Winds of Change.NET: Flux

October 31, 2005

Flux

by 'Cicero' at October 31, 2005 6:03 AM

I've been in a funk recently -- one that is apparently shared by Peggy Noonan, who recently wrote an poignant essay entitled A Separate Peace. She sees a loss of confidence that Americans have in 'the whole ball of wax' -- their own society:

I think there is an unspoken subtext in our national political culture right now. In fact I think it's a subtext to our society. I think that a lot of people are carrying around in their heads, unarticulated and even in some cases unnoticed, a sense that the wheels are coming off the trolley and the trolley off the tracks. That in some deep and fundamental way things have broken down and can't be fixed, or won't be fixed any time soon. That our pollsters are preoccupied with "right track" and "wrong track" but missing the number of people who think the answer to "How are things going in America?" is "Off the tracks and hurtling forward, toward an unknown destination."

I believe there's a general and amorphous sense that things are broken and tough history is coming.

Ms. Noonan's essay is wistful, as though she is sensing the passing of a long era. Her finger is on the pulse of our society's elite. She accounts for their resigned attitude in the fourth year since 9/11:

Our elites, our educated and successful professionals, are the ones who are supposed to dig us out and lead us. I refer specifically to the elites of journalism and politics, the elites of the Hill and at Foggy Bottom and the agencies, the elites of our state capitals, the rich and accomplished and successful of Washington, and elsewhere. I have a nagging sense, and think I have accurately observed, that many of these people have made a separate peace. That they're living their lives and taking their pleasures and pursuing their agendas; that they're going forward each day with the knowledge, which they hold more securely and with greater reason than nonelites, that the wheels are off the trolley and the trolley's off the tracks, and with a conviction, a certainty, that there is nothing they can do about it. ...You're a lobbyist or a senator or a cabinet chief, you're an editor at a paper or a green-room schmoozer, you're a doctor or lawyer or Indian chief, and you're making your life a little fortress. That's what I think a lot of the elites are up to.

Among the elite, Ms. Noonan relays an anecdote about Senator Ted Kennedy, as told by Christopher Lawford, Senator Kennedy's nephew, in his book 'Symptoms of Withdrawal':

...Everyone was laughing. Then, writes Mr. Lawford, Teddy "took a long, slow gulp of his vodka and tonic, thought for a moment, and changed tack. 'I'm glad I'm not going to be around when you guys are my age.' I asked him why, and he said, 'Because when you guys are my age, the whole thing is going to fall apart.' "

And there we have the Old Order, nursing their drinks and watching the sunset. "Who knows about the coming sunrise," they lament, looking confused. And so it is confusing -- none of us see the sunrise to come. We only see the sunset. We remember the warmth of the long day. We knit together pleasant memories and the certainty of past convictions, admiring the clarity we once had.

I think both 'sides' within the West -- left and right, European and American -- really are after the same thing: to preserve what they have. That's fine -- but it's hard to buy into the whole multiculturalist scheme as anything other than a ploy to pacify the restless masses, caught in today's cultural crossroads, intersecting in more and more places. It's just not idealistic in the least. And similarly, the exportation of democracy into the heart of the Islamic world is ultimately a bid to save ourselves, by taming the Beast in the sands abroad. I've worried that President Bush isn't really the liberal in conservative's clothing I hoped he might be. Perhaps he knows more than we do about an intractable Arab mindset -- but I detect that his heart isn't really into nation building and spreading democracy to the dark side. That was my vote in the last election. For a while since the election, I accepted President Bush's reticence. But lately, Project Democracy seems dispirited, and thin. It seems to be under siege from all sides.

Ms. Noonan concentrates on American institutions and our waning faith in them. But disenchantment is broader than America. She spoke about the presidency -- not just the president -- as possibly being unable to live up to the complex demands that focus upon that office. That perhaps the institution of the presidency itself cannot hold the rudder. I worry as much, and more broadly so: perhaps all the institutions that humanity has hammered-out over history -- the ones still officially running things -- are teetering on irrelevance and decline in the face of historical forces. Perhaps disenchantment is a global phenomenon, fueled by many things that are unique to this emerging era.

Many global institutions face similar disarray as American ones, heaving through great change. The United Nations is not above profiteering and corruption; indeed, the UN might be the the textbook case proving that multicultural institutions are the most susceptible to corruption. The European Union makes its bid for ruling Europe as a statist socialist empire with a constitution that reads like a retirement plan -- and Europeans are distancing themselves from it. And what ever happened to NATO? Sure, it's still there, but for what, exactly? Do you thank your lucky stars every night that NATO will be there to pull your derri�re out of the sling if things get thick? I didn't think so.

The Chinese Communist Party faces rising discontent; charges of corruption, graft and incompetence are a growing chorus across that huge, restless nation. The Catholic Church is humbled by an exposed history of child abuse which has dented its moral authority; the new Pope is reacting, trying to clean his house of gay priests, as if that were the same thing as child molesters. Islam, which has historical periods of tolerance, is caving into the fire breathed by its radicals, in a sign of its own internal disarray. Everywhere, once great cultures and nations are intimidated by their own coarse colonial histories, seeking penance, obsessed with recompense -- made timid when they need to be bold in the face of great challenges.

And of course, there's America's own self-doubt and confusion. Perhaps there is no such thing as homeland security, as Ms. Noonan wonders. Perhaps we're overextended. Perhaps the majority of us don't really believe that the Arab world can rise above it's hatreds. Perhaps America has too many commitments abroad and too many commitments to special interests. Too many promises to keep, and not enough money to keep them. Perhaps in our cold civil war we're outspending ourselves like we outspent the Soviets.

People perceive that the world is a caldron of misery, lapping at their front doors. Immigrants are everywhere. Many sacrificed to get this far -- only to do our laundry, build our houses, mow our lawns, walk our dogs and nurture our children. Our society would stop cold without their labor. And no doubt some of them are mad. They want theirs too. All we do is push paper around and drive SUVs, as far as they're concerned. They're not Ms. Noonan's elites, but they write history too.

Smugness abounds. I read no end of blogs whose authors exude the certainty of their political convictions. Perhaps it's called for. And yet, leadership is lacking, and tentative. Out of all the bold posturing, the righteous declarations, so few qualify or want to wear the general's stars.

The whole '2,000 Dead Americans Milestone' thing is a case and point. Out of all the positioning by Kos and LGF, and a host of similar places, I never really developed a sense of remorse for these 2,000 dead Americans -- from anyone. To me, their spat only illustrated the possibility that our soldiers' sacrifices might be in vain. Niether side persuades me that they're anything close to empathetic for the families of these dead soldiers. I only see score cards, and points to be made. Sad.

Ms. Noonan identifies our fidgeting elite -- having stockpiled their bullion, now sequestering themselves in fortresses whose ramparts must thwart the historical tides to come. She says they're resigned, many seeing no real future that they can affect. Perhaps she's right. Perhaps the old guard really is starting to sense they're out of the game. But perhaps, as well, she's fixated on the old guard, while a new guard incubates in places like the Blogosphere.

As we literally go to war to nation-build -- attempting to undo tribal cultures and endow Iraq and Afghanistan with their first constitutional governments -- our best and brightest at home (and abroad, for that matter) are laying the groundwork for new generations of social network tools that build what amounts to, well, tribes. I can tell you that the blogger Cicero has much to do with this activity, working on innovative, high-level interfaces for highly advanced social networks. While I work away on GUIs that lower barriers between people who want to socialize, I've been thinkning a lot about how technology defies the idea of borders. Barriers are lowered, whether we like it or not.

Lowering barriers can be a very good thing. Social networking is beginning to rewrite how youth culture defines itself, which has less to do with race than for older generations. Today's youth group themselves according to lifestyles, music, movies and pastimes. They call themselves Blaxican, Mexipino or Chino-latino. Our government and elite still obsess over racial identities, while technology and interracial marriage are helping erase those distinctions. How could that be a bad thing?

But while old borders are lowered, I wonder if new ones are raised. I wonder if all this social technology will just tribalize our society into a myriad of globalized subcultures. It simply might be unavoidable. In so doing, people might come to de-emphasize the validity and necessity of nationhood. It's too early to say, and there's not a thing that can be done to stop it. But I think sovereignty is on the wane in the long run -- and what's happening on the Web today is the seed. Just a hunch.

What Ms. Noonan is not seeing or understanding is that, yes, her base is shrinking before her eyes, but it will be supplanted by something else. It's going to be a difficult process, I think. I myself might be hard at work developing the tools and spaces for social networking, but I can't tell you how broad the social implications will be five, ten, or twenty years out. But I think societal transformation will be profound, and not what anyone expects.

With respect to the Peggy Noonans of this world, who I share a lot of solidarity with, I can only relay an image I have in my head. It's of a King and his son, the Prince. They go for a walk outside their castle on the hill, overlooking the vast plains of the kingdom. The sun is setting, and geese are honking overhead, flying south for the winter. It's the end of a long, resplendent day. The King puts his arms over his son's shoulders, sighs, and tells him: "Son -- someday, none of this will be yours."

I think that's where Ms. Noonan's at. She's from a generation that saw great things in itself, and in its nation. What comes next is beyond comprehension. We're in flux -- change only seems to bring about more change, over and over again. Older people want to hang on to what they have, perhaps more so than keep up with the times. I empathize -- I know that none of us on the cutting edge should be so smug as to think we're past getting cut by it ourselves. Compounding innovation exacts a heavy toll, and can leave many people behind. None of us can say what the outcome will be.

Ms. Noonan is wittnessing and lamenting the passage of an era -- one that needs to pass by. It's hard, because we are a part of that era. Looking to a waning era's elite for consolation is understandable, but it will not ease the bewilderment. New worlds are being built, while old ones fall. Somehow, we have to be brave, put away the photo albums, and engage this flux.

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"Flux"

Tracked: October 31, 2005 11:15 AM

Flu(n)x from Phatic Communion

Excerpt: Cicero of Winds of Change.Net considers a world in Flux: But while old borders are lowered, I wonder if new ones are raised. I wonder if all this social technology will just tribalize our society into a myriad of globalized...

Tracked: October 31, 2005 8:12 PM

The New Malaise from AmbivaBlog

Excerpt: There's been a lot of blog comment in the last few days on Peggy Noonan's piece in the 10/27 Opinion Journal that things are not well in America (or, indeed, in the world): I think there is an unspoken subtext

Tracked: November 4, 2005 9:14 PM

TURN, TURN, TURN. from Cold Spring Shops

Excerpt: Last week's post on Peggy Noonan's rather pessimistic column about the elites losing their way did not quite sound a Fourth Turning Alert. Others have done that. Start with Cicero at Winds of Change.

Comments

#1 from Jim Rockford at 7:11 am on Oct 31, 2005

Belmont Club has a post up about the failing of the consensus that drove the elite from 1945-1989. Cold War containment not rollback, not provoking a nuclear war with the Soviets, internal reform and an end to Jim Crow, living with a dangerous adversary and "taming" him into less of a threat.

Literally that mental model and consensus fell away with the Berlin Wall, and later the Soviet Union. It's no accident that NATO, built to contain the Soviet threat in Europe, is totally irrelevant. That the Europeans, bound to us by fear of the Soviets, are essentially useless. That the Islamic World, suppressed by Superpower Rivalry is now working on it's own Sixth Century onwards jihad to establish a world-wide Empire.

No surprise that generations raised to prevent the nuclear power standoff between the Soviets and the US has no clue how to handle the danger of a resurgent Islam (last seen in the early 1700's when a reformist Sultan briefly advanced against the Austrians and Russians).

History is larger than the period 1945-89; we are now finding that out. Years such as 1924 (Kemal Ataturk abolishing the Caliphate) or 1492 (no, the expulsion of the Moors from Granada) matter as much as the fall of Adolph Hitler or Hirohito's Surrender in May and September 1945.

#2 from Christine at 7:26 am on Oct 31, 2005

If genetics plays a role in an individuals mortality, I have about 20 years left to live. Some days, that doesn't seem like that long. On many days, I wonder if I even want it to be any longer.

I have said to friends on a few occasions; "We're in trouble, this country is in big trouble." I doubted I was the only one with this sense.

For those of us who realize the seriousness of the "world condition" right now, the fight that is going on in this country seems insane. I was not alive during WWII but, I sense that the atmosphere at home was much different than it is today.

It is one thing to fight an enemy that cannot be talked down. It's another to fight an enemy at home who seems to be the same way. This enemy at home should not even be allowed to accomplish as much as it has.

I still hold out confidence that somehow we will win. But if things don't change at home and we end up with a Democratic president, I will not feel that confidence. The atmosphere in this country combined with the atmosphere in the world is very hard on the moral.

#3 from Glen Wishard at 8:12 am on Oct 31, 2005

'Because when you guys are my age, the whole thing is going to fall apart.'

I guess when you've spent the last thirty years falling apart yourself, it must be hard to avoid the feeling that the whole world is falling apart, too.

#4 from Dan Dare at 9:55 am on Oct 31, 2005

I don't know people, maybe it is just an age thing. (Trust me on this. I am not so young myself anymore.)

If you're on the wrong side of forty or fifty, then the future just doesn't look as bright and full of possibilities as it did when you were younger.

Can I really say the world is as dark today as it was at the height of the cold war, when I recall going to bed many nights thinking that in the not-too-distant-future, the world might not exist at all any more.

What futures are we scaring ourselves with now? The world will turn Muslim? China will be the worlds biggest superpower? Oil will run out? Global warming will melt the ice caps? Bird flu will kill billions?

Say every single one of these things happened. Has not the human race survived this much and much, much worse?

Who ever said it was going to be a picnic?

Whatever happens, I will adapt. I will try to survive.

Until I don't.
(And so it goes)

#5 from Barry Meislin at 11:39 am on Oct 31, 2005

Those agenda driven perfectionists in the MSM have done their job exceeding well.

Who wouldn't be distraught after dosing on that selective tripe that passes as reportage day in day out? Who wouldn't have second thoughts, wander about in despair, want to throw in the towel, call it a day, hang up the shoes? GET ANGRY AT THE GUY IN CHARGE?

Yes, exceeding well.

You bet mistakes were made, are being made, will be made. No, things are by no means perfect.

And yet, Bush and his team are still the only sane game in town. The only adults. The only ones with their eyes essentially open. Now that isn't saying much, perhaps. Still, in the face of the relentless onslaught, it's something to be proud of; in fact, it's flat out heroic.

#6 from StargazerA5 at 2:11 pm on Oct 31, 2005

We're in the midst of a Paradigmn shift. Like most such, we don't know where it will end up until it gets there.

As for "Our elites, our educated and successful professionals, are the ones who are supposed to dig us out and lead us. I refer specifically to the elites of journalism and politics, the elites of the Hill and at Foggy Bottom and the agencies, the elites of our state capitals, the rich and accomplished and successful of Washington, and elsewhere.", I think they are finding that for a leader to lead, he has to be going somewhere that people want to follow. Where they're going, people no longer want to go. This is a problem, for them and for us.

I think the cause of much of Bush's popularity and teflon coating is that he has lead where people have wanted to follow, but I think that is becomming more and more in question for the future.

One other nitpick about "the new Pope is reacting, trying to clean his house of gay priests, as if that were the same thing as child molesters." This isn't exactly true. Unfortunately, most (though not all by any means) of the pedophiles (they don't deserve the title of Priest) tended to prey on boys and so are by definition "gay" (quotes because most gays do not prey on minors). With that trend in place, it means that the community of gay Priests will pay disproportionately because a higher percentage will have shown questionable tendencies or it wouldn't have happened in the first place.

Hang on everybody. The last 20 years or so have been us reaching the crest of the rollercoaster of change and starting on our way down. We're still a long way from the bottom, not to mention the fastest rate of change, and I suspect there will be a number of unexpected twists and turns on the way.

StargazerA5

#7 from PacRim Jim at 3:20 pm on Oct 31, 2005

You're starting to become a geezer. Every oldster bemoans how the world is falling to pieces. To youngsters, though, the world is as fresh and hopeful as ever.

#8 from lurker at 5:00 pm on Oct 31, 2005

Change is not bad, or good. It's just different. The challenges of humantiy are always changing. Success will go to those that can meet those challenges. And success may not even mean what we think it means.

Here's yet another cliche, "Life is a journey, not a destination". Many feel unsettled because our distination remains shrouded with fog. Newsflash: It's always been foggy. Do the best you can and try to enjoy the ride!

#9 from Ben at 5:04 pm on Oct 31, 2005

Baby boomers kill me.

Because THEY have grey hair and hemoroids the whole world is in a twilight.

It is ironic to me, that the boomers are throwning up their hands in despair because of the dissent and bickering in the US... a dissent and bickering that they initiatied in their pot-hazed youth!

The only reason people feel culturally defeated is the incessant doom-glooming from the left.

Culturally defeated! Culturally! Not simply strategic and tactical setbacks, but a cultural defeat.

How can the world not see that the US, despite it's problems, is just about the best superpower you could hope for? Who would be better... China!??!

Congradulations, hippies, you won. You took your own personal problems with your mommies and daddies and projected them onto the world stage.. and the world bought it.

Culturally defeated? Unreal.

#10 from David Foster at 5:24 pm on Oct 31, 2005

Not sure the various comments linking this to Noonan's age make a whole lot of sense. Most people would agree that Ronald Reagan was an optimist, after all...

#11 from Karl Gallagher at 6:46 pm on Oct 31, 2005

I've got a specific fear about things "coming apart"--that the red vs. blue hostility will grow until a real civil war breaks out in this country. It didn't reassure me that when I wrote about it in my blog the first comments were "I'm a rightie and we've got all the guns!" and "I'm a leftie and we've got guns too."

#12 from Jeffrey at 7:18 pm on Oct 31, 2005

David Foster,

I think that this quote from the post itself speaks to the idea that age may play a part in the conversation.

"And there we have the Old Order, nursing their drinks and watching the sunset. "Who knows about the coming sunrise," they lament, looking confused. And so it is confusing -- none of us see the sunrise to come. We only see the sunset. We remember the warmth of the long day. We knit together pleasant memories and the certainty of past convictions, admiring the clarity we once had."

#13 from amba at 7:34 pm on Oct 31, 2005

I am almost 60 and I am wildly exhilarated by the faltering certainty of the old elites -- both right and left. Finally, finally, the dead ideas are failing, as they must. The zombie resurrection of dead ideas wth their rouged, Ronald Reagan cheeks was what depressed me. Clearly New Deal liberalism has been the walking dead for a while, but when the conservatives raised a bunch of old ideas from the dead and called them "new" and believed it, that frightened me. When they said "We create our own reality," that was a hubris that is now shattering. Sorry, neither new agers nor neoconservatives get to "create their own reality." There is Reality! We cannot comprehend it intellectually. What we can do is face it honestly.

Only out of the flux can new, small, modest, swift and flexible, tough but adaptable ideas emerge that are the equal of the complexity we face. The old institutions and ideologies are lumbering dinosaurs. A lot of us will probably die in this process, but better to die alive than to be the living dead.

#14 from Christine at 8:03 pm on Oct 31, 2005

I think what bothers me the most right now is, the voices of those with common sense (us) are being drowned out by the voices without. I personally do not read the papers (only skim) nor do I watch television (do not own one). But, if you read the consensus from around the world, the majority of America is against the war and hate President Bush. I personally do not feel this is true, but it is also making the enemy feel as if they are winning. I am frustrated by this fact. Frustrated by the fact that the MSM is allowed to be the voice of opinion. When we know that the opinion they are spewing is wrong. When freedom of speech and the right to voice your opinion is being used as enemy propaganda, does that still make it right?

#15 from Robert Schwartz at 8:42 pm on Oct 31, 2005

Anyone who quotes Teddy Kennedy for anything purpose other than demonstrating the baleful effects of the excessive consumption of demon rum has already discredited himself.

Ms. Noonan needs to get out more and spend less time with the east coast elites.

#16 from Benny and the jets at 11:09 pm on Oct 31, 2005

Baby boomers kill me.

Because THEY have grey hair and hemoroids the whole world is in a twilight.

It is ironic to me, that the boomers are throwning up their hands in despair because of the dissent and bickering in the US... a dissent and bickering that they initiatied in their church-hazed youth!

The only reason people feel culturally defeated is the incessant doom-glooming from the right.
"The end times! Gays taking over! Have you seen The Passion yet?!"

Morally defeated! Morally! Not simply strategic and tactical setbacks, but a moral defeat. When the President of the United States demands an exemption for the CIA to torture, we have lost our moral ground and have fallen into the muck.
War crimes trials for Bush et al, a wholesale dishonorable discharge of the rotten apples in uniform; this might be the first step towards becoming the good guys again.

How can the world not see that the US, despite it's problems, is just about the best superpower you could hope for? Who would be better... China!??!
How about no one?

Congradulations, conservatives, you won. You took your own personal problems with your fantasies of the supernatural and projected them onto the world stage.. and the world bought it.

Culturally defeated? Unreal.

#17 from M. Simon at 11:31 pm on Oct 31, 2005

April 1914 is not coming back.

So what?

#18 from Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) at 1:07 am on Nov 01, 2005

I cannot strongly enough encourage you to read Strauss & Howe's 1997 masterpiece 'Fourth Turning.' We are just about on time as their Unraveling Era drifts into the Crisis Era. One quote, for flavour.

The Crisis climax is human history's equivalent to [a] typhoon ... Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened. Normally occuring late in the Fourth Turning, the climax gathers energy from an accumulation of unmet needs, unpaid bills, and unresolved problems. It then spends that energy on an upheaval whose direction and dimension were beyond comprehension during the Unraveling era. The climax shakes society to its roots. [page 258]

Another reason to read it is that it appears many key players in the Bush administration have read (and understood) it. Strauss & Howe's advice to leaders late in the Unravelling? -- attempt real reform of emerging problems, but be satisfied with marginal nibbling around the edges; accept a degree of unpopularity, whatever you do; and most importantly, try to build people's connections with government in positive ways ... because in the crisis they'll need it.

#19 from Curtis Gale Weeks at 2:36 am on Nov 01, 2005

I have wondered why The Fourth Turning has largely been absent from most Blogospheric debate. Granted, I've not read the whole Blogosphere; but still...

#20 from Rob at 5:37 pm on Nov 01, 2005

I see this completely differently.

The great problem I see is a decline in the quality of thought in America. We have become a very ignorant people over the last fifty years and when you are ignorant, you fall prey to every doom-and-gloom news story that comes along.

What percentage of adults in our country have the slightest aquaintance with history? How many of them could place WWII in the correct decade? Or has the slightest notion of how many Americans where killed in the conflict? What percentage of them have the math skills to process a statistical claim made in the media about bird flu? How many of them do you suppose even know the difference between a bacteria and a virus? Between an adjective and an adverb?

Now, go stand in line at the DMV and look around you. What is your estimate of these percentages now?

I hate it when a TV show like Lost has to incorrectly show radios working like cell phones because ordinary Americans don't really know enough about how a radio works to understand a plot point involving radios and antennas unless it is coated with the familiar workings and icons of their cell phone (or, possibly, the writers of that show are themselves ignorant, which is just as bad).

When the news media scares you with tales of the Spanish Influenza, your psyche is going to take a beating unless you are aware of the differences between medical care in 1917 and the present and the fact that Spanish Influenza mostly killed through secondary causes, like tuberculosis.

When the media spins out its "Grim Statistic" about deaths in Iraq, how do you do anything but despair if you don't have the mental arithmetic and sense of history to put that number in perspective in your head?

When they hear the phrase "evolution is just a theory", how many Americans are familiar enough with the scientific method to intelligently argue the point either way?

Ignorance makes you susceptible every kind of fearmongering and manipulation. The dumber we are, the more likely we are to be whip-sawed by world events and the easier it is for our leaders and media to simply lie to us.

It's not necessary for ALL of us to be ignorant, either. Just enough of us to set public opinion.

That funk you smell in the air is the mass aroma of WTF?

#21 from Robohobo at 3:30 am on Nov 02, 2005

What a load of B---! This is exactly why I am no longer a liberal!

The elites have always been effete snobs. They bemoan their lot now, because history have proved them irrelevant! It is and always has been the common man that makes this world worth preserving. Those who worship openly, trade ideas openly, with humility, because they know they are 'only' the common man.

Answer some questions for yourselves:

1. Why do thousands attempt the southern US border daily, if this is such a hopeless, lousy place?
2. Why do those who make it here and find some stability, immediately send for their families?
3. Why do the failed societies of this planet still want to follow our example?
4. Those who inhabit failed societies wish to leave them and where is the first place they try to get to?

Get off your pity wagon, folks, there is serious work to be done to save the planet from the greatest threat in decades. It is not time for wilted lillys, get out of the way and leave it to us 'common' men.