Monday's Winds of War: 12 Dec 2005

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.

Top Topics

• Hamas is saying that they will not renew a "truce" they had called back in March when it expires at the end of this year. The following day, Islamic Jihad also promised to end the "truce" against Israel. Khaled Meshaal, head of the political wing of Hamas told a gathering of terrorists that "The Palestinian gun will always be pointed only at the Zionist enemy and peace can only be achieved through the gun." In response, Abbas' Palestinian Authority have denounced the move.

• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again insisted that Iran will not halt their drive for nuclear fuel. Leaders from the European Union recently warned Iran against manufacturing machines that could enrich nuclear fuel to weaponized levels, and the IAEA is warning that the world is losing patience with Iran. Does the world understand the Iranian intentions?

• Pakistan's federal government has decided to conduct a major operation against religious leaders who last year asked people not to say the funeral prayers of any soldier who died in fighting rebels in South Waziristan, along the Afghan border. However, there is tension in the capital Islamabad, where law enforcement agencies are on high alert to clamp down on influential clerics, but the fear of fierce retaliation has to date prevented them from proceeding.

• The second report from the Mehlis commission has been turned over to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, and indicates that Syria is to blame for the assassination of Rafik Hariri.

Other topics today include: Hezbollah leader escapes assassination; Israeli airstrikes in Gaza; Abdullah's reform; Sharon orders strike preparations; Kuwaiti oil security; Israeli raids in West Bank; Egyptian cleric deported from US; Bolivian elections; Saudi leader killed in Chechnya; Terror arrests in Bangladesh; Suicide bomber in Afghanistan; Counterterror raids in Australia; Malaysia cracks down on extremism; Spain arrests al Qaeda suspects; al Qaeda in Albania; 9/11 suspect convicted; hijack attempt off coast of Somalia; Cyberwarfare and much more.

Iran & the Middle East

• Hussain Assaf, a senior Hezbollah instructor, narrowly escaped assassination after his car exploded seconds after he got out of it in Beirut. A Hezbollah statement said "we blame the Zionist enemy for planning and executing this attack."

• Israel is keeping alive its threat to restrict the flow of trade in Gaza if the Palestinians do not reign in terrorists immediately. Meanwhile, Hamas is alleged to have held rallies at U.N. offices and schools.

• Two Palestinian terrorists were killed in the northern Gaza Strip in Israeli airstrikes, targeting Al Aqsa Martyr Brigades in the town of Jebiliyah.

• King Abdullah of Jordan is calling on Iraqi's to elect moderates to the government and to push forward with reconstruction. Abdullah's comments came while he was in Tokyo meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

• According to a UK Sunday Times report, Ariel Sharon has ordered Israel's armed forces to be ready by March for a potential strike on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran.

• Following older threats by al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, only recently disclosed, Kuwait has boosted security around their oil installations.

• The Israeli defense forces detained 19 terror suspects in a series of raids in the West Bank, responding to the suicide mall attack last week. In the Balata refugee camp, an al Aqsa Martyr Brigades member was killed by his own bomb, as Israel rounded up 17 more terror suspects.

• A 15-year old Palestinian boy was detained after attempting to smuggle explosives through the Hawara checkpoint, south of Shechem. The detainee indicated that he was to bring the explosives to someone on the other side.

• According to a UK Guardian report, Syria was being urged by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt to relaunch peace talks with Israel. In response, the Syrian government has come out publicly and denied the claims.

• A new Palestinian law granting financial payments to the families of suicide bombers? Saddam Hussein would be proud.

America Domestic Security & the America's

• Concern is mounting over the connections between a Boston Islamic group and a high-profile Muslim activist, Abdurahman Alamoudi, after a recent statement by the federal government that Mr. Alamoudi had a "close relationship" with Al Qaeda and that he raised money for Al Qaeda in America.

• An Egyptian cleric arrested during a high-profile federal raid last year on his East Frankford mosque has finally been deported. Mohamed Ghorab, the imam or spiritual leader at the Ansaar Allaah Islamic Society on Wakeling Street, arrived in Cairo escorted by U.S. immigration agents Thursday.

• Chief Magistrate Sherman McNicolls had only two witnesses testify before him Thursday in the preliminary enquiry involving Leader of the Jamaat-al-Muslimeen Yasin Abu Bakr. Bakr reappeared before McNicolls at the Port of Spain Eighth Magistrates' Court. He is before McNicolls charged with one count of sedition, three counts of inciting the demand of money, property and the breach of the peace, and a fifth count of terrorism.

• A report from the International Crisis Group looks at Bolivia and its upcoming elections. The reports says "Bolivia is on the verge of national and social disintegration. [The elections] may be a final opportunity to start solving deep social and economic problems and profound ethnic divisions." The 2006 Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations said that a US goal in Bolivia is to "ensure that Bolivia does not become an active transit point for international terrorism". Unrest in Bolivia might attract the wrong element.

• The Federal Court of Canada has rejected a suspected terrorist's bid to throw out the government's case against him. Adil Charkaoui, 32, was trying to invalidate the national security certificate the government issued against him under federal immigration law in 2003. He also tried to have parts of the immigration law declared unconstitutional.

• Impassioned questions and comments followed a controversial speech - provocatively titled Does al-Qaida exist? - at an event hosted Friday by the Mississauga Coalition for Peace and Justice and held at the University of Toronto at Mississauga campus. Asad Ismi, a writer specializing in U.S. foreign policy in the developing world, spoke to a group of about 30 people about his views on the American intelligence community's role in the global events since Sept. 11, 2001. There was no shortage of opinions at the event. Ismi's talked about the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, in which he argued the CIA was complicit; United States foreign policy, which he said is based around American attempts to gain control of Middle Eastern oil; and about the threat of terrorist organizations, which he said are exaggerated by the U.S. intelligence community.

• Federal authorities hit with a stunning defeat in a terrorism case against a former Florida college professor are considering deporting him instead of retrying him. Al-Arian, a Palestinian born in Kuwait, was accused of being a key figure in a Palestinian terrorist group that has carried out suicide bombings against Israel. (HT: Jihad Watch)

Russia & South/Central Asia

• Police questioned eight suspects on Friday after a suicide bomber blew himself up on a crowded Bangladesh street, killing himself and six others in the latest attack blamed on extremists wanting to create an Islamic state. The suspects were detained in Netrokona town, the site of Thursday’s bombing, said police investigators who can’t be identified because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

• A leader of an opposition party (Awami League) in Bangladesh's Parliament has said that the people will launch a relentless movement to force the present four-party coalition if it fails to combat bomb terrorism. Sheikh Hasina called upon the people from all walks of life to get united and resist those elements indulging in bomb terrorism in the name of religion.

• The national dialogue on how to stop bomb terrorism in Bangladesh begins Monday in absence of the mainstream opposition parties and pro-opposition professional bodies. HM Ershad's Jatiya Party, the second largest opposition in parliament, ruling alliance partners, some minor political parties, and different pro-government organisations that include associations of lawyers, doctors, engineers, agriculturists, journalists and other professionals will join the dialogue amid boycott of the main opposition Awami League-led 14 party alliance.

• Here are the daily updates from the South Asia Terrorism Portal for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

• The latest issue of Chechnya Weekly from The Jamestown Foundation contains seven items, including a look at the history of Islam in Kabardino-Balkaria, and reaction to a recent report that Iran may be training Chechen rebels.

• A Saudi man who is the purported spiritual leader of Arab fighters in Russia's rebel republic of Chechnya has been killed in fighting, an Internet statement said Saturday. "Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdullah bin Saif al-Jaber al-Buaynayn al-Tamimi, also known as Abu Omar al-Saif, the spiritual guide of the mujahedeen (holy fighters) in Chechnya, was martyred during a fight with the Russians, the enemies of God," said the statement, whose authenticity could not be independently verified.

• Law enforcers in separate drives have arrested 16 cadres of outlawed Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) including two suspected suicide squad members across the country. Rapid Action Battalion (Rab) claims one of the suspected suicide squad members arrested yesterday in Demra in the capital is a student of economics at Jahangirnagar University (JU). Meantime, law enforcers seized two powerful bombs in Patuakhali and Sirajganj, yesterday while a bomb hoax was reported in Chittagong.

• Bangladesh's elite security force said on Saturday it had arrested the main supplier of explosives to an Islamic group waging a suicide bombing campaign to establish Islamic law in the Muslim nation. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) also said it had seized a huge cache of explosives and bomb-making equipment sufficient to make 200 powerful bombs.

• Muslim clerics throughout Bangladesh read special 'khutba' (sermon) during the Friday prayer at mosques, condemmnng the recent spell of bombings and urged the militants to shun the path of violence using the name of Islam. Special police forces were deployed by the administration at different mosques to ward off any unpleasant incident.

• A suicide bomber set off explosives near a U.S. and Afghan military convoy in the southern city of Kandahar on Sunday, killing himself and wounding a civilian passerby, a police officer said. The bomber appeared to be trying to blow himself up near an American vehicle, said Abdul Qadar, an officer at the scene.

Far East & Southeast Asia

• The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has accused the Philippines of violating a nine year-old peace accord. The accusation came at the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) being held in Saudi Arabia. The controversy surrounds ties between the MNLF and Abu Sayyaf, and recent counterterrorism action taken by the Filipino government.

• The Philippine government is optimistic that a permanent peace agreement can be reached next summer with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). MILF has been fighting for a seperate Islamic state in the southern Philippines since the 1970s, but has distance themselves from more violent groups like Abu Sayyaf.

• Australian authorities have again raided the home of Saleh Jamal, a man who in the past threatened to fly a hijacked airliner into the Sydney Harbor Bridge. Jamal is currently jailed in Lebanon.

• The Malaysian government has indicated they will tighten restrictions on publications that promote terrorism and holy war. The move is being viewed as a preventative measure to ensure that jihad is not spread throughout the southeast Asian country.

• After a five year absence, the Australian special forces will renew joint-training with Indonesia's elite forces. In early 2006, Exercise Dawn Kookaburra will focus on counter-hijack and hostage recovery.

Europe

• Spanish police have arrested seven terror suspects in the Costa del Sol region of southern Spain, on charges the group helped fund Islamic terrorism. The group may be linked to a local al Qaeda network.

• Were the London oil depot explosions a terror attack?

• The French are renewing the call to lift the arms embargo the European Union has in place on China, a move the United States opposes. According to French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, the embargo “does not reflect the reality of our relations with China, nor the reality of the strategic partnership which we are building with her.”

• According to a Human Rights Watch investigator, Poland was the CIA's main center in Europe for secretly detaining terror suspects, but they couldn't produce any proof. While the story has created somewhat of a feeding frenzy among journalists who are convinced that nefarious things are going on, Kirk H. Sowell offers a little perspective on the issue.

• Italian Intelligence and Security Services (SISDE) have issued warnings about Islamic terrorists in Albania, where they say an al Qaeda linked terrorist cell named Jihad al-Jihad, has recently appeared and maintains ties to Greece.

• A German court has convicted Mounir el Motassadeq on charges he helped the September 11th hijackers, and sentenced him to seven years in jail. Motassadeq was acquitted on 3,000 counts of accessory to murder.

• Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed, an Egyptian facing terror related charges in an Italian court next month, was caught on tape claiming the Madrid attacks and celebrating the killing of Nicolas Berg. While watching the Berg beheading, Ahmed yelled "Go to hell, enemy of God, kill him, kill him, cut it well, cut off his head."

Africa

• Papers from the INSS 2005 Africa Symposium are available online. One paper (PDF) is entitled An African Perspective on the Global Fight Against Terrorism.

• The vicious cycle of violence in Darfur has resumed, says the United Nations, with Sudan army involvement increasing. A UN spokesperson said that last week had seen both government and rebel forces launch attacks, displacing 7,000 people and killing an unknown number.

• A ship has narrowly escaped being hijacked by pirates in northern Somalia. The vessel, mv Sirchai Petroleum II, was said to be on its way to deliver fuel to fishing vessels in southern Somalia last week. The hijackers sprayed the ship with bullets, but the speed saved the ship and her 10-man crew.

• Aid flights have been grounded in West Darfur as violence escalates despite hopes for a peace deal before the end of the year. Aid workers say humanitarian access to West Darfur is the worst it has ever been. The worsening situation again coincides with peace talks being held in Nigeria.

The Global War

• This week I interviewed Sam Pender, author of "Saddam's ties to al Qaeda", "Iraq's Smoking Gun," and three more publications on the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq.

• Leaders of 57 Muslim countries have issued a warning that the Islamic world is in crisis because of the threat of terrorism. The event was hailed as a turning-point, a moment of Muslim renaissance. Using rather more mundane language, some called it a summit of moderation and modernisation. A Gulf Times article says "the OIC leaders expressed readiness to redouble and orchestrate international efforts to fight terror".

• Prince Turki Al Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, indicated the Saudi government has become increasingly convinced that bin Laden is "not as paramount" as he used to be, and may in fact not even be in charge of al Qaeda any longer.

• Former CIA station chief Robert Seldon Lady has indicated he will go to Italy if necessary and fight an arrest warranted issues by Italian prosecutors over the alleged kidnapping of an Egyptian cleric back in 2003.

• According to the Strategy Page, the U.S. Department of Defense believes that some twenty countries have established Cyber War organizations, and are trying to develop tools and techniques for attacking American military and civilian targets, via the Internet. A lot of information on the Cyber War against the United States is kept secret, but what is known is that the U.S. Air Force has taken the lead in developing Cyber War weapons.

• Torture can never be an instrument to fight terror because it is an instrument of terror, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan has said, in his annual Human Rights Day message. He decried the recent trend of countries claiming exceptions to the international prohibition against the practice and called for all states to honour the legally established ban on torture and to vigorously combat the impunity of those who perpetrate it. He also urged all countries that have not yet done so to ratify the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

• An article by Philip Cerny in the Winter issue of The Naval War College Review, entitled Terrorism and the New Security Dilemma, looks at the question of how states and great powers, acting in what is still to a large extent an interstate system, can deal with the increasingly diffuse character of threats.

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