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October 30, 2005The Cicero Articlesby Dan Darling at October 30, 2005 7:02 AM
While President Ahmadinejad's call for the annihilation of Israel elicited (and rightly so) a great deal of international outcry even among the Iranian regime's staunchest defenders, at some point one must consider that it is far more important what the Iranian government does than what it says. Towards that end, I would like to call the readers' attention to two articles that have appeared in the German political magazine Cicero over the last year. The first, published last spring, was apparently so concerning to the German government in terms of the information contained that it prompted a raid on Cicero's Potsdam-based offices by German authorities. To the best of my knowledge, much of this information has yet to be widely reported in the English media. This blog post will contain the full text of the first Cicero article courtesy of the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) and the relevant portions of the second courtesy of Rantburg poster Iblis with relatively little commentary, enabling readers to read both of them and draw their own conclusions. The World's Most Dangerous Man Two brief points, not the least of which being that this appears to verify much of the information presented by Collin Powell at the United Nations with respect to the nature and threat posed by Zarqawi and his network. While Powell's primary focus was on Iraq, at least one observer has noted that European governments were likely quite surprised that he mentioned nothing about Zarqawi's ties to Iran. As for the phone numbers, lest anyone assume that the author of this article was compromising intelligence information, these numbers have appeared on German court documents prior to this point and were likely obtained by German authorities during their investigation into cells loyal to Zarqawi that were active in Germany during 2002. And then there is this excerpt from the second article: Dass nach Ahmadineschads Amtsantritt Realität wird, was bisher nur angedroht wurde, befürchten nun die europäischen Verhandlungspartner Irans. Zumal ihre Geheimdienste über alarmierende Erkenntnisse verfügen. „Für Ahmadineschad ist die Terrordrohung keine diplomatische Fingerübung. Der glaubt an die ‚Reinheit‘ der islamistischen Revolution und setzt um, was er androht“, stellt ein westlicher Geheimdienst fest. Which Rantburg poster Iblis translated as follows: The reality of Ahmadineschad’s assumption of office, only threatened so far, now worries Iran’s European negotiating partners. Particularly since their secret services posses alarming realizations. “For Ahmadineschad the terror threat is not a diplomatic finger exercise. He believes in the ‘purity’ of the Islamic revolution and acts on his beliefs" observes a western secret service. Which seems to track with AFP's summary of the article: Iran is providing refuge to around 25 leading members of the Al-Qaeda terror group including three of Osama bin Laden's sons, a German magazine reported. Some understanding of the al-Qaeda leadership and its associate groups may be required here. Saif al-Adel is a former Egyptian military officer who serves as the group's military commander and should be considered at least as dangerous as 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. According to his own writings: "We began to converge on Iran one after the other. The fraternal brothers in the peninsula of the Arabs, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates who were outside Afghanistan, had already arrived. They possessed abundant funds. We set up a central leadership and working groups," al-Adl recounted. "We began to form some groups of fighters to return to Afghanistan to carry out well-prepared missions there. Meanwhile, we began to examine the situation of the group and the fraternal brothers to pick new places for them. Abu Mus'ab and his Jordanian and Palestinian comrades opted to go to Iraq...[an] examination of the situation indicated that the Americans would inevitably make a mistake and invade Iraq sooner or later. Such an invasion would aim at overthrowing the regime. Therefore, we should play an important role in the confrontation and resistance. It would be our historic chance to establish the state of Islam that would play a major role in alleviating injustice and establishing justice in this world," al-Adl said. Saad bin Laden, meanwhile, is Osama's heir apparent and is widely viewed as both a key member of the terror network (which is why his name keeps being mentioned rather than those of his brothers) and his father's successor in the event that both Osama and Ayman al-Zawahiri are captured or killed. The al-Qaeda spokesman described in Cicero as "Abu Ghaib" is Suleiman Abu Ghaith, the network's chief of propaganda. The official position of the Iranian government is that these individuals like other senior al-Qaeda leaders such as finance chief Abu Mohammed al-Masri are in custody, though even the State Department appears willing to allow for the fact that Iran has at least tolerated al-Qaeda activity within its borders. From the 2004 Patterns of Global Terrorism: Iran continued to be unwilling to bring to justice senior al-Qa’ida members it detained in 2003. Iran has refused to identify publicly these senior members in its custody on "security grounds." Iran has also resisted numerous calls to transfer custody of its al-Qa’ida detainees to their countries of origin or third countries for interrogation and/ or trial. Iranian judiciary officials claimed to have tried and convicted some Iranian supporters of al-Qa’ida during 2004, but refused to provide details. Iran also continued to fail to control the activities of some al Qa’ida members who fled to Iran following the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Emphasis mine. It is perhaps worth noting these remarks from the 2002 Patterns as well: Iran also provided support to extremist groups in Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Iraq with ties to al-Qaida, though less than that provided to the groups opposed to Israel. Which would at least explain the presence of Uzbek extremists on Iranian soil. These are in all likelihood members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an al-Qaeda ally that has long been accused of receiving support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). As for the presence of Egyptian and North African al-Qaeda members on Iranian soil, both Egypt and Algeria have long accused Iran of supporting the terrorist groups seeking to overthrow their governments, including the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), al-Gamaa al-Islamiyyah, the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), and the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC). Saudi Arabia, moreover, has accused Iran of supporting the al-Qaeda elements who have ordered various attacks in the Kingdom, most notably the May 2003 Riyadh bombings. These are not simply American claims, they are also the official positions of the Egyptian, Algerian, and Saudi governments. When discussing issues such as Ahmadinejad's hateful and bigoted remarks, it is long past time that other issues, such as those contained in the Cicero article, be included in the conversation. Faster, please. Tracked: November 2, 2005 7:01 AM
Submitted for Your Approval from Watcher of Weasels
Excerpt: First off... any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now... here are all the links submitted by members of the Watcher's Council for this week's vote. Council link...
Tracked: November 4, 2005 11:06 AM
The Council Has Spoken! from Watcher of Weasels
Excerpt: First off... any spambots reading this should immediately go here, here, here, and here. Die spambots, die! And now... the winning entries in the Watcher's Council vote for this week are Wilson-CIA Cover Up? by The Strata-...
Tracked: November 4, 2005 1:48 PM
The Council has spoken! from The Glittering Eye
Excerpt: The Watcher’s Council has announced its selections for the posts of the last week most deserving of recognition. The winning Council post was Strata-Sphere’s “Wilson-CIA Cover Up?”. In second place was Dr. Sanity’s ...
Tracked: November 4, 2005 3:52 PM
Fly By 11/04/05 from The Strata-Sphere
Excerpt: This is going to be a blog heavy Fly By - at least to begin with.
Dr. Sanity has a great (and lengthy! - fair warning) post on how the left lost its way from their peak in the mid 1900’s to the where they are today.
At this very moment, every ...
Tracked: November 8, 2005 2:57 PM
Watcher's Council best posts week ending November 3 from New World Man - he's got a roadmap of Jupiter
Excerpt: The Watcher's Council selected these best posts from among those nominated for the week ending November 3. A three-way tie! Watcher chose Wilson-CIA Cover Up? at Strata-Sphere as this week's Council winner. In a week of tough choices I voted for A.J.'s...
Comments
#1 from stickler at 8:02 am on Oct 30, 2005
"Faster, please"? Do you mean to channel Mr. Ledeen's pithy call for region-wide invasions? If so, then by what means? Aerial bombardment? What if, as in Germany in WWII, or North Vietnam, this just weds the people closer to the regime? Can we bomb them into friendly relations with the West and Israel? What if our precision-guided munitions miss a few stockpiles? Or do you propose a full-scale ground invasion? If so, with what army? Ours seems a bit preoccupied at the moment. In either case, how will you explain gasoline rationing to the American voter, once the Iranians shut down the Straits of Hormuz? stickler: "When discussing issues such as Ahmadinejad's hateful and bigoted remarks, it is long past time that other issues, such as those contained in the Cicero article, be included in the conversation." Ledeen doesn't support regional invasions either, but that's neither here nor there. I agree that this information needs to be included in the discussion of Iran. No, Stickler (#1), I am not going to jump to the end of the entire process and try to predict how it will all come out. Such arguments quickly become reductio ad absurdum, no matter how they are argued.
#4 from TedM at 7:02 pm on Oct 30, 2005
This is an interesting article in yesterdays Telegraph. Note the connection. There is a far more alarming connection over at Gary Metz' blog. That speech about "wiping Isrsael" off the map? Whit until you see the full graphic, and the links to the Iranian government's declared, formal plans. They've issued their "Mein Kampf." It's very unambiguous. Now the question becomes what will be done about it, and whether that will come before or after nuclear weapons have gone off. Actually Joe, I'm not exactly sure why people are so surprised by Ahmadinejad's remarks to begin with. Sure, it's a lot more unambiguous and bigoted than anything Khatami ever said, but what the hell did people think that the goal of supporting Hezbollah and the Palestinian groups was? Is it equivalent to Mein Kampf? Damn right it is. But I'm not sure how that tells us anything we didn't know before about the deeply sick and twisted nature of this regime.
#7 from MG at 8:53 pm on Oct 30, 2005
1. Securing the Straits of Hormuz is not an enormously difficult problem. 2. Airstrikes on key command / control / WMD facilities of a government that is unpopular will create a short-term backlash, but will weaken the mullahcracy. Nonetheless, it is no small matter. 3. Iran has been at war with the US since 1979. The fact that this war doesn't match popular Western concepts of what war "looks like" is, I suspect, a calculated part of Iran's deception operations. MG Dan, It doesn't tell anyone who has been paying attention anything new. Note that this excludes more or less the entire liberal-left, and all of Europe. Hence the information value of having them state these things plainly and in public.
You mentioned 'Mein Kampf'? Stating things plainly and in public isn't usually enough to stir people to action. It's a very interesting situation. In the west, we are sitting on economies with GDPs in the tens of trillions. We have tens of millions of able-bodied men to fight a world war if one happens.
#11 from TedM at 2:22 am on Oct 31, 2005
Daniel, Nice post. the problem is that you see that there is and has been a war in progress. Most of the US doesn't realize it. I have given up arguing with friends and family. At this point, when I am baited by someone I respond with one or two questions. e.g. "Do you know abou Sayyid Qutb" ( I spell his name since I can't pronounce it)"What do you think the role of the Muslim Brotherhood is?"
#12 from Jim Rockford at 2:32 am on Oct 31, 2005
Stickler -- I will submit to you these things are true: 1. Iran is drifting towards war with Israel to "finish Hitler's job" and also the United States. 2. Iran has calculated that they can lose 10-15 million people to wipe out ALL Israelis completely; and seems to think that ala bin Laden a nuclear attack killing 3-6 million Americans will cause our collapse. 3. While we have political disunity and a military 40% less than Gulf War 1 (Peace Dividend and all) we retain the capability, even losing almost 10 million people and several great American cities, to put it bluntly, kill one billion muslims with impunity. 4. Once 3 or more million Americans are wiped out by a nuclear attack, America will start killing on the scale of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo, Dresden, Hamburg, and Berlin and will not stop until so many have been slaughtered that the very thought of attacking us brings terror. The Hulagu Khan solution. 5. Given such a nightmare scenario, almost ANYTHING including destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities regardless of civilian casualties or the carping of the usual suspects is both reasonable and necessary. 6. Iran tried to wage "guerilla war" to close the Straights of Hormuz against us in the 1980s. It failed spectacularly since War at Sea has an absolute priority on advanced industrial societies with extremely advanced technology AND co-operative training. War at Sea is absolutely different from war on the land; guerilla warfare simply doesn't translate on the ocean (or the air). Iran is determined to provoke a confrontation with us to rule the Gulf. Consider that Al Qaeda is nominally their Sunni arch-enemy and a heated rival for Islamism you'd expect they would fall all over themselves to ally with us and crush their Sunni Rivals (we got rid of Saddam and the Taliban, both threats to Iran). Instead they cozen bin Laden's sons and lieutenants.
#13 from Colin Howell at 4:15 am on Oct 31, 2005
Why the hell would you expect them to ally with us? Sunnis aren't their arch-enemy, infidels are. Sunnis are merely a secondary enemy. The Iranian Islamists are religious fanatics, not stupid or insane. They know that allying with us against another Islamist force could only weaken their position and power in the long run. Promoting large-scale conflict with the West may be suicide, but remember that Allah promises victory to his faithful followers. And since their whole world view revolves around being in a death battle with the West, what other option could they take, other than abandoning that world view? Which of course is unthinkable. Dan, Thomas Barnett says Ahmadinejad's "wipe Israel off the map" comment is due to his beef with Rafsanjani. "An internal political struggle breaking out into the openness of foreign affairs." He says that Americans need to grow up and think long term, strategically. That a stable Middle East, which Iran will be part of, means "Iran can get the bomb if it so chooses, and eventually, inevitably, it will have it." He says, "the only question that remains, as I have said time and time again, is: What are we going to get in return?" Ok, Barnett is one very smart fellow, but, being the Grand Strategist that he is, he may be overlooking one thing: That we can take Ahmadinejad at his word. Perhaps it's not about an internal struggle breaking into the open. Maybe Ahmadinejad is simply a mad man. That's the intangible that Barnett doesn't consider. That Ahmadinejad wants to take Iran into the "olive tree world," not the "Lexus world." Thoughts?
Glad to see you're still alive! And blogging again, no less :) As for Barnett, this may well be about some kind of internal clash between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad. Color me skeptical because of Rafsanjani's own views on the topic, but it could be. How does that change the fact that we can assume Ahmadinejad's views are pretty well shared across the Iranian political spectrum. Like I noted to Joe above, what do people think the reason they support Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists of every stripe is? An unwillingness to take one's opponents at their word was a big problem during the Cold War, with too many people, even the smart ones, wanting to turn the communists into rational actors. There's a sizeable industry in Europe pretty much dedicated to rehabiliating Iran and taking them at their word when it comes to what they want to do to places like Israel and their inhabitants would undermine too many people's arguments on how to handle Iran. Some academics are getting even loonier - go a little back and you'll see a post I did on some quacks who want to present al-Qaeda as a rational actor on the grounds that if we give them what they want then maybe they'll go away.
#16 from liberalhawk at 8:13 pm on Oct 31, 2005
' Like I noted to Joe above, what do people think the reason they support Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists of every stripe is' Musharraf MAY support LeT. I think its pretty unlikely that Perv wants to wipe India off the map. Syria supports Hezbollah, and several Pal terror groups. While the Syrian regime probably wouldnt mind Israel being wiped off the map, its hardly at the top of their agenda - theyre supporting terror groups in order to A. Establish their own dominance in Lebanon, and in the Pal territories and B. To exert leverage on Israel. It was at least POSSIBLE to beleive that Iran was playing a similar game. Saying out loud that they want to destroy Israel is something different - esp as, IIUC, no Iranian head of govt (khomeini was NOT head of govt) actually says this. It also has a certain important self referential aspect. Supporting Hezb, etc isnt necessarilly irrational for Iran, from a power politics POV. Israel clearly isnt goint to nuke Iran cause of its support for terrorism. To say something like this, at a time like this, seems irrational. IF you are rational, and want nukes, for good power politics reasons, as is argued by some, you would presumably avoid saying something like this. Someone who is irrational enough to shoot off like this, is also irrational enough to USE nukes aggressively. Again, its not just that he said this, but that he said it precisely when Iran is under scrutiny, and when the EU powers are already pissed at Iranian behavior. The leftie apologia for Iran ive seen all end up with how eevil the Europeans are for denying brown people nukes, and using words that MUST be for internal politics only, as an excuse to get upset. I myself am pleased at the European reaction, I think its leading to a reconciliation between us and the Euros on some pretty sensible planks. The odd men out are Russia and China - do nations that value sovereignty so much (vis a vis Chechnya, Tibet, Taiwan) really want to get in bed with a state thats calling for the destruction of a UN member? Can the French and Germans maintain their axis with Russia, when Russia is getting in the way of Euro aims on Syria, Iran, and elsewhere?
I'd add a 'C': having a means of deflecting attention away from Syria to events in Israel. But those are secondary benefits to what has long been the aim of Syrian regimes to destroy Israel by all means.
#18 from Rory B. Bellows at 12:29 am on Nov 01, 2005
_Dan, Thomas Barnett says Ahmadinejad's "wipe Israel off the map" comment is due to his beef with Rafsanjani. "An internal political struggle breaking out into the openness of foreign affairs."_ That's interesting, especially in light of this Iran’s hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the latest cabinet meeting in the Iranian capital that “if we were permitted to hang two or three persons, the problems with the stock exchange would be solved for ever”, according to a Tehran-based newspaper. Given that Rafsanjani controls so much of the Iranian economy, I think it's very possible this is a threat. A split in the Iranian leadership might prove useful to the Bush administration, if they play it right.
#19 from Pouncer at 2:27 pm on Nov 01, 2005
Stickler: do you propose a full-scale ground invasion? If so, with what army? Ours seems a bit preoccupied at the moment. Our army is busy. Training Iraq's army. It's too bad there isn't a neighboring state to Iran that had a history of conflict and perhaps shared an oppressed ethnic group. If only such a neighbor could have been "turned" to a US ally, then their armies brought up to modern standards, the historic causes of war reinvoked, and that neighbor persuaded to invade, that is to say, "liberate", Iran. If only Iraq were closer, for instance. Or if only Iraq and Iran had had some belligerent history. If only the Iraqi Kurds had cousins in Iran being oppressed, so that the liberation of Iran's Kurds might seem reasonable. Sadly, none of this is true. We're only occupying Iraq for their oil, and we're only rebuilding their army so we can cut and run. We've made no long term plans for the Middle East and we have no plans to do anything with the newly re-trained, re-equipped, "4-th Largest Army-in-the-World" that once fought to a ten-year standstill -- uhm, somebody, an unimportant neighboring state. Pity that. If only Iraq were more potentially useful, or if Iran only had closer bigger neighbor that could be useful to the US. So sad ...
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