indonesian authorities."
Seems like reasonable advice to me. But I won't hold my breath waiting for the Indonesian government to listen.
The Bali bombs look like inside jobs by the federal terrorists, to justify the imposition of the new world order and marshall law everywhere.
Am I the only one thinking that any Aussie's who got exploded this time were asking for it?
I know the Bali officials were pleading for tourists to return after the last "incident", but for God's sake, those same officials had a revolving door policy on keeping the bad guys locked up.
Until we see Muslims and their governments either killing or locking these guys up in perpetuity, then I think anyone who vacations in (and gives their money to) a place where there has been Al-Queda activity before is too dumb to live and will be given a chance to join all those other lost souls and their 72 virgins.
And that includes Egypt, too.
I see Sofocleto is a fan of the more ludicrous conspiracy theories. Dare I ask just which "federal" terrorists?
You know, there is arguement to the idea that Bush's incompetency in Iraq is actually design. The chaos now pits muslim against muslim.
Sure, oz. The only reason that Iraq is in "chaos" is because Bush is incompetent.
Right. Let me note that.
oz: The chaos now pits muslim against muslim.
And in other breaking news, scientists now believe that the world is round.
Of course Robin.
Here is a bigger ludicrous conspiracy theory:
"It is now clear that those who have rejected [the official account of 9/11] have been proven right," writes Martin. "The future hijackers were detected by US government agencies, including the CIA and military intelligence, yet nothing was done either to arrest them or disrupt their activities . . . There is only one politically serious explanation of this now-indisputable fact: powerful forces within the US military/intelligence complex wanted a terrorist incident on US soil in order to create the needed shift in public opinion required to embark on a long-planned campaign of military intervention in Central Asia and the Middle East."
Read this article here
And Pearl Harbor, don't forget Pearl Harbor.
Are you being sarcastic? This is a bigger ludicrous conspiracy theory:
I guess Sofocieto is referring to Able Danger, which I would point out was shut down by CLINTON's Administration, though it continued in some rump analysis capacity under SOCOM and Gen Schoomaker in Ft Dill, Florida. Able Danger identified Atta, possibly not under that name, as belonging to a "cell" that tied back to the Al Quds Mosque in Brooklynn where Blind Sheik Abdul Rahman and other 1993 Conspirators operated out of. This was in Summer of 2000, after the 1998 Embassy bombings but before the Cole. Under Clinton.
Suspicion is that it was shut down when test runs linked Condolezza Rice and other people (including some in the Clinton Admin) to Chinese Espionage. Politically, this leaking out would have killed Al Gore's campaign (Clinton spying on US citizens!) hence the decsion to kill Able Danger. Don't forget as well Clinton's campaign had some questionable Mainland Chinese money funneled in too.
This is hardly a conspiracy, more like politics and idiocy as usual. Complacency is the big enemy of counter-terrorism and it explains Able Danger being shut down, and the failure of Indonesia to take the political pain of shutting down JI.
Here at home, we are also in denial. A suicide bomber blew himself up outside the University of Oklahoma football game, with 80K plus in the stadium. I have long feared an attack on a stadium, probably in the middle of the country with pilots infiltrated into the FedEx or UPS air freight network. It's the natural target and one Al Qaeda likes to hit.
a long-planned campaign of military intervention in Central Asia ...
At long last, the zinc mines of Kyrgyzstan will be ours. Heh heh heh.
Typo alert: in the first paragraph, 'principles' should be 'principals'.
Sofocleto, you appear to be untroubled by the bizarre leaps of logic and logical fallacies involved in your claim. The "explanation" is in fact not serious and the fact is not "indisputable". Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?
Until we see Muslims and their governments either killing or locking these guys up in perpetuity, then I think anyone who vacations in (and gives their money to) a place where there has been Al-Queda activity before is too dumb to live and will be given a chance to join all those other lost souls and their 72 virgins.
Until we see Europeans and Americans locking terrorists and their supporters up in perpetuity, terrorism will continue.
Speaking of too dumb to live, Europe & Britain let terrorists run free and American leaders hold hands with the biggest supporters of terrorism. Egypt is probably about as safe as London, which isn't saying much.
Dan,
Off-topic, but when did you become a fan of Don Mclean?
Or perhaps you see yourself as a Van Gogh figure?
:)
The truly funniest thing about it JC is that it's actually a play on a much-repeated line from Babylon 5: "They don't listen, they never listen."
having just come back from Egypt Id say that it is a safer place to be than London.
But the question on my lips is since it is almost the 3 year aniversary of the 2005 bombings and 6 years from the 2002 will there be a third blast?